Vote. Put pressure on politicians to do better. But more than anything. Vote.
If the polls say he's 100% going to win. Vote. If you're in a state that goes blue every time for the last 100 years. Vote. If you're in a state that goes red every time for the last 100 years. Vote.
Polls always matter, you just have to understand polls.
This is with third party options and show Biden up 2% which is probably close to margin of error.
It doesn't mean Biden has it in the bag, but it means his chances are improved.
But Biden risks the same dangers Hillary did in 2016.
People don't really want to vote for them, they just don't want trump. So there's a risk if Biden is polling too well (I don't think it will be an issue) people will stay home thinking they don't need to compromise their morals because trump will lose.
It's a dangerous game, and we wouldn't have to play it if we ran a candidate popular with Dem voters.
The margin of error for polls six months out from election, if memory serves, is about 14%.
I think people are phrasing this wrong: it’s not that the polls are worthless, it’s that it does not tell you what’s going to happen on Election Day in any real sense. They’re useful for watching trends and gauging short term changes and impact. They are useful for telling you how things are going. They do not tell you anything remotely useful about how things will be.
So there’s a risk if Biden is polling too well (I don’t think it will be an issue) people will stay home thinking they don’t need to compromise their morals because trump will lose.
That's largely how Romney lost to Obama in 2012. Republican turnout sagged in a year when both candidates' approval ratings were underwater. Mitt lost a bunch of midwestern states that a candidate like Bush or Trump could have won, thanks to his vulture capitalist career alienating blue-collar conservatives and his weird knock-off religion alienating evangelicals.
Whoever on your account team wrote this one is funny. They're right. But I love how they wrote that Biden will poll well, when the other guy has been spending weeks saying how bad he's doing.
Consistency my guys. Get your stories straight. Especially if you're going to comment walls of text multiple times every hour every day. Don't make it so obvious.
I see people saying their vote doesn't matter when they're in a highly partisan district, which is most of them.
News flash: Even the dumbest politicians can look at arithmetic. If they see their margins shrinking, they'll adjust. Or go full retard and double-down. And then get a worse beating.
I see people saying their vote doesn’t matter when they’re in a highly partisan district
I see people saying it when they're in heavily gerrymandered districts and deeply disenfranchised states. Dems have been playing the "Just go out and vote!" game in Florida for a quarter century, and Repubs keep finding new ways to yank the football. Even ballot initiatives don't work, as the Florida gerrymandered legislature just reverses out whatever voting rights or decriminalization laws the public passes.
Well said. People also need to take steps to ensure they have not been kicked off of voter rolls (the Republican dirty tricks just never end). I think sites like vote.org can help with that.
Don't vote and help their much worse fascist opponents get elected instead, which will affect the general population, not the wealthy elites. That'll teach them!
I'm not going to vote for Biden until he stops funding a genocide. You cannot say put pressure on them and vote for them no matter what. They do not give a fuck what you think if you're going to automatically vote for them. That's why the uncommitted votes in the primaries scared them so much.
Mathematically, either Biden or Trump will win, with 100% certainty.
As lamentable as it is for Palestinians, you drawing the line in the sand over foreign policy in Palestine & Israel will not help Palestinians. I would even go as far to say that Biden's policy on Israel is marginally better than what Trump's would be. The GOP is actively hostile against Palestine. At least with Biden we are getting (gentle) push-back on Israel.
So, if it's a given that either Biden or Trump will win, you have one of four options, depending on your political leaning:
Liberal and vote for Biden. Helps Biden.
Conservative and vote for Trump. Helps Trump.
Liberal and don't vote for Biden. Helps Trump.
Conservative and don't vote for Trump. Helps Biden.
I don't see any other option, but if someone has one - one that helps Palestine - I'd be interested to hear option 5.
Why the fuck is Trump even able to run? He's literally a fucking criminal, and was impeached. I dont understand how our political system or even judicial systems work at this point.
That being said, convicted "criminals" should still be able to run for any public office in my opinion. A tyrant CAN capture the judiciary and imprison their political opponents. This is in fact what happened in the Indian elections right now. This is in fact what happened in the US elections in the early 1900s, where a socialist candidate ran for President from prison. What was his crime? Striking when the State had deemed it illegal to do so.
Happened in Brazil too in 2016. Corrupt prosecutor (now congressman) worked with corrupt judge (who later became justice minister and is currently a senator) to imprison Lula. He couldn't run for the presidency and Bolsonaro got it. Later, the Supreme Court found that the case was based on lies and there were coordination between the prosecutor and the judge and they reinstated Lula's freedom and political rights.
But now, the tables have turned, and after Bolsonaro's actions in the failed coup on 2022, the Supreme Court took away Bolsonaro's political rights and he can't be a candidates for any office until 2030.
I'd like it if anyone convicted of fraud / criminal deceit / murder could never be president, but as our nation's common sense appears to have withered and died, the intent would eventually be twisted to suit some nefarious purpose.
Those people never realized their stance is just as idiotic as "I cross the street without looking both ways because if they run me over, they'll have to pay"... or "I have the seat belt on, I can crash at top speed and nothing will happen to me"
Thought leaders have been raising this issue for years. Among those calling for barring criminals from running for office: some guy named Donald Trump.
There are no hard requirements for being president beyond those listed in the Constitution:
Be a natural born US citizen
Be at least 35 years old
Have resided in the US for 14 or more years.
That's it. The framers of the Constitution presumably felt being a convicted felon would be enough for an electorate (or the electoral college, at least) to simply not vote for that person.
also this prevents a rogue prosecutor and judge from convicting a presidential candidate and blocking them from running. this way it is up to the people, whether the conviction is legitimate or not.
to be clear i am not saying trump’s conviction is illegitimate, just speaking generally. i could definitely see a world where trump pushes for this with a Democrat candidate (remember all the “lock her up” stuff?). i hope the legal system is robust enough to appeal a rogue situation but at some point it may not be.
He IS a felon. But while he went through the impeachment process several times, he was never convicted. And there is no rule or law that says a felon can't be president.
While voting for Trump, or even entertaining his views, is a red flag warning. Like it or not, he is legally entitled to run. Perhaps the rules and laws should be changed. But to do that would require either a unified congress or a super majority of a party willing to do so. And I suspect, that as it currently stands, neither side wants to limit themselves from gaining the power and status of national or state office brings to them for any reason.
it could also be an amendment to the constitution if enough states agree but that’s probably even less likely.
and i’m not sure it should be. i could definitely see a world where trump pushes for conviction of a Democrat candidate (remember all the “lock her up” stuff?). i hope the legal system is robust enough to appeal a rogue court situation but at some point it may not be. And elections are time sensitive, would the appeal even finish before the election?
flawed as it may be this could be the best solution to guard against authoritarianism.
Because nobody is actually stopping him. Republican state level leaders all love him. Dems are too terrified to threaten him with more than a wrist slap. The police are in his corner. Big Business is bankrolling him. The Media keeps accidentally falling face first onto his dick. And 1:3 Americans still insist he's better than The Other Guy.
So he's still listed on all the ballots. He's still the GOP's nominee. And if he wins the lion's share of electoral college votes (by hook or by crook) he's going to be the President in January.
In Germany, if you're in jail you can't be elected into office. You can however always cast your vote even from jail (except for rare and extreme political crimes such as terrorism, starting a war and such)
I find it exceedingly hard to believe that a conservative will not vote for Trump when it really comes down to the day. I think there are plenty that will say they won't all the way up to that point though.
There are plenty of Conservatives who aren't voting for Trump, they just get drowned out by the extremely loud cultists. Just look up Republicans against Trump.
I think a substantial number of voters are going to hold their noses and vote for the shitty candidate their party presented.
It'll be interesting to see how many people stay home compared to prior elections. People are super political and angry for a variety of reasons, but the choices are awful.
There's definitely going to be a shift back in his direction amongst the faithful as conservative media does its work, but the thing to look for is whether than holds for low-information "undecideds" who make up about a third of the electorate. Depending on how much his case stays in the media, how much it affects his own ability to reach voters (i.e., does he get sentenced to prison pending appeals? Does he end up under house arrest with a parole officer looking over his shoulder?), and if people like the Minutemen or Proud Boys engage in violence over it, people in the middle who might have otherwise voted for him on the basis of "economy feel bad, maybe different big man make economy feel better?" might continue to peel away from him, and that's a greater risk to his chances than what the diehards will or won't do.
Wow, it's almost like putting the entire weight of the RNC behind a convicted felon in a rematch against the guy he already lost to once in order to control the voting power of the cult that formed around him is, dare I say it, a bad political move? Like, such a bad political move that even somebody who knows absolutely nothing about politics should have been able to see this one coming?
Imagine how detached from reality you need to be to genuinely believe that getting slapped with a felony conviction will somehow help your campaign.
I agree with you. But I just want to point out that we are far, far past the "imagine if" stage. At this point in time, it is "witness in reality" how detached from reality Trump supporters are.
"Imagine if" sounds dismissive and complacent. These people are an actual threat to everyone, including themselves.
If you aren't angry about the shit these fucks are pulling, then get angry; if you are already angry, get angrier. Then go out and vote against them.
I wouldn’t exactly claim 2% polling gains as a big victory, tbh.
Its preferable to the 5-pt lag he was suffering a month ago. But nothing to brag about. Hillary squandered a 10-pt lead in the month before the general election, as the media turned into a "Buttery Males" feeding frenzy.
It works on multiple levels, too. Thelonius Monk's style was all about embracing dissonance, and Trump is a walking, breathing, dissonance machine.
Monk's dissonance was sonic, and Trump's is cognitive, but it still works.
*Edit: it works with album titles too! "Felonious Trump: Alone in Manhattan" is fucking hilarious.
Also precludes him from military funeral honors, which means anything he does get is invalid.
It means a lot to us that deployed that a draft dodging bitch like Trump would lose that entitlement. Oh, and if you vote for Trump, You support a draft dodging bitch so fuck you.
According to the 538 podcast I was listening to, he isn't technically a convicted felon yet. The judge has to approve the verdict and enter the final judgement first.
This actually is an improvement for Biden who had been losing several of these.
If Trump takes either PA or MI, it's game over. He only needs one of them to win.
After that, Trump needs any 2 of the remaining 4 states to win and Biden needs 3/4.
If Biden takes Wisconsin and Minnesota, and Trump takes Arizona, that means it will all come down to New Mexico and we have ZERO useful polling out of New Mexico, absolutely none.
I'm excited for RFK to take a couple states and Congress votes in Trump. That's not going to be a shit show at all. And I know that's what's going to happen because we're in the timeline where things just keep getting worse. I think we split from the prime timeline sometime around Reagan.
The US is mostly empty space, sparsely inhabited by republicans. Democrats are often gathered in major population centers and seem less visible in this form of representation, due to their geographic concentration, but that’s a misrepresentation.
This graphic better illustrates this, representing the 2020 presidential election (from NYT)
Rural populations lean red. Not exactly sure why that is. I guess contributing factors are that rural people tend to be more religious, bigoted, "independent" of public infrastructure and community, and pro-gun. I think Republicans also give more lip service to rural economic conditions, and visit rural parts more often. Democrats seem to largely ignore rural America, and even sometimes express contempt for them.
Every bit of news around (which old fuck is in the lead) is complete horseshit. Real polls can no longer be done. There's an insane self selection bias and beyond that there's an inherent participation bias.
This is a big deal. I'm extremely excited to get a look into these data. This would be an INCREDIBLE thing considering that Biden has been lagging Trump in the polls for over 450 days.
And whoever tells you polls don't matter has their head up their ass. Polls do matter, a lot, especially this far out. People aren't a monolith. People do change their minds and perspectives.
Apparent viability matters. Even a 2-5% hit in polling to Trump can take him from the range of viable to non-viable.
And yes, polling is flawed. In 2016 and 2020, the polling massively underestimated support for Trump. We need to keep this in mind when we look at these numbers,.
Keeping in mind that the trajectory of Bidens polling was into the carpet, pretty much since the inauguration.
If Biden can shift this towards an upward trend, he's suddenly back in the game. Thats a sea change. Thats huge.
Polls matter a lot when they start moving. There are plenty of people who pay no attention at all to news or politics. and those people are slowly finding out that Trump is now a convicted felon and may soon be wearing an orange jumpsuit.
No matter how the "Law and Order" GQP attacks the American Criminal Justice System, western societies have centuries of experience dealing with convicted felons. It is a stain that won't wash out.
Agreed. I'm holding back to do any real analysis of this for about 10 more days.
People love to say polls suck, they don't mean anything, its total none-sense, etc. Interestingly its always when their candidate is losing.
Now that these polls are shifting, my guess is the dorks who can't tell up from down start shifting their stories, and soon after that, they'll be pretending it was always their view.
Polls are important, especially in terms of this far out, and especially in-terms of the 'appearance' of electability. These are the weeks and months where momentum builds. A sudden breakout, or sudden drop in polling numbers is extremely consequential.
I'm all for protest votes and sending a message IF you don't live in a swing state. People who live in swing states have the privilege of their vote actually mattering in the grand scheme. Please, please hold your nose and vote for Biden. We non-swing staters can take care of sending messages from the safety of our deep reds and blues.
Man, I'd love to be an American right now, they have to choose between a senile old man and a convicted criminal to be their leader. It sounds like it came straight from a comedy skit.
President Joe Biden has overtaken his Republican challenger Donald Trump in three battleground states, according to polls five months before the presidential election.
In March, the incumbent and the former president won enough primary races to secure, respectively, the Democratic and Republican nominations in the 2024 presidential election.
Polls have so far shown that the results will be tight as the pair are statistically tied in most surveys, or enjoying only marginal leads.
However, speaking to Newsweek Todd Landman, a professor of political science at Nottingham University in the U.K., said it was "still too far out from the election" to read much into swing state polls.
He said: "The race remains highly volatile, and it is still too far out from the election to make any firm conclusion from changing polls across these swing states."
"The Hunter Biden proceedings in Delaware are just underway and there is a very long time to go politically, with many unknown events that will have effects on voter preferences and choices at the national and state level," he said.
The original article contains 538 words, the summary contains 176 words. Saved 67%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
"The Hunter Biden proceedings in Delaware are just underway and there is a very long time to go politically, with many unknown events that will have effects on voter preferences and choices at the national and state level," he said.
Couldn't we just vote by phone now? It's just a suggestion anyway... I mean, our vote is just a suggestion, not actually a vote. I vote Biden because the guy is not crazy. But could we also get started on looking for a person younger than 30 to be president? Maybe a woman?
That's a rule that should stay. They are literally no qualified candidates under 35. There are barely any qualified candidates over 35! There needs to be an upper limit though. At 70 IRAs force you to take withdrawals; it should be the same for the president.
As someone with decades of experience in the tech industry we should stay as far away from electronic voting as possible. I know the sort of people who work on government systems and do not trust them or their code.
It's less than 200 million votes, being counted and recounted in parallel by people all over the country. The problem of scale isn't big enough to justify the security risks. I'm willing to wait a week to make sure the count is accurate and true with paper ballots.
Confirmation bias on full display. Downvote all polls and discredit them if they show trump beating Biden. The other way around and they are credible polls and up voted.
This is why we see no difference between BlueMAGA and MAGA
There are no both sides. It's one side One is openly racist and bigoted. The other is covertly racist and bigoted. But your blinders prevent you from seeing your own party is racist and bigoted
Crazy how, in a country with 255 million (in 2020) citizens of voting age, more people will come out to vote against a wannabe dictator. What could possibly possess people to want to protect their rights, right!? Must be fake.