I am still at work and wont get to this till the weekend, but I was running some aggregate statistics looking at '12, '16, and '20 at the precinct level.
I have the data pulled, but I need to aggregate it.
Effectively, I'm looking at demographic shifts and mapping them to outcomes. I have the data, I just need to do it.
Oh dont get me wrong. Until I finish the work I have on my plate and can really dig into the data, its pure hopium.
I was only able to run some very preliminary stats, but in the aggregate, a move in votership of 3-5% might be plenty. It was less of a difference than that which put Obama in the white house.
But plenty doesn't matter; where plenty happens is what matters.
Agree to disagree on the power she has, and I know very, very well how all this works.
I think you are failing to appreciate the role of rhetoric in leadership and politics and how things actually work. The job is ENTIRELY rhetorical and the job of the President is to move public opinions in specific ways toward policy positions they want them to take.
Everything after the rheotoric is an afterthought.
She's still part of an administration that can do policy. The job of president is a purely rhetorical position. Her job is and will be to move people to policy positions.
If she can move Joe Biden to a better policy on Gaze/Israel, she wins this election.
I've been saying this since Friday.
I have reason to think Florida is in play.
I'm way, way, way less worried about those states than I am MI, and WI.
MI and WI should lnt even be competitive for Trump. The speech was a good start, we're gonna need actual action to bring Muslim voters back into the fold.
The black community has rallied around Harris in a way not seen since 2008. I've got too much day job work rn, but my first pass on some data says "fuck it, shoot for Florida too". Obama won Florida twice and Trump really only won it in the margins.
But without WI and MI, it's all for naught.
Last of last weekends dough balls
Olive oil, garlic, nutmeg, Parmesan, mottz and basil.
I think I went half a cycle too long in the oven. I'm not sure the frequency of rotation but I want to get a timer in the pizza kitchen.
Bruh I said I'm down to 6.
And can you blame me?
I mean look at them..
I mean, its so fucking ridiculous to think Trump would swap out Vance.
But then.. would he?
He's crazy. And he HATES people who don't get ratings. That's like, his entire thing.
Look I had to find the video and confirm I heard it right the first time.
The guys says "I'm going to fucking shoot you in the face".
He then shoots her in the face.
Deal made. Mark it in the books. I should prob just send you the cash now cus that bet is DUMB and ridiculous.
But also. DAMN Vance seems like shit on stage. Trumps gonna fucking HAAAAAATE that.
NIGHT SCHOOL: Donald Trump LIES About Shooting?! Justice for Sonya Massey; Kamala Harris FIRES BACK!
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Yeah idk man. I'm not saying you are wrong. I mean, I need a good odds ratio to get me to hand over my 20 bucks this easily.
I'm just saying after the first few events of Vances, I'm at least putting the possibility on the table.
And if you don't have any money, this is a great way to make an easy 20 bucks.
No if you take the bet and I lose, I owe you 20 bucks.
If Vance does not stay as VP, and whoever replaces him polls worse, you pay me 4000.
Its very easy money. Vance is definitely staying the VP. You should take the bet.
Yeah idk. This was a criticism that I brought up of the fundamentals in lemmys structure early on: it selects for, effectively, clones of "whole reddits", when it should be set up to support more balkanized instances.
Basically, lemmy.ml's c/Politics is functionally redundant to .worlds c/politics; but thats by design.
What I think would be better would be adding tagging and taking federation a step further. Every post needs a 'tag'; we steal that part from mastadon. It can have many, but it needs at least one, say #politics in this example.
Then, on instances, federation happens both at the instance level but also at the community level; communities can federate with other communtiies. But all posts get #tagged on the way in the door. Communtiies can then federate or defederate at will, and if neccessary, a community can "branch"; for example, maybe they want to split off US politics from politics; then you grab all the posts with the #US.
As far as an abuse vector. Thats just hang wringing. IF your mods are that abusive for a large sub, you've got way bigger issues. Which, if it did ever happen, is something that "forking" would solve. Mod on a power trip? No problem. Fork the community.
Well its about fucking time. Reuters/ Ipsos results will be in next week.
Lets see if MI/ WI get back on the table and if MN is still a toss up. Its good strong rhetoric but the US has been on the wrong side of this issue for 9 months. One speech doesn't change that and there is damage to be fixed, but its always a first step. We froze Russian assets to fund the rebuilding of Ukraine. Should we freeze Israelli assets to pay for the rebuilding of Gaza? Lets hear some policy proposals.
I meant in a technical sense. As in, hey here is a community with a mod on a power trip. I'm going to clone it, it lives here now: [email protected]
For example, we could have cloned this sub and its contents and merged it into c/politics.
Ok seriously, what odds will some one give me that Vance doesn't stay as VP?
10 to 1?
I know its ridiculous. Its absolutely fucking ridiculous. Like they had the convention. This should be "done".
If any one is will to take it, I want 200 to 1 on a parlay that Vance both a) does not stay as VP, and that b), whoever he gets replaced with does even worse in the polls.
I'll put $20 down and this is free money for any one willing to take it.
Lemmy & the fediverse needs to be more modular.
We need.. something like a "transfer, merge, fork, split" for communities.
For example, if these guys are just going to nuke that content, another instance should have the opportunity to either fork it, or merge it with another community. Its mostly the same stuff as would have been in c/Politics here.
And what it does now, is it puts even more editorial power in the hands of fewer people (ones that ml probably) don't vibe with.
Classic boneheaded decision.
Seems like lemmy.ml is really collapsing in on itself. Overall not good for the general health of the fediverse. We need large "sibling" instances rather than monoliths like .world, which is to say nothing of the politics of the instance. The fewer "medium" to "large' instances are, the more reliant the whole system becomes on "very large" monoliths like .world, which overall weakens the integrity of the network.
This also highlights the destructiveness of toxic moderation. There is plenty of it here too, but there needs to be some kind of accountability/ redress if open & free communities are going to be a long term project. Not really a big deal in the long run and something we'll just have to keep working on.
NIGHT SCHOOL: Will Kamala Harris Shift on US-Israel Policy, Netanyahu Addresses Congress & MORE!!!
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Lemon LIVE Special | BLACK MEN BREAK INTERNET FOR KAMALA! - July 23rd, 2024
Hey there Lemon Heads! Join Don this evening at 8pm ET to hear all about the biggest news stories of today. Tonight, Don will be sitting down with the Founder, President, and CEO of @KAIROSDemocracyProject, Michael Blake, Professor of Political Science, Dr. Chris Parker, and Founding Partner of HIT Strategies, Terrance Woodbury. The Democratic Party is quickly becoming united behind Kamala Harris. Last night, thousands showed their support at The Black Star Network's "Black Men for Harris" event. But can she win over voters that may have been leaning away from Biden? Tune in to hear all about the upcoming election, trends among voters, and the increasing support for Kamala Harris!
NIGHT SCHOOL: Can Kamala Harris Beat Trump?! Democrat Endorsement Holdouts, & MORE!!! (7/22/24)
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Modifying my Qstove to take a pizza steel
Hey all,
I modified my Qstove to take a pizza steel instead of engineered stone and am sharing the results here.
Monte Carlo approach to looking at Bidens chances.
This is an approach I've been using since last November to put Biden's polling in a historical context. I'm using the Gallup approval rating dataset because its the longest, deepest single source dataset where the same question "Do you approve or disapprove of the way [current president's name] is handling his job as president?". Its been going on since the 40's, but has remained extremly predictive of the next president.
Previously, I presented some results (March) in the c/Politics community where using this approach, I said that Biden had between a 5-15% of winning the election. At that time, Biden was polling higher and there was more time between now (then) and election day.
I've re-run the simulation with updated numbers and am presenting them here.
First, get the mean and standard deviation of how approval ratings for past presidents have typically changed leading up to an election based a 30 day window around the current date. I then compare them to a 30 day window at election day, and get back a distribution of shifts: the typical range over which a presidents approval might change between now and the election
Next, I calculate a mean and standard deviation of approval ratings for incumbent Presidents who win their second term. We kind-of have to stick with incumbent presidents, based on the nature of the data. There really is no way to ask the Gallup pole question of non-sitting presidents or candidates.
Using these two distributions, I take a sample from the 'shift' distribution, and add it to Biden's current polling.
I then calculate the probability this new polling value would have come from the "Incumbent presidents who won election" distribution, effectively giving us the probablity, that based on extant polling, Biden can get into an approval range not-disimilar to Presidents who won re-election. Based on this approach, I'm getting an average probability of Biden winning the election at around half a percent. This is down substantially from March, where I had him at at between 5-15% probability of winning. At that time, he was both polling better, and there was more time between March and the election for him to improve.
Using this approach, a Biden victory is currently standing at between a 5 and 6 sigma event. To put it into context, last years historic rate of ice-melting in the arctic was also a five sigma event.
Bonus figure:
The distribution of Presidential polling for sitting presidents who did not win re-election:
New Nate Silver predictions are out as of today. Figures reproduced here for those who lack access (all using data provided by Nate Silver)
So I'm going to try and stay true to Nate's blog-post, but I see his predictions as too important to be pay-walled (especially consider how 538 basically isn't 538 any more since they don't use Nate's model). All of the figures in this post are my own and made using Nate's data and were made in R using ggplot. Just simple reproductions for the purposes of discussion. I didn't do all of them, just the big headline figures.
If you are in Dark Mode (as you should be) you may have to right click the figures and look at them in a separate tab.
Figure 1: Who is ahead in the polls.
Figure 2: Who is ahead in the polls (inset to recent weeks).
Table 1: State and national polling.
Table 2: Who is favored to win the Presidency?
Figure 3: How each candidate's chance of wining has changed.
Figure 4: Probability of Winning Presidential Election.
Keeping everything editorial out of the post. These are basic reproductions of Nate Silvers recent post using data he provided, to support having a discussion.
Majorities of voters express dissatisfaction with the candidates. And 63% of voters describe both Biden and Trump as “embarrassing.”
The rise of UAW President Shawn Fain has been met with alarm in powerful corridors
> The federally appointed monitor tasked with overseeing the United Auto Workers, Neil Barofsky, is ratcheting up his conflict with UAW President Shawn Fain, announcing another investigation into the union leader who rose to national prominence amid the successful “Stand Up Strike” against the Big Three automakers. > > Yet newly unveiled documents suggest Barofsky’s pursuit of Fain has less to do with concerns over union self-dealing and more to do with the politics of Israel-Palestine. > > Barofsky was appointed in 2021 as the result of the Department of Justice-led consent decree put in place in lieu of prosecution of the union itself for rampant corruption, following prison sentences for two consecutive UAW presidents.
The decision to withhold such enormous sums of money is one of the most concrete examples of the fallout from President Biden’s poor debate performance at the end of June.
> Some major Democratic donors have told the largest pro-Biden super PAC, Future Forward, that pledges worth roughly $90 million are now on hold if President Biden remains atop the ticket, according to two people who have been briefed on the conversations. > > The frozen contributions include multiple eight-figure commitments, according to the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation. The decision to withhold such enormous sums of money is one of the most concrete examples of the fallout from Mr. Biden’s poor debate performance at the end of June. > > Future Forward declined to comment on any conversations with donors or the amounts of any pledged money being withheld. A Future Forward adviser would say only that the group expected contributors who had paused donations to return once the current uncertainty about the ticket was resolved.
Jeffries meets with Biden as discontent grows among House Democrats
Key quotes:
> House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) met with President Biden Thursday night to relay the sentiments of the House Democratic Caucus regarding his reelection bid, as concerns grow within the ranks about the incumbent’s ability to beat former President Trump in November. > > The meeting — revealed in a letter to colleagues Friday morning — came after Jeffries spoke with a large swath of House Democrats in the two weeks since last month’s debate, which prompted concerns about Biden’s viability at the top of the presidential ticket. . The meeting took place after Biden’s high-stakes press conference that evening, a source familiar told The Hill. > > Jeffries said he passed along the “full breadth” of thoughts he heard within his caucus.
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez suggests Biden should resign and drop out of presidential race
Not sure if this violates rules, but this is breaking news and the primary source. Local news video.
17th house Democrat calls for Biden to step down. Post NATO-news conference, 6:30 Pacific Time
Donald Trump’s jailed former adviser dragged Joe Biden’s recent performances.
Key quote:
> Even from behind bars, Steve Bannon’s message is clear: Republicans want Joe Biden to stay in the presidential race. Why? Because they know it will be better for Donald Trump. > > In an email interview with Matthew Boyle from far-right Breitbart News, the former Trump adviser was asked what he made of the Democrats sticking with Biden amid widespread criticism of the president’s performance in last month’s debate and the calls for him to drop out of the presidential race. > > “So we got the candidate we want … and the country is stuck with a nonperforming cadaver,” Bannon replied.
Pelosi moving behind the scenes to get Biden to reconsider presidential run
Key quotes:
> Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is working furiously behind the scenes to put pressure on President Biden to reconsider his place at the top of the 2024 ticket, according to a number of Democratic lawmakers familiar with her efforts. > > The Speaker emerita is talking to a broad swath of House Democrats — from front-liners in tough districts to hardened veterans with institutional clout — to pump the brakes on the notion that Biden should definitively be the party’s nominee heading into November, these lawmakers said. > > Pelosi has not said Biden should exit the race, but the lawmakers said she harbors deep concerns about Biden’s ability to defeat former President Trump, and she’s fighting to prevent the party from rubber-stamping Biden’s candidacy before there’s a broader discussion about the potentially damaging consequences of that decision.
Note: This is a "breaking" story, as in, its been leaked and is just now showing up on multiple outlets.
If Democrats want to choose a new nominee, experts don’t believe the Heritage Foundation can stop them — but that may not be the point.
Key quotes:
> President Joe Biden and his campaign are insisting he will stay in the 2024 race, despite a rough debate last week in which he looked feeble and struggled to complete his thoughts several times. With Democrats increasingly unsure that Biden should remain the party’s nominee, the conservative Heritage Foundation is pledging to try to block the Democratic Party from replacing Biden on the ticket in key swing states. > > In a June 21 memo, the Heritage Foundation astutely predicted that Democrats might wish to force out Biden “if he freezes at [the] debate.” Noting that “the mechanisms for replacing him on ballots vary by state,” the memo says: “There is the potential for pre-election litigation in some states that would make the process difficult and perhaps unsuccessful."
Speaking on MSNBC's 'Morning Joe,' former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sends President Biden a rare public signal about the election.
Key quotes:
> Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, one of the most influential voices in President Biden’s sphere outside of his family, sent a rare public signal Wednesday morning that suggested she is trying to nudge him to consider dropping out of the election. > > “It’s up to the president to decide if he is going to run,” she said on MSNBC. “We’re all encouraging him to make that decision because time is running short.” > > Pelosi sandwiched her comments between praise for Biden and his record. But Pelosi is notably careful and calculating in her public comments and well aware that Biden has repeatedly and forcefully said he has already made that decision. She spoke on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Biden’s favorite cable news show and the same venue where on Monday he gave one of his most defiant declarations that he would remain in the race.
In a video, ABC News anchor George Stephanopoulos tells someone in New York that he doesn't think Biden 'can serve four more years.'
