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A Polling Risk for Trump
  • Biden wins just three-quarters of Democratic-leaning voters who didn’t vote in the last cycle, even as almost all high-turnout Democratic-leaners continue to support him.

    This trend illustrates the disconnect between Trump’s lead in the polls and Democratic victories in lower-turnout special elections. And it helps explain Trump’s gains among young and nonwhite voters, who tend to be among the least engaged.

    Ok, so Trump is cornering the loudest people who shout their opinions at pollsters but don't vote: basically morons. Makes sense to me.

  • What policy or program would you pay more taxes to support?

    You can't cut any taxes or programs to fund your idea. Nothing else in your government is going to change. It can't be a tax that you avoid somehow. The money comes from you and similar people in your situation. Don't try to get around it in some way.

    What would you pay more taxes to support?

    Now that DuckDuckGo is out. Give me your search prompts and I'll answer them as best I can. That includes images (based on what I have saved on my PC). So what is it you wish to know or see?
  • Pictures are actually a bad idea in many places. Many companies just throw out resumes with pictures because they can easily introduce bias against people who don't look "good", whatever that means in the local area.

    HR is the first department to see the resumes and they will avoid lawsuits at all costs.

  • [Interview] Signal's Meredith Whittaker on the Telegram security clash and the 'edge lords' at OpenAI
  • You are missing the point. They don't care about black-owned businesses. That's an excuse to distract you.

    For any excuse a Republican gives you, ask "would you be willing to spend tax dollars to fix that problem?" There's only two reasons they will say yes (I thought up a second one after my last comment):

    1. They will make money personally on the scheme.

    2. They will propose tax cuts to "fund it" that result in defunding other programs. These cuts will be greater than the program funded, resulting in net tax cuts.

  • [Interview] Signal's Meredith Whittaker on the Telegram security clash and the 'edge lords' at OpenAI
  • It doesn't matter. Republican words and proposed policies are justifications to confuse you. It's an excuse to support the ideas of rich Republican donors, who are idolized by poor Republicans.

    The only real policy of the Republican party is "cut taxes for the rich". That's their number one idea. The only time they raise taxes is when their donors will benefit monetarily from the taxes. Look at all their statements in this light.

    Don't ask for statistics; ask if they would support higher taxes to benefit black-owned businesses. The answer will definitely be "no".

  • UN, Amnesty International and Indigenous Peoples Denounce Carbon Markets and IMF’s Whale Offsets
  • Carbon markets have recently begun expanding into oceans. Since whales’ bodies temporarily absorb carbon dioxide, the International Monetary Fund ... contends that whales can generate carbon credits and are “Nature’s solutions to climate change.”

    Interesting idea. I would say that the problem isn't counting whales in this. The carbon credits are probably too cheap, and who is getting the money? If each whale generated a billion dollars a year for a tribe, I'm sure they would have less of a problem with it.

    Wouldn't this encourage supporting the whale population? Isn't this generally a good thing? How does this hurt the whale?

  • Russia’s latest offensive into Kharkiv Oblast is stretching Ukrainian defenses
  • But Emil Kastehelmi of the Finnish Black Bird Group said that in Lyptsi, Ukrainians “used depth to their advantage. They pulled out from the most difficult border villages, and are now defending in places where they can better use the terrain.”

    “Ukraine has been able to significantly reduce the speed of the attack, and Russia hasn't been able to gain more than a few fields after their initial success,” he said.

    I guess Russia will have to learn the hard way why Ukraine defeated Napoleon and Hitler. You expend valuable troops and supplies and all you have to show for it is some fields in Ukraine. And sanctions too.

    They went from a three day operation taking the whole country, to "well maybe we'll camp out in a field a few miles from the border". You can't defeat Ukraine, because they won't give up. It's literally throwing money and lives away.

  • China testing ability to ‘seize power’ in second day of military drills around Taiwan
  • To scare Taiwan into capitulating without firing a shot. "Speak softly and carry a big stick." China is not going to invade Taiwan. They literally can't risk damaging anything on the island. They need the people there to accept them willingly.

    China is not as dumb as Russia. Their leaders are venal and power hungry, but not stupid. They know the thing that keeps them in power is economic growth. If they don't have that, they can't control their population. An invasion of Taiwan would put racheting sanctions on their economy, slowly strangling it.

  • China testing ability to ‘seize power’ in second day of military drills around Taiwan
  • The ministry said China sent 19 warships around Taiwan’s perimeter, 16 marine police vessels and 49 warplanes, of which 35 crossed the median line, the de facto border between China and Taiwan.

    Lol, that's it? Taiwan is bigger in area than 9 US states and has 24 million people. It's taken China more than 19 warships and 49 planes to conquer uninhibited islands.

  • Taoiseach tells Israeli public: ‘IRA was never the people of Ireland and Hamas is not the people of Palestine’ – The Irish Times | Ghostarchive
  • The IRA were terrorists who killed their own people. They literally killed other Irish people, including other IRA sects. Look up the IRA leaders; a lot of them died in IRA-ordered bombings or assassinations. There was no unified IRA.

    That's why the president of Ireland is denouncing them. That's what the article is about. The British being bad doesn't mean the IRA was good. They can both be bad and there are more than two parties in every situation.

  • Hacked data reveals which US gun sellers are behind Mexican cartel violence
  • You might be wondering why this information isn't public already. Republicans passed a law to keep this information private. Yes, they're protecting the identity of criminals selling guns to cartels.

    Fucking vote

  • Haley says she will vote for Trump over Biden
  • Don't waste your time. He values hierarchy and emotions, not words or policies. Words are just excuses for conservatives. They will never be convinced by them.

    Original conservatives were not fighting for George Washington in the American Revolution. They were Loyalists, Monarchists. They fought against change. All the eloquent words of the Founding Fathers didn't convince them because they didn't care about words.

    Conservativism is literally anti-American. Don't use words. Vote. Convince other liberals to vote. Volunteer for a candidate that you like and support their candidacy in the primary.

    Fucking vote.

  • Rishi Sunak announces UK general election for Thursday 4 July
  • If your campaign is only 6 weeks, you have to be campaigning all the time too. Do you think people just say "oh there's an election in 6 weeks? Maybe I'll run for office!"? They have to have everything ready to go immediately. All politicians are campaigning all the time.

  • Rishi Sunak announces UK general election for Thursday 4 July
  • The weird system of... predictable elections? Because that's what we're talking about. You can have predictable elections with a parliamentary system.

    And any government is only as good as the people in it, as we can see from Brexit. They threw away their future because of a non-binding vote, which was very close and done only once.

  • In racist rant, Trump claims his hush money judge "hates" him: "Look at where he comes from"
  • They're conservatives. They care about hierarchy. They're the "good Latinos", and dislike others who didn't just get into the country automatically when they stepped onto dry land.

    Honestly Mexicans are more conservative and it's pretty dumb of the Republicans to cater to random white racists. I bet as Mexicans in the US gain wealth the Republicans will just pretend to have loved them all along. "Those were other Republicans, not real ones like us."

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    Money KevonLooney Companies are having their best earnings season in nearly 2 years

    Earnings for the S&P 500 are growing at their fastest rate since 2022 and analysts see that trend continuing into next quarter, setting up a positive backdrop for stocks.

    Companies are having their best earnings season in nearly 2 years

    >Net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago, per FactSet. > >Largely, this has been driven by cost-cutting, not rising revenues. In 2023, investors cheered Big Tech's cost-cutting efforts that led to significant earnings growth. In 2024, companies outside the tech sector have tapped a similar playbook, setting up the rest of the index for earnings growth through the rest of the year.

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    Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting: Warren Buffett talks Apple, AI, Paramount, and more

    Warren Buffett took hours of questions from shareholders on Saturday for the first time since the passing of his right-hand man, Charlie Munger.

    Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting: Warren Buffett talks Apple, AI, Paramount, and more

    > Buffett, along with Berkshire vice chairs Greg Abel and Ajit Jain, took several hours of questions from shareholders.

    > As for the company's growing pile of cash and Treasury holdings, Buffett said it is likely the value of these holdings will exceed $200 billion during the current quarter, noting he's "quite satisfied" with the position.

    > Buffett has recommended most investors put most of their money in index funds that track the broader market. And that includes family.

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    Fed meeting recap: Powell pretty much rules out a hike as the central bank’s next move Fed meeting recap: Powell pretty much rules out a hike as the central bank's next move

    The Federal Reserve kept the fed funds target rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. Chair Jerome Powell said it was unlikely the central bank's next move would be a hike.

    Fed meeting recap: Powell pretty much rules out a hike as the central bank's next move

    >Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it was unlikely that the central bank’s next move will be a rate hike. The comment spurred a rally for the three major averages, with the Dow surging more than 500 points in its session high. Central bank policymakers kept rates steady at the conclusion of their May meeting, holding at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%.

    Money KevonLooney Fed to Signal Delay of Interest-Rate Cuts

    (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials are poised to keep interest rates steady for a sixth consecutive meeting and signal no plans for cuts in the near future after higher-than-expected inflation.Most Read from BloombergHSBC CEO Quinn Unexpectedly Steps Down After Almost 5 YearsBinance and CZ’s F...

    Fed to Signal Delay of Interest-Rate Cuts

    > The Federal Open Market Committee will hold the target range for its benchmark rate at 5.25% to 5.5% — a two-decade high first reached in July — at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting Wednesday. The rate decision, and possibly an announcement on the pace of its balance-sheet reduction program, will be released at 2 p.m. in Washington. Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference 30 minutes later. > > Policymakers are reluctant to begin lowering borrowing costs until they’re certain inflation is closing in on 2%, the rate they see as appropriate for a healthy economy. While they had penciled in three 2024 rate cuts as recently as March, Powell is likely to indicate those plans are on hold and will depend on an improvement in inflation.

    Money KevonLooney Treasury ETFs: What They Are and How They Work

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    This is not financial advice. It is an opinion, on social media. Don't rely on it to be correct or applicable to your own situation. Please inform yourself and base your financial decisions on your own opinions.

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    Review quarterly and annual revenue, net income, and cash flow for Apple Inc (AAPL:XNAS) stock through the last fiscal year.

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    Click "expand detail view" for the details.

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    Stock screener for investors and traders, financial visualizations.

    Try searching by "Forward P/E" for some decent deals.

    0 Trump Respects Women, Most Men Say

    Women do not see it that way, and that could matter this fall.

    Trump Respects Women, Most Men Say
    42 ‘Mike You Suck’: Columbia Students Let Loose on Speaker Johnson

    The House speaker threatened to call in the National Guard on Columbia protesters during a speech in the middle of campus.

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    The choice between buying a home and renting one is among the biggest financial decisions that many adults make.

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    This calculates the equivalent rent that a prospective home purchase represents. Basically, if you can rent a similar place for less than this amount, you should rent instead of buying and invest your down payment to pay for it.

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    Current mortgage and refinance interest rates Mortgage Rates: Compare Today's Rates | Bankrate

    Compare personalized mortgage and refinance rates today from our national marketplace of lenders to find the best current rate for your financial situation.

    Don't type in anything, just scroll down to the rates below.

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    Coast FIRE Calculator – Coasting to FI (Retirement Calculator) Coast FIRE Calculator - Coasting to FIRE | WalletBurst

    Visualize and calculate how much you need to "coast" to Financial Independence by using the power of compound interest.

    Coast FIRE Calculator - Coasting to FIRE | WalletBurst

    >Visualize and calculate how much you need to “coast” to Financial Independence > >Coast FIRE is when you have enough in your retirement accounts that without any additional contributions, your net worth will grow to support retirement at a traditional retirement age.

    0 Israel Iran attack: Damage seen at air base in Isfahan

    Satellite imagery analysis by BBC Verify reveals damage from Friday's Israeli strike on Iran

    Israel Iran attack: Damage seen at air base in Isfahan

    Looks like the missile hit a radar dish.

    >Satellite imagery released over the past 24 hours has revealed evidence of probable damage at an Iranian air base following an Israeli strike in the early hours of Friday morning.

    >Iran says the attack involved drones that were neutralised by air defences.

    >An Umbra Space image captured after Friday's strike shows damage and debris around one component - probably a radar - which has also shifted position slightly. > >This assessment was confirmed by an optical satellite image captured by Planet which, despite low resolution, shows a scorch mark at the same location.

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    Tax Calculator for the US (Federal and State) Federal Income Tax Calculator (2023-2024)

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    1 Freight railroads must keep 2-person crews, according to new federal rule first proposed under Obama

    Major freight railroads will have to maintain two-person crews in most circumstances under a new federal rule.

    Freight railroads must keep 2-person crews, according to new federal rule first proposed under Obama

    >“As trains — many carrying hazardous material — have grown longer, crews should not be getting smaller,” said Eddie Hall, the president of the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen union. He praised the FRA for taking the step President Joe Biden promised. Hall said keeping two people in the cab of a locomotive is crucial now that railroads rely on longer trains that routinely stretch for miles.

    12 From 'practical impossibility' to done deal: How Trump posted the $175 million bond in his civil fraud case

    Negotiations were underway to post a $557 million bond when an appeals court reduced the size of the judgment, according to one of the participants, billionaire Don Hankey.

    From 'practical impossibility' to done deal: How Trump posted the $175 million bond in his civil fraud case

    Looks like it actually was possible to bond the whole amount.

    >Don Hankey, the billionaire chairman of Knight Insurance Group, told NBC News he was negotiating to post a far heftier bond of $557 million with the Trump Organization when the state Appellate Division lowered the size of the required bond to $175 million.

    Donald Trump Is Not as Popular as Everyone Thinks Donald Trump is not as popular as everyone thinks

    On Super Tuesday, the former president lost the state of Vermont and more than 2 million votes to Nikki Haley.

    Donald Trump is not as popular as everyone thinks

    Despite resounding victories on Super Tuesday, there are indications that Donald Trump is still struggling to get strong, united Republican support, which he may need in the presidential election.


    Speaking to CNN about the Super Tuesday results, columnist and political commentator Molly Jong-Fast said: "There is a real 'Never Trump' contingent, and remember, Trump is a primary candidate. He has only ever tried to appeal to Republican primary voters, and he cannot marshal that group together the way he needs to.

    "Part of his trick in 2016 was, he got these low-frequency voters out, these people who almost never voted, which is why the polling was so off, and you're just not seeing that same type of enthusiasm."

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