ft.com
US farmers ‘prepare for the worst’ in new Trump trade war
Guy Chazan
7–9 minutes
Aaron Lehman’s soyabean farm in the heartland of Iowa feels like an oasis of calm in the turbulence and tumult of President Donald Trump’s second term. Yet all that could change in a matter of weeks.
Lehman is bracing himself for the impact of a potential trade war hatched in Washington that he says could lay low the US corn belt and irreparably harm America’s standing with its neighbours.
“Farmers understand that trading relationships go up on a stairway, where you work hard to build them up, but go down on an elevator — very, very fast,” Lehman said in the living room of his farmhouse about 20 miles north of Iowa’s capital Des Moines.
“The long-term effect is that countries around the world will no longer see us as a reliable partner.”
It has been a turbulent week in US trade policy. Trump announced last weekend that he would impose 25 per cent tariffs on Mexico and Canada, saying they were not doing enough to stem the flow of migrants and the illicit drug fentanyl into the US. Then after last-minute talks with the two countries’ leaders, he agreed to give them both a 30-day reprieve.
The same was not the case for China. The 10 per cent levy he imposed on all Chinese imports still stands. And many in Iowa believe it is only a matter of time before the tariffs on America’s northern and southern neighbours are reinstated.
The opening salvo of a new trade war has sent a chill through the Midwest. Canada, Mexico and China together account for half of all American agricultural exports. Just last year, the US sold more than $30bn in farm products to Mexico, $29bn to Canada and $26bn to China, according to American Farm Bureau statistics.
Farmers in an area of the country that has become a bedrock of support for Trump now worry that the president’s tariffs, though suspended at the last minute, have permanently damaged the image of the US in the eyes of its most important trading partners.
“We’ve gone from being a seller of choice to a seller of last resort,” said Mark Mueller, a farmer from near Waterloo in north-east Iowa.
Few US states better embody the agricultural wealth of the Midwest than Iowa. It is a land of vast corn fields stretching as far as the eye can see, the landscape broken by the occasional grain silo, hay bale or low-slung barn. Hogs outnumber people more than seven to one.
It is also Trump country. Although Iowa voted for Democratic presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, it backed Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024 in ever greater numbers.
More than a fifth of Iowa’s economy — or $53.1bn — is tied to agriculture, from crop and livestock production to food processing and manufacturing. It is the country’s largest producer of corn, hogs, eggs and ethanol and a top-three grower of soyabeans. That makes it particularly vulnerable to any downturn in agricultural exports.
The latest volley of tariff threats has evoked painful memories of the trade war unleashed by Trump in his first term. Among the most striking moves was Trump imposing duties on $300bn of Chinese goods. Beijing responded in 2018 by slapping 25 per cent tariffs on imports of US soyabeans, beef, pork, wheat, corn and sorghum.
The skirmish ended with the countries signing a trade deal in 2020 under which Beijing pledged to increase its purchases of US goods and services. But since then, it has been buying more grain from countries such as Argentina and Brazil, which overtook the US as China’s top supplier of corn in 2023.
In the last trade war, “a lot of our Asian buyers started developing relationships with soyabean producers in South America, and they’ve taken more and more of our market”, said Lehman, who is also president of the Iowa Farmers Union. “And we haven’t got it back.”
Not all of Iowa’s farmers oppose the way Trump has used the threat of tariffs to achieve a key policy objective — stemming illegal immigration.
“It was a strategy he needed to use to . . . get those countries to the negotiating table,” said Steve Kuiper, a fourth-generation Iowa farmer who grows corn and soyabeans in Marion County, south-east of Des Moines. After all, “a president has just four years to accomplish all he’s promised to do, so he’s got to get things going immediately to gain traction”.
The prospect of another round of trade tensions comes with American farmers already in a tight spot, hit by a fall in crop prices and higher costs. Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, was $181.9bn in 2022 but is projected to have been $140.7bn in 2024, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture — a 23 per cent slump.
“This [trade war] isn’t coming at a good time,” said Rick Juchems, a farmer from near Plainfield in north-east Iowa. “Commodity prices are low and the price of inputs like seed and fertiliser is going up.” Sources from the Iowa Corn Growers Association said many farmers had been producing at a $100 per acre loss.
Investments in new equipment are down, reflecting the wider downturn, said Juchems. “I’ve got friends who’ve lost their jobs selling agricultural machinery because of reduced demand. The lots are full of unsold tractors.”
Makers of farm equipment such as Deere, Kinze Manufacturing and Bridgestone/Firestone have shed hundreds of jobs in Iowa since last year.
Yet the prospects for farm finances could get even gloomier if Trump makes good on his threat of import levies. Fertiliser, for example, could become much more expensive, since more than 80 per cent of the US’s supply of potash — a key ingredient — comes from Canada.
But perhaps the most destructive effect of the tariff debate is the uncertainty it has triggered, just ahead of the crucial spring planting season.
“We’ll get by as long as we know what’s coming,” said Juchems. “But things are changing all the time. I’m sure the whole world is laughing at us.”
Lehman said farmers were trying to stay optimistic. “They tell me they’re hopeful cooler heads will prevail and this dispute will result in good trade agreements,” said Lehman. “But they’re also preparing for the worst.”
I don't feel bad at all for anyone that voted for Trump. I've lost all my sympathy this round. I hope he loses his farm. You fucked around, I hope you find out.
Must be the 50th such post I've seen in the past 7 days. Would people now vote differently if there was an election tomorrow or are they incapable of learning from their mistakes?
Honestly, maybe so the family doesn't see, while they can gather composure. A little bit of "men don't cry" and a little bit of "don't want the family to all have heart attacks before I know for sure"
There is a special kind of laugh for the useful idiots who blame non-voters for not voting rather than the party leadership of the party they wanted to win for refusing to do the bare minimum to turn those non-voters into voters.
It's the same kind of laugh reserved for people who, when their own team plays horribly and loses to a crap team, blame the referee.
I'm curious what qualifies a "democratic voter" as worthy of ridicule - can you give me some examples?
Much like an outsider looking in at your country (whatever it is), there's a ton of nuance to every culture. For example; I'm a decendant of a family that settled in New England in 1603 and I can't fucking stand the 2 party system. I've always wanted to abolish lobbyism, set term limits on congress critters, and outlaw insider trading for both politicians and their immediate families - but my average neighbor gets exhausted if I talk about anything but the simple stupid pleasures. I identify as an adult with compassion and a vision for my kids' future so that makes me a defacto dem because anything else is spoon-feeding the grand ole wizard party a victory.
Tons of us have been trapped here our whole lives and have tried to organize over the years. I know it seems like all finger-pointing and inaction from afar, but it's more nuanced than that.
Edit: Not to mention that civil unrest is the whole point at this stage. Project 2025 has the penultimate goal of suspending the writ of habeus corpus by June 30th while simultaneously deploying the US Military as a civilian police force.
To be honest, I have never understood why the "average joe" ever identified with Trump, whose whole point is that he is a "successful" billionaire businessman. Why they believe he's looking out for the little guy is beyond me.
I think people are reacting mainly emotionally (i.e. "I feel that this person can be trusted") rather than doing any meaningful level of political analysis and that the attraction of many for confident loudmouth politicians is in part a reaction to a couple of decades of being swindled by soft speaking slippery suits on both sides of the isle.
(Politically Aware people - which I imagine most of us here are - tend to expect from others similar levels of being well informed about Politics and thinking it to be important, when in reality most people do not think, care or are as well informed about politics anywhere as much as the Politically Aware)
These things come in cycles and we're back in the age when people are over-saturated with the "sophisticated misdirection and half-truth deceiver" type of swindler whilst not being innured to the "loud and brash liar" type of swindler, because the last couple of decades have been dominated in politics by the former kind of manipulator whilst the last time the latter type was dominant was almost a century ago.
Can you explain what you mean with "censorship in online spaces from the left"? As far as I know, most of our digital infrastructure is in the hand of MAGA right wing billionaires (X, Facebook, Instagram) and other people who are not really known as left (Reddit, TikTok, Google/YouTube). Most of our big social networks are not doing any left wing censorship. YouTube will demonitize you when you swear enough, because advertisers don't like that. Musk will censor you when you disagree with his politics. Trump will fire you if you mention certain words. But that is right wing censorship. So where are those spaces where the left is censoring everything that are pushing people to vote for the right?
one or a few, policies matter to them more than anything (abortion, tax cuts etc.)
likes the toxic traits (owning the libs, bigotry, pro America and fuck everyone else)
fell for the neo-con lie that conservative = good economy = better for everyone
fell for the "we're going to help the working man" Conservative lie
But most likely, imo, is that the average Joe is just way less politically engaged or aware, then you and your peers. They don't see all the bullshit, bigotry, obvious lies, the way R policies will fuck them over. They just know times are tough, prices are high and "right wing dude said he'd fix it".
Rural people generally on average mistrust city people. City person shows up one day and gives them riches beyond their wildest imaginations, two hundred dollars and a luxury import chocolate. Other city people say "don't trust these gifts, that guy is a known con artist". Rural people didn't grow up in an environment where scammers could just get away with it, cuz they'd get beat up by the other 80 people in the town that all knew them.
They don't have the defenses mechanism of skepticism built in from day 1. They often do not understand the difference between the law as written vs as intended, because strict interpretation of the rules is not required for a small society of people that all generally know teachers other to function.
I think it has to do with the conservative tendency to see a natural hierarchy to humanity.
(begin sarcasm)
Obviously, rando leopard victim currently under discussion is a member of the upper echelon of that human hierarchy. They are confused by the same things as Trump, they hate the same people as him, and they see the same TrRuTh about the world as him.
Surely, those are enough "good people" attributes that any day now they will get swept along on the Trump train and will be out of the trailer and sitting on a golden shitter before you know it. He might even let them push the button that takes food stamps away from a brown skinned single mother!
Or, and hey let's be fair, maybe some of them are smarter than that. They know that no Aryan Dividends are coming their way. But they have the integrity to tough it out while the other "good" people in charge spend all their energy hurting the subhuman garbage that deserves it most. That is obviously more important than education or human rights or whatever the limp-wristed liberal cucks are crying about today.
The money is just part of the deal when you're one of the master race-- err, no, I mean when you're one of the good people, the REAL Americans. It's not like you have to be BORN already having the money or just win the lottery some other way, lol.
Same... I have always known Trump to be an idiot... literally the stereotypical kid whose Dad is ashamed of because he decided to clown around and never accomplished anything given all the opportunities
hating a kid that might be different is more important than his farm.
Won't stop him from crying on camera about losing his livelihood due to his own actions, and probably low-key blame democrats for letting it happen.. as these fucktards always do.
I saw this guy's Tiktok on my FYP a couple of hours after he posted it, and in the comments he was DOUBLING DOWN on voting for Trump. He's now either deleted them, or they've gotten buried.
Either way I don't think these guys are getting it, even as they lose everything.
Sunk cost fallacy. Also, admitting to having been wrong is hard. It's one of the core mechanisms cults use to ensure loyalty. The more embarrassing, absurd and shameful the accepted "truths" become, the harder it is to exit the cult.
I literally don't even get schadenfreude from these faceless people being attacked by leopards. This country is being destroyed because people chose hate over listening to any source that wasn't Fox News. For years... So now we all have to suffer?
We tried to deprive you of this disillusionment. You could have lived the rest of your life in bitterness after Trump lost and got convicted of more crimes - and at least you still would have had your farm. But no, you had to go and hand him your fucking farm.
No he'd vote for Trump all over again tomorrow. He doesn't care how clearly bad this is for him, he's still better than black people, women, and Hispanics.
Yeah the one part of the article someone was more worried about border security than their own ability to farm.
Well I cant afford to eat anymore, the products all became to expensive and I'm going to have to sell my farm for Nickles on the dollar but it's alright, because those other people trying to escape inflation somewhere else, didn't get a chance at an opportunity either.
Clinton, Dubya, Obama, and Trump all had control of Congress going into office and lost it at the mid-terms. It's such a strong historical pattern I expect it to repeat in 2026.
The problem here is that both parties rule as conservatives, so you can change who (at least based on outward appearances) has power, but the wealthy class is still pulling all of the strings anyway.
He probably blames Biden because the contract was signed under his administration.
But an administration comes up with a good deal for you, one that improves your life, and in this case your farm, and you vote for the other guy. I guess I'm not a gymnast.
The problem is, he's clearly not learning anything. The whole video is "see, the government sucks!", which is basically the Republican message.
It's depressing. One side campaigns on "government sucks", and then breaks the government. The people who see that don't say "hey, those guys broke the government" they think "hey, they're right, the government sucks, I should keep voting for them."
George W was awful to the military and veterans get screwed by republicans all the time. Yet they love republicans and vote for them in droves. People don’t make sense.
When I was in, the bs spewed was that you should vote Republican to get pay increases because the Dems won't do it. Of course the GOP also likes to chip away at the VA and other veteran aftercare. We also had personnel equipment shortages like armor during OEF/OIF and Congress just shrugged.
Unfortunately there are a lot of impressionable kids and they pass the same dumbassery on when they are old timers. It is effective because you're basically indoctrinated to trust senior leaders.
Mr. Farmer, when trump talks about finding fraud in government, he's referring to USAID paying you for your farm products. You are the waste he is referring to.
This dude doesn't mention Trump or Republicans once during the entire video. I wouldn't be surprised at all if somehow he blames this on the previous administration. I've already had multiple conversations blaming any adverse effects from Trump's decisions on Biden and the Democrats in a similar fashion.
In the TikTok video, no, but in the BlueSky video, he mentions he voted for Trump. Although, your point most likely still stands, because he doesn't place blame.
Lots of reasons. Generally its not just corn but soybeans too. Essentially the USA has optimized its supply chain for producing massive amounts of corn and soybeans and bringing them to market. The subsidy is to ensure that USA capacity to produce enough food for its populace irrespective of geopolitics or world economies. We never want to be in a position where we aren't ramped up to feed our population entirely. If you overproduce, you can always get rid of the excess. If you underproduce, at least a portion of your population goes hungry. That cannot be allowed to happen. The ancillary benefits are things like USAID that use the overproduction as expressions of Soft Power around the world in the form of nutritional aid.
No, they meant what they said. USAID buying their products to feed starving people around the world. USAID was killed by Elon/Trump. They estimate six million people around the world could starve. USAID was 0.6% of the federal budget.
Dude doesn't quite connect the dots. The government — under Biden — had a deal to save his farm. The government — under Trump — is changing all the rules, reneging on the contract. If all he groks from this is "government bad," then game over. Except it's not a game.
I mean, it is sort of the lesson. The government sort of exists to be stable and a stabilizing force.
We've concentrated power in the executive branch for years, throughout several administrations. If one election can cause this much chaos in a month (really a few weeks). Than the government isn't performing it's primary function.
At this point I'm not sure how much it matters that one party is mostly responsible. The state is looming on failure. These radical position shifts every few years are a bad thing.
Commodity crops prices often trend the inverse of the economy. The reason is simple; It is highly dependent on the export market.
When overall economy is strong, the dollar is strong versus other currencies. This makes importing easier and exporting harder. So prices for commodities in the U.S. fall.
When the overall economy is weak the dollar falls in value. This makes importing harder but exporting much easier. Prices for commodities rise rapidly and farmers make more gross money.
Even through they are making more gross income their cost skyrocket so their net returns are in general pretty average.
Farmers tend to make the most money when the economy is in recovery mode and commodity prices are still higher but input costs fall.
So here is the vicious cycle we have fallen into. Republicans get into power and crash the economy. When it crashes, farmers get high prices but low returns. Democrats come in, repair the economy but by the time elections come around, farmers have not made any money for a year or two. Rinse and repeat.
Now the orange moron adds a bit of a twist to it. Trade war: This can fuck the farmer up really bad as buyers are willing to pay a modest premium to minimize the impact of an unreliable trading partner. It reduces both the volume moved and prices offered from other countries for years.
I dislike how the slow roll of economy coincides with voting cycles. These iowan farmers would get gutted now, but the whole impact of that would grow well over 4 years of presidency, and those dealing with it by them would not get credit for it like it always happens, and many would vote degenerate right again as they usually do.
In four years, these same people will vote against their own interest again because "Trump said he would save my farm after this next election". While conveniently overlooking the fact that both parties will be offering to save their farm by that time, and only one of those will have actual solutions and won't have caused the problem in the first place.
but remember, we're not allowed to support the people with solutions to our problems because people on the other side of the world are committing genocide with american weapons.
I sadly suspect that this is the type of voter who will continue to blame anyone and everyone else for the problems they triggered themselves.
Cognitive dissonance has well and truly set in.
I think fundamentally this is the underlying issue with the current situation in the USA. I'm not sure what fixing it looks like.
This isn't something that started in November last year, it's been brewing for decades, perhaps even longer, it's that right now it's burst out like an infected boil and become visible for the whole planet to see. It's why I used triggered, not caused. I think it's much, much deeper than the latest election.
Don't get me wrong, there's plenty of people left who don't think like this, but they are losing ground fast as their democracy is demolished bit by bit by the billionaires.
Organising, protesting and actively fighting this appears to be where it's now at.
I wouldn't bet anything important on it. The lack of empathy endemic to the right means that every voter will have to experience their own life-changing betrayal directly affecting them.
For most of these people, there is no way to convince themselves to dig themselves out, we just have to wait until they keep digging and tunnel to the other side. A better wager would be that's going to take more time than Trump & Musk will need to gut the government and dismantle democracy.
Even then it's not for certain. If their politics is grounded in hatred rather than self-interest they have no reason to stop as long as the outgroups can be punished as well.
You can move self-interest to mutualism more easily than you can move hate to compassion.
I stopped buying into that "they go low, we go high" bullshit. The only people impressed by that nonsense are the other milquetoast liberals who think we can stop these deranged assholes with platitudes and sneering op-eds.
As a warning to my own side: Mark Cuban is eyeing Bluesky. Do not trust him even if he's saying the right things about Trump and a few other things about American politics.
What can you do? Vote for people that want to help everyone while they vote, and win, on people that want to help only themselves.
Unfortunately, you gotta call it like it is. They are bad business owners making bad decisions. I can talk to them, try to convince them, but not control them.
Why are half the posts here unverifiable screenshots and social media clips, often out of context, as opposed to something more substantial and provable? I don’t doubt this is happening but this hardly counts as a legitimate source showing this is some larger opinion/shift occurring.
you’re right the video certainly is something, I’m not saying it’s worthless to be clear. But I don’t like feeling like I’m browsing conservative corners that just plaster screenshots and claim whatever they want. It’s hard not to compare this community to that sometimes (even if the content is generally way more accurate/truthful).
Its leopardsatemyface, where do you expect the individuals having their faces eaten be found aside from social media? Most of those taking place on social media many on Lemmy would be unwilling to go to, and may even be blocked by the instance (x for example, depending on the instance of course).
This community is not about large scale shifts so much as individuals having their faces eaten by the leopards eating faces party.
So I'm not sure what you're expecting to see instead.
The occasional report, study, article, interview, etc of substance? Is it some strange requirement that we’re not allowed to show something a bit…more? Are the rules of this community that it has to be out of context screenshots and social media clips?
Why are you asking me something you can easily figure out yourself? You’re just being contrarian. Besides, how can you possibly claim to be showing “large scale shifts” with posts like this? Surely you’re joking.
Whoops they've mostly been outsourced. I guess you're homeless! Wait, that's illegal now . Go to jail. Heyy good news while in prison you get to work on your old farm again!
I would laugh if I didnt know how bad this is going to be now. Coorporations will completely own and control the food system and we will be eating slop that may or may not kill us and liking it.
This is almost like the Cyberpunk 2077 lore is comming true play by play
It's probably too early to tell just how many people will be impacted and if those impacted will connect the dots to Trump and his cabinet's actions. But I'll ask as a precaution - is there a lethal dose for schadenfreude? My gut tells me we may experience quite a bit of it and I don't want to overdose.
EDIT:
In many ways, this community is appropriate for all the people in it.
We talk down to anyone who doesn’t vote like us, we laugh at them, and hope for their suffering. No wonder all those people hate us and want to vote against the left out of spite. Seems like we did it to ourselves as much as they did it to us.
Also, it’s funny for all the people who make fun of this guy for not doing research, but 90% didn’t actually watch any of his video, especially not the one I shared.
Unfortunately the time for civility and reaching across the aisle has ended long ago. What pushing him away is the fact that he wanted to harm other people and suddenly got harmed himself and now is crying about it and wants someone to cuddle him otherwise he will be continue to vote to harm people.
Fuck him, he should suffer, he should feel ostracised, pushed away, hurt. That's what he wanted, that's what he actively worked for.
He could try to redeem himself and all that, but until he does, he's the monster and should be percieved as such.
It’s too fucking late. Who gives a shit how he’s going to vote next cycle? There will not be a legitimate vote next cycle. Pushing people like him away? It’s over. There are no more chances. It’s all a show from here on out. That is not an exaggeration.
Oh wow, the orange Hitler voter is having a crisis so we should have a reserved discussion about it to help him find his way...
Absolutely not. If you can't see the writing on the wall, it is not worth the calories to explain it. As my late grandmother used to say "If you can't listen, you'll have to feel". Hopefully he learns a lesson.
This song always plays in my head when I read stuff like this. I just replace the lyrics between the "dum dum dum dum dum's" to fit the new dumb, conservative topic I'm reading about.
I think we should have empathy for people that were fooled into voting for Trump with the promise of prosperity. Working people should be voting for a party that actually supports the middle class, and Republicans had better (albeit untruthful) messaging there.
Whatever their reasons, if the voters are seeing the consequences of their actions and reflecting I'm going to forgive them. It sucks that it came to this, but if people are learning from their mistakes, we might be able to push back in a couple of years. I have less empathy for those that haven't changed their minds. I have zero empathy for people that voted for Trump out of hate.
Well, apparently they aren't going to wake up until they lose their farms--and apparently maybe not even that is enough. Some other commenter said he was doubling down on Trump in social media. They wanted disruption, and this is what it looks like.
My parents have been borrowing my car for almost a year now so they can drive for DoorDash, because if they don't, this country will sit by and let bloodsucking capitalists take their home and their lives. This didn't happen to them under Trump. It happened under Biden, and Democrats shouldn't be pointing and laughing. They should be having calm, measured conversations with these people and trying to garner their support instead.
But for all their degrees and education, they lack empathy and don't understand people at all.
Nobody's pointing and laughing. Leopards Eating People's Faces is about Justice-based Schadenfreude. It is the pleasure associated with seeing a person who wished ill on other people receive that ill themselves. The overriding emotion isn't joy, it's a mix of exasperation and relief. Exasperation because someone was stupid or cruel enough to wish those things for other people, and relief that there's finally some justice because they're suffering from the exact thing they wished on those other people.
The impoverishment is very much a both-sides issue. That's how Trump got elected. You and the other Democratic voters are only acting like you care because, at the moment, it's politically convenient. You have no real values.
When all we have is factory farmed, grabbing routinely pesticided* and routinely antibioticd food, will they? Like I'm really okay with vegan but plant* butter is still just transfat. Chemicals build up in our bodies, especially liver.