Humiliating New Polls Spell Doom for J.D. Vance ... and Trump

Polls don't mean shit. Vote. Write in your fucking grandma for all I care but vote, and bring your friends. Make a party of it. Or sign up for mail in ballot if you still can, and tell your friends, family, strangers in the grocery line, coworkers, scream into the black void. VOTE.

Uh don't commit voter fraud wtf

Edit oh you probably mean grandma for president. I'm in
- Yes I was referencing a standard write in ballot with <Grandma's Name> being the independent candidate
Illinois just mails me a ballot before every election. Super convenient, it’s a shame more states don’t do it.
- Same in Oregon
They mean something but there’s a thing called polling error, which news outlets studiously ignore.

The race is essentially tied currently. The danger of the new reich is very real.
I still remember all the polls saying Hillary was gonna win and how confident the Dems got.
- Completely unrelated question but are you still selling those posters?
I’ve asked this before, what does Lemmy have against polling? You guys know that people aren’t using polls as a substitute for voting, right?
- Arguably the first time Trump got elected the polls saying he couldn't win played a large part in that. People felt safe not voting in protest of Hillary because "there's no way Trump can win anyway."
- I cannot speak for the whole of Lemmy, but anything but exit polls tend to have multiple issues. The way that they're used in popular media tends to fuel horse race politics.
  
  Here's the Pew Research Center, likely the largest polling organization in the US outside of the US Census. https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/
  
  Here's how they can fuel partisanship when that bias is not taken into account by the media https://phys.org/news/2020-10-political-scientist-negative-partisanship-voters.html
  
  Here's what I mean when I say horse race politics. https://journalistsresource.org/politics-and-government/horse-race-reporting-election/
- Ptsd. We have been burned before.
- Polls are bullshit and cause stupid. Also they are getting increasingly biased as time goes on, seriously some still only use land lines.

But confusingly, Trump has continued to send Vance out to campaign events all week, while the Republican presidential nominee has remained largely out of the public eye. Given Vance’s low appeal, it’s unclear how this strategy helps the campaign.

Trump is going to blame Vance for the failure of his campaign, calling it now. He'll have the usual shit about dems as well, but he's going to scapegoat vance and throw him under the bus just like he's done with literally everyone else before him.

I can't wait for Trump to refer to the couch fucking.
- He's a low energy guy. Low energy. I heard some rumors about couches and JD. Nasty rumors. Rumors are sometimes true.
Can’t wait for him to run again in 4 years
- Hopefully he does and plagues the GOP for the next 3 cycles.
After trying to have his last Veep hung, I'm not really sure why anybody would think it would go any different for them. I guess he found another thoroughbred narcissist to join him this time. "It couldn't possibly happen to me."
- The thing that almost got Pence killed was having a tiny shred of respect for his responsibilities. That's not a problem for someone who's completely self-serving or all in for Trump.
I don't quite understand this reasoning, though, since he would never acknowledge losing anyway and his freedom may rely on winning this election.
- That didn't happen. And if it did, it wasn't that bad. And if it was, that's not a big deal. And if it is, that's not my fault. <----- And if it was, I didn't mean it. And if I did, you deserved it.
  
  That's why. He'll jump to number six after he loses, saying the GOP didn't support him enough and they deserved to lose.
- his freedom may rely on winning this election
  
  If he were ever in danger of actual imprisonment, he could always move to Russia or Saudi Arabia.
- Possibly say Vance was working for the democrats to sabotage him
He's already got his sharpie out to cross out pence and write in vance after "hang"
I totally agree. His next primary should be hilarious lol
Is this going to happen from prison? Lmao
- With the Supreme Court and Judge Cannon in his pocket, he will never see the inside of a prison cell.

trump knows that winning by votes is off the table. he doesn't care. votes and vice presidents don't matter when your plan is to take over by force

He's going to find that a tall order when he's not an elected official this time.
- his muppets in congress, state legislatures, and trailer parks will be doing everything for him. like before, the only thing trump will do is shout "election fraud" every 5 seconds

Looks like people are ok with an old racist rapist with dementia, but fucking a couch is where the line is drawn.

It's not just that. Democrats finally found a way to message "these people do not deserve the benefit of rational debate; they deserve ridicule".
- I hope this is a lesson that sticks, at least for a generation.
I'm just happy people are finally drawing a line.
I’m with Fox News on this one. I demand to see the video!
...that's where I draw the line!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1wkqZIJOAQ

Dan Quayle must be happy to pass that "worst VP ever" torch on to someone else.

i miss the days when the fuckup someone is remembered for was misspelling potato
- Those were simpler times. Now it's the Time of Simps.
- Putting an e on the end of potato basically ended his political career and now Trump supporters shout "covfefe" because they think it's somehow smart. I think about that a lot.
  
  Or the fact that people largely see the photo that Dukakis took in a tank as the moment HW Bush won the 88 election - compared to Trump's photo op in a Fire Truck...
- The 90s: "How could we ever put someone in charge who's so stupid he can't even spell potato?"
  
  George W. Bush: "Watch this drive"
  
  Donald J. Trump: "unintelligible gibberish"
- I would argue they were just better at hiding the same type of shit these modern politicians are thinking and saying. Now it's just acceptable. Then you had Howard Dean dooming himself for a cowboy scream.
Worst is subjective. I’d argue that Cheney’s support of blood for oil and Halliburton rebuild scheme was far worse than anything Quayle did.
- Yeah, same thought. Cheney was the worst because he was smart, competent, and evil. That beats incompetent.
Simpler times. He gave us these nuggets of wisdom:

"You take the UNCF model that what a waste it is to lose one's mind or not to have a mind is being very wasteful. How true that is"

"The Holocaust was an obscene period in our nation's history. ... No, not our nation's, but in World War II. I mean, we all lived in this century. I didn't live in this century, but in this century's history"

"I have made good judgments in the past. I have made good judgments in the future"

"I believe we are on an irreversible trend toward more freedom and democracy, but that could change"

"potatoe" (when trying to "correct" a 12-yr old's spelling of "potato")
At least Dan Quayle convinced Pence not to play ball with Trump's schemes.
- Everyone loves a redemption arc. But how sad is it that the 'potatoe' guy was the voice of reason who helped save American democracy in it's darkest hour (so far!). We really are living through Idiocracy!
it only counts if he's elected

Let's be real, JD Vance was picked by the party to be the adult in the room who can actually get Project 2025 passed under Trump since Trump doesn't care about Project 2025 and just wants what's best for himself at that moment and to be a petty little bitch

Also worth noting that Vance has no personality. When asked in Eau Claire, WI "why should a voter want to have a beer with you" he responded "uh I uh haha um I actually like beer haha" (he also tried to sidestep a question about Tim Walz by saying "we aren't talking about Minneapolis policy, were talking about Wisconsin" while literally standing 1 hour's drive from Minneapolis

And when asked "what makes you smile" instead of any sane answer he answered "insane questions from biased reporters like you!" Then followed it with waffling about how he loves his job so much while forcing the fakest smile you've ever seen

Fuck that's such an easy layup of a question too. You just respond, "because I'm buying". No positions to attack, potentially makes you look human, and maybe costs you a beer.
IMHO they want Vance for one reason: Trump thinks he can control him, but Vance's actual master, Theil, will have Vance 25th amendment the orange asshat on day one - giving Theil the whitehouse.
- The Vice President can't do that without "a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide" on their side. That can't happen without either the aid of people that Trump would have to select (and he's notorious for picking toadies) or Congress passing a bill to create a body to evict him.
- That would be a good House of Cards episode, not realistic in the slightest.
Also the Ohio thing makes sense when you look at the Senate map. There are exactly two remotely competitive races, Montana and Ohio. Ohio is leaning blue and Montana is leaning red. Picking JD boosts Ohio and Trump is campaigning in Montana right now. Those choices were both made when Biden was still in so seemingly the idea was to secure the Senate and grab an extra seat or two so it's not razor tight and vulnerable to RINOs.
- Yeah, it’s a real shame. Sherrod brown is great
Do you have a link for that Eau Claire Interview?
- Here is an article with a snippet from the interview referenced. The whole interview is readily available on YouTube if you do a quick search. Hope it helps. https://www.wizmnews.com/2024/08/08/vance-jokes-hes-checking-out-his-future-vp-plane-while-overlapping-with-harris-at-eau-claire-airport/ Cheers!

Good. Don't care. Behave like the polls show Harris two points behind. Get everyone you know to commit to voting. Offer to drive them to vote. Get them to bring their friends.

I'm genuinely thrilled to see Harris getting people energized and moving the needle, but complacency is our enemy.

Offer to drive them to vote

I always forget how good we have it in Oregon. I'll go through the pamphlet and read up on all the ballot initiatives while filling out my ballot in the comfort of my home at my own pace. Then I'll drop it in the mail or at a drop box somewhere the next day

Donald is sending this hated guy around to campaign solely because Donald is a low-energy geriatric suffering from dementia. He is far too old to be president.

Wish people actually believed this, rather than just tossing it out as a barb. Wouldn't mind seeing a statutory requirement for Presidents to be under the age of 75. But it would never see the light of day in our gerontocracy.
- 75? How bout just 65?
- "People" meaning voters? Because I'm pretty sure the people tossing the barb believe it. I certainly do. It's not the worst thing about Trump by far, but it's a problem nonetheless.

I got so much concern trolling for saying Biden was bad and should step down. People accused me of wanting fascism. They insisted I was naive and we should be standing behind Biden.

I just want to say to those people: you were wrong. Dumping Biden has wildly hurt Trump's chances, and you were the ones arguing against it.

I was definitely one of those people that thought we should stick with Biden because his name was known, and that we were too close to the election to get a new candidate enough exposure to be competitive. It wasn't that I thought Biden was the best choice for president, just that I thought the timing was too tight.

I'm so happy to be wrong about this. The enthusiasm for Harris is fantastic, and she's doing great with the spotlight on her. The candidate switch has stolen the media attention from Trump and it's pretty clear he doesn't know how to handle it. Younger people are more interested in voting, minorities are more interested in voting, women are more interested in voting - it's fucking great.

I was wrong. And I couldn't be happier about it.
- I'm with you. I wasn't sure we should stick with Biden, but I wasn't sure we shouldn't, either. Being an incumbent does count for something, and I'd never heard people being that excited about Harris. To be it was whatever gave us the best chance of keeping Trump from winning.
  
  But I couldn't be happier with how it's turning out, and I very much hope we can keep the momentum going.
- I also thought it was too late to replace Biden and they should have done it at least six months earlier. But now I think the timing is pretty much perfect.
  
  Republicans focused all their efforts on bashing Biden instead of getting people excited for their own policies. Now that whole campaign has just imploded on itself and there's not enough time to come up with and enact something new. Plus, Harris and Walz have all the attention now, they dominate the news.
People disagreeing with you is not trolling
- I mean, sometimes it is (like when the thing they disagree with is "2+2=4", or "global warming exists," or some other objective statement of fact that isn't really up for debate). But this is not one of those cases.
I am happy to admit I was wrong, I really thought Biden was the best shot this late in the race. I grossly underestimated how strong and positive the response would be for Harris, given her performance during her previous presidential run. It feels fantastic to be wrong.

With that said, I think it's a bad faith argument to lump all concern together as concern trolling. If enthusiasm had been weak, the shoe could have just as easily been on the other foot, with countless armchair politicians lamenting those 'fascist agitators' who convinced Biden to drop out, thereby handing Donnie Dipshit the presidency.

Hindsight is 20/20, I'm just glad we're still in this.
- With that said, I think it’s a bad faith argument to lump all concern together as concern trolling. If enthusiasm had been weak, the shoe could have just as easily been on the other foot, with countless armchair politicians lamenting those ‘fascist agitators’ who convinced Biden to drop out, thereby handing Donnie Dipshit the presidency.
  
  Hindsight is 20/20, I’m just glad we’re still in this.
  
  I don't think you are listening, people were saying this over and over again BEFORE Biden stepped down, we didn't need hindsight, YOU did because you refused to listen.
  
  I love that y'all admit you were wrong superficially but then insult people who have been making strong arguments for quite a long time that Biden should step down and not run again with statements like "well, who could have known!" with a happy shrug.
  
  We did and people like you almost cost us the election. Do you understand how dangerous a role people like you played in shutting down criticism of Biden and attacking concerned Democrats like they were all Russia trollbots or something?
  
  You speak of the danger of divisiveness, of having democrats split up and fractured... hopefully you do realize that is PRECISELY what democrats shouting down concerns about Biden were doing? Can you at least see that in 20/20 hindsight?
  
  What have you learned that will lead you into NOT making the same potentially catastrophic miscalculation next time around?
  
  ...because you realize y'all look like clowns in the wake of Harris raising 200 million and 170,000 volunteers in a week right?
  
  Honestly, you need to stop commenting on politics until you dismantle your world view and understanding of how US politics works please, you don't understand very basic shit here. I don't know what more proof you need than the last month or so of politics.
  
  Don't give me this "Wow, happy surprise! Who woulda thought things could go so well!" nonsense, it is insulting and minimizing to those of us who have actually been paying attention and understood the political forces at play.
I was on that side a bit and the thinking was if we aren't united behind Biden, tRUmp will divide and conquer the rest. I think we were just trying to show solidarity. we all knew he was weekend at Bernie-ING but didn't think/know how positive it would be on this side of that decision. so for that, sorry.
Same. I got downvoted to oblivion on a bunch of threads weeks ago for pointing this out.
I am so happy to be proven wrong. A pit of fear opened in my stomach when I read he dropped out.

48 hours later I was coconut pilled and ready to volunteer for Harris.
I’ve been saying Biden shouldn’t run again since 2020 but I think it’s a bit premature to say we were right just yet. Things are going well so far but there’s still time for things to go wrong.
Absolutely. These libs were out in force calling us Russian bots.

They’re the same libs who are now shushing us for calling out Kamala on being a genocide supporter.

“If you want Donald Trump to win then keep saying that. Otherwise I’m speaking!” 👏🏻 👏🏻 👏🏻 yaaaasss queen!!!!

It’s sickening.

The fact is that if Kamala were actually stand up to her fascist Israeli masters instead of being a meek little pawn she would only gain more respect and more people energised to vote for her.

Chasing the Donald Trump genocide-voting crowd isn’t doing her any favors. Fuck those people. Actually stand for something and show you have a shred of humanity and real humans will be engaged.
I hate these attention seeking posts.

Won't anyone comfort j.d. vance through this difficult time? Anyone? Any...thing?

Ya fuck one couch, and everyone calls you a couch fucker.

Yes couch fucker
The thing about this meme is that it’s stuck so it works. Doesn’t matter if it’s true or not. You can just call him a couch fucker and it renders anything he says irrelevant.

If you meet anyone who wants to talk about voting for the guy you just need to call them a couch fucker too and you’re done.

Wow, really looks like little-t fucked the couch on this one.

Don't believe polls, they don't mean anything. Go out and vote. It's not over till it's over. Otherwise we risk things going tits up again.

Yes, the good guys need to win overwhelmingly to overcome the bad guys cheating.

It's not fair, but that's the system we have right now.
I think knowing that I will be undermining JD Vance (and Trump, of course) will be a gigantic motivator for me.
- This will be even better than the first time I voted against him

Doom is overstating things, especially with the fucking electoral college in the US and election shenanigans afoot in Georgia. Don't lose focus!

Well, he's an election denying Maga billionaires' toady, that lacks any charisma, trashes where he came from and then hitches himself to someone he previously denounced in an effort to gain political power. Oh and he wants to completely ban abortion. He's an unlikable political opportunist. It's no wonder that the publics opinion of him will continue to drop.

Polls in August never "spell doom" for anyone, but especially when the other candidate has only been in the race for 3 weeks. There is no certainty that the poll numbers will maintain as people learn more about the candidates.

Dementia DonOLD the weird racist rapist with 34 felonies is looking like he's out of gas and his running mate is a fucking clown. They're in deep shit. Everyone has a vote, and everyone needs to vote! Volunteer to help those that wouldn't be able to vote without assistance.
- All of those except maybe "out of gas" were true when he was up by 5 points everywhere.
But there's something very good about these articles: MAGAts like strength or what they think strength is and articles talking about humiliation are not helpful for Trump.

Good! Love to see it.

"Doom" is actually spelled C... O... U... C... H...

Go figure, people don't want zealots chiming in about why they are or why they are not having children?

Sofa don't care. Sofa loves you unconditionally JD.

Real question. If the vice presidential duty is to ceremoniously sign off on delegate votes, how will that work if Kamala is the VP, but also on the ticket? I could see these MAGA nuts using that to drum up support for a stolen election, they tried it when Pence was VP, and he wasn't an electee.