'Dead heat': Trump pulls even with Harris in NBC News poll
'Dead heat': Trump pulls even with Harris in NBC News poll
A close election has never looked more tightly divided, with Harris’ popularity declining from its previous high and abortion atop voters’ issue list.
I don't like Harris very much. But the fact that half the country is willing to choose a deranged con artist over her is just beyond any rational thought.
Half the voting population, more specifically
Or I guess in this case, half of those polled
To be fair, it's not like everyone that doesn't vote hates him. Some do I'm sure, but there's also going to be people that think favorably of him but don't bother voting, just as there are and have been for his opponents
That's what happen when you fuck your education system for money
Everything is fear based and not rationale.
Trump voters fear immigrants; Fear their guns, religion and identity are somehow being taken away. They fear and refuse to understand the world is constantly changing and that we need to adapt along with it.
Harris voters (rightly) fear trump and all the bigotry, racism, and misogyny he has enabled and emboldened.
Most of the American people don’t have something to vote for, only something to vote against. The ruling class is further detached for the working class by stoking culture wars gaslighting on the socioeconomic disparage
They want Trump in because he represents an amoral outsider. Someone who is disenfranchised by the moralisms of the establishment left.
This is how they see themselves.
They like him because he's a shithead who doesn't care to preserve this system. They want change even if it's bad.
In this way pointing out that he's a shithead and a risk to democracy - helps him.
Unfortunately it's the Harris campaigns only option, as the alternative is to say: He's actually a highly connected establishment figure who will pull the same establishment shit we do. This would have obviously blow back for an establishment figure.
They want Trump BECAUSE he's a train wreck.
I actually believe it will end up being Harris by a large margin. I believe a lot of Republicans who don't want Harris to win, still won't actually go out and bring themselves to vote for Trump. They'll just stay home.
It boggles the mind that this sack of shit is even in the running.
He has the charisma of a wet sponge (and the appearance of someone you'd think twice before buying a used car from), he can hardly string together a sentence (let alone hold a speech), hi lies, he commits fraud, he's a convicted felon..
That's hardly brushing the surface, yet people go "fuck yeah, this guy should run the country".
Jeebuz fuckin christ.. what's happening?
Unless you got home schooled by Heinrich Himmler, there's no excuse. You can't possibly offer your political support to such a scumbag.
I was at a pumpkin patch 25 minutes out of Chicago on Saturday and there was a man proudly wearing a shirt with Trump on it and the shirt said, “I’m voting for the convicted felon”. His voter base does not fucking care, at all.
I don't watch a lot of TV, so I don't see ads much, but just saw an ad from the turnip who was railing against they/them pronouns....the level of hate from the turnips is insane. It's like if Hitler was running and railing against jews. How is this shit allowed on tv...next he's gonna be saying minorities should be hung.
30 or 40 years ago he would've been laughed out of politics the moment he came down his gold escalator.
Idiocracy. We live in Idiocracy... 500 years faster than expected.
President Camacho legitimately wanted to find solutions to the problems his constituents faced, AND he had the wisdom and self-awareness to know he needed someone smarter than himself in order to achieve that. He's willing to try things and change his mind when he is presented with new information. Furthermore, when he is successful, he shares the credit equitably with the other people involved.
We're doing much worse than Idiocracy.
It’s not fair. I at least wanna go get a burger at Buttfuckers.
When a society puts money above all else Donald Trump is what happens. He was a celebrity failed businessman long before he became president, he knows what gets Americans excited.
I was talking with my mom the other day and apparently their neighbors, who up until now had never shown any political affiliation at all, put up a Trump flag. They’ve been neighbors for like 20 years haha, my mom was shocked.
He tells people it's ok to be angry. That's all they want to hear.
Guess there was not enough money in the public school system after all.
That’s hardly brushing the surface, yet people go “fuck yeah, this guy should run the country”.
Only the stupid people say that. The smart people say that the woman running against him is just as bad as him despite being measurably better in literally every conceivable metric.
Maybe the neoliberals should stop trying to throw the race to suck up to corporate donors.
Again.
And you fuckers called me crazy for saying there was a concerted propaganda effort to conflate "neoliberal" with "liberal"
Neoliberals are Republicans.
Liberals are Democrats.
The media wants a race. That’s the only way they get viewers.
Or... it really is THAT close of a race. When we shrug it off as "the media just wants a race" we get complacent.
www.vote.gov make sure you're registered and double check even if you think you already are. Early voting is happening in some states. Get active
Always vote like your vote will make a difference. It might, especially local races. If we accidentally turn the election into a sweep by everyone voting, oh well.
Who’s shrugging off anything? Did I say that? Nope. I’m just saying that we can have a close race and it still be true that Harris holds a 3-point lead nationally and small leads in the swing states. My point is that the media ALWAYS try making it even closer than what it is. Do you disagree with that?
It can be both things.
There are no definitive data points that should lead anyone to believe that either candidate has a significant advantage.
I'm not sure anyone who is well versed in election projections or polling would say anything other than it's a toss up. As a heavy consumer of said data and reporting, I haven't seen anything to the contrary.
You're not wrong about media incentives, but they're also not wrong that this is a very close race.
Thank you! That was point. It’s close. Harris holds a steady, yet small lead. The media will always make it seem closer than what it is though for ratings.
Landslide stomps get views too. They made a game of Reagan's run in literally 1984 trying to predict if he could win all 50 states or not. (He fell one short).
538 has Trump's support at his 2016 final levels. This is relevant to note because, in both prior elections, the polls were extremely good at predicting the baseline margins from diehards and registered, and the error came from badly guessing the undecideds wrong.
Unless this is the first election in a long long time to actually get the baseline wrong or literally 100% of the undecideds go to Harris, Trump's got above 2016 in raw percentage totals basically locked in(in 2016 a ton of people went third party so neither he or Hillary actually crossed 50 percent, Hillary was 48.2 and Trump 46.1). In 2020 it was 46.8 for Trump and 51.3% for Biden. If things continue to trend that way Trump will be close to his 2020 total percentage locked in and thus will almost certainly be higher in the final count. The people genuinely leaving Trump will mostly be former undecideds, not the people locked in, so this number isn't being shifted as much. That does suggest that, even with his general ceiling region not shifting a ton, he's probably set to break 47% in the final number if not more (Trump was polling sub-45 in both 2016 and 2020 so 48 is also plausible).
This matters mostly because not every undecided is going to break for Harris or Trump, there will be people sticking third party who most polls lump in with them or at least contribute to the 'Not Harris or Trump' number, and this is one of the few areas where the general trend is not in Harris's favor. Just broadly speaking this is the most left-wing Third Party batch we've had since 2000.
As much as people love to say voting third party helps Republicans, that hasn't been the case in a while, the Libertarians have been the strongest for a long while and they usually siphon off more Republicans, especially Anti-Trump Ron Paul types. They probably cost Trump Georgia in 2020. But the Libertarian party has been in a state of collapse since 2022, there was an attempted takeover by a hard right clique, which lead to a nasty party schism that left the party not cooperating, then a ton of Hardliners defected to Trump when the Moderates got control of the primaries, and then to make matters worse RFK joined in around that time taking most of the right wing moderates and leaving the Left Libertarians to put Chase Oliver on the ticket. So a ton of Libertarian voters either left with the hardliners for Trump a year ago or left for RFK who in turn endorsed Trump likely redirecting some more of them to him, and what's left is the most Left-Wing Libertarian the party has run since the 1970s.
Then there's the fact the Constitution Party has been steadily weakening for years, they lost their status as the Number 3 Third Party in 2020 to the PSL, and this year they had a schism between the Mormon and Protestant factions. They also mostly take Republican Votes. Or the fact the usual coalition of small right wing parties all working together to back one candidate(Rocky De Le Fuente last time) are all gone. Why? They all hitched to RFK Jr, and he dropped out too late for any of them to pick new guys. (That I honestly suspect was the real goal of his candiacy. Wipe out the small right wing third parties and weaken the Libertarians).
On the other foot, the Greens are proportionally stronger as Jill Stein has better name recognition than Howie, the Party for Socialism and Liberation is surging with youth support and is set to break their all time record again, and Cornel West...exists.
It could be far worse, lawsuits kept most of them off of most Swing States, Nevada kept the Green Party off and has the Constitution Party, and Pennsylvania and Arizona only have the Greens and Libertarians. Wisconsin and Michigan also still have RFK Jr on them despite Cornel West and Claudia being there. But it's still way more left leaning than normal just from the Libertarian crisis and lack of small right parties even without those new guys.
Let's say around 1.5% of the undecideds go Third Party. Lower than 2020, way way lower than 2016, about on parr with previous years. It's going to be mostly people who would otherwise vote democrat. The Popular Vote to Electoral College margin is supposed to be quite a bit less this year, but sub-Hillary margins nationally are probably a loss. So Harris wants a 2 point lead and there's around 98.5% available. It's gonna be tight.
TL:DR The lower number of undecideds also means that less of them need to break for Trump to give a win, even with the gap between Popular Vote and Electoral College predicted to shrink significantly. Polls have been very accurate at predicting the baseline support, it's the undecideds they suck at guessing.
Trump's baseline just hit 46.1%, 2016 final levels(not 2016 baseline that was barely 40%, big difference) and at the rate it's slowly creeping up could be at or close to 2020 final levels, 46.8%. Harris has been stuck at 48 and a half points for a bit. Assuming this trend holds another 4 weeks we're looking at something like 48.8 to 46.8 baseline nationally or in that general area. Some of those undecideds are going for third parties, likely more left leaning ones.
All that accounting for if Trump wins just half the undecideds the final result gap would be around 2 points, similar to 2016 if not slightly smaller, which is probably a Trump win. He's converted enough to diehards he's gone from needing 2/3+ to just half. And Trump won with the undecideds both prior elections. Harris is improving, absolutely, but the changing third party situation is a braking factor absorbing and neutralizing it to a degree(in 2020 and especially 2016 Trump was bleeding more votes to guys like Gary Johnson, Jo Jorgenson, Rocky De Le Fuente, and Evan McMullin. This year the third party composition has shifted left thanks to the rise of the PSL, strengthing of the Greens, RFK Jr killing the small right wing bloc, and Libertarian infighting.). So this change was a net negative and Harris's growth has been somewhat absorbed in neutralizing this. That's also probably why Trump's raw base total is up, among other things a lot of hardliner Hoppean or Rothbardian LIbertarians jumped ship to him when Chase Oliver and the moderates won the party.
Take a swing state for example. Less accurate overall, but just a hypothetical, and it's a clean "get the most votes and it's yours" so no need to guess ratios. According to 538, There's 4 and a half points not locked in, Harris is leading by 0.4-0.7 and it's fluctuating day to day. Pennsylvania isn't a super 3rd party happy state compared to some of the sunbelt, and PSL and Cornel didn't get on, so that's a bit more favorable. Let's say 1 point goes to third party, a bit more Harris thanks to the internal shifts, but not by much. Of of the remaining 3.5, if 63% were to go to Trump, that's it, even with the best case 0.8 point base lead Harris loses. If it's more like 0.4 Trump just needs around 55% of the undecideds. That's it. And this state is better in the third party spread than some others. Trump won more than those numbers from them the last two elections.
Great analysis, thank you
So yeah, when people ask how Trump could be doing this well despite stuff like COVID deaths or Harris's gains, that's my reasoning.
- Significant gains in Libertarians who usually vote for the Libertarian Party
- Notable gains with young men.
- Marginal gains with Hispanic men
- Democrat losses among older white men attached to Biden.
Third Parties do not exist in a vacuum. I think way too many people have had their heads stuck in 2000 to realize this, they have trends that shift. Voting Third Party has helped democrats since at least 2008, and 2004 was pretty neutral. You could also argue it probably helped them in the 90s as Ross Perot was probably hurting Bush more so really 2000 was the odd one.
A lot of young voters don't always realize these factors are not set in stone. The Electoral College helped Democrats more in 2004-2012, it just didn't stick out because Obama was so absurdly popular it smothered it and Bush managed to hold onto Ohio by the skin of his teeth in 2004 preventing Kerry from winning via EC. Meanwhile 2000 went to the EC by basically a fluke(popular vote margin was the tightest ever of an election where it and the EC didn't agree, winning margin was tightest ever period, butterfly ballot issue, Bush probably would have won New Mexico if they recounted there) and 2016 did come down to that so people focus on that and ignore 2004-2012.
Or Swing States. The USA doesn't always have them at all, sometimes basically every state is up for grabs(See the 70s and 80s or the 30s and 40s), it depends on how divided by party line the country is at the time, it's cyclical. And when there are Swing States they aren't locked in, neither are solid states. California was a safe red state from the late 60s until the late 80s, then for about a decade it was considered a Swing State, and after 2000 it was considered a solid blue state. Virginia was a safe red state until 2004, then it was a swing state during Obama's years and 2016 before being considered a solid blue state. Iowa and Ohio and New Hampshire were THE swing states for decades (hence their good spots in the Primaries) until they weren't, two went safe red and one went safe blue. Sure, 2024 and 2020 are mostly the same(Florida is the only shift, it was considered a swing state in 2020 and safe red now), but 2016 had a ton of states up for grabs, and 2012 only had like 4 or 5(Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, and MAYBE Iowa?).
The Third Party votes have been hurting Republicans for years, just none of the elections were tight enough for it to have 2000 style effects. If America had ranked choice or run-off style ballots or simply no third parties allowed Trump would have won even harder in 2016, no third party means he carries the popular vote and gets an extra half a dozen states. Gary Johnson had 5 and a half percent of the vote and another 2 percent went to Evan McMullin, both right wingers, Plus another percent for the smaller right swing parties. Yeah Hillary would get the green vote, but say goodbye to New Hampshire, goodbye to New Mexico, goodbye to Minnesota. Even in 2020, in a world with no third parties Trump gets Georgia safely, probably gets Arizona, and Wisconsin is getting dangerously tight. He probably still loses, Wisconsin is highly unlikely to come up favorably, but still.
Now the script is flipped. Even in the states where Cornel and Claudia were gatekept, Green's have their leading lady back and the Libertarians are infighting badly, Constitution Party is still weakened. Georgia was on the verge of a Hat Trick(No Constitution Party, but the Greens + PSL + Cornel) prior to them saying Cornel and Claudia's votes wouldn't count, Virginia HAS a hat trick(and while it's considered a safe blue that that's going to eat into the margins massively, don't expect a 10 point win), and Wisconsin sorta has one, all the left parties are there, but so is the Constitution Party and RFK Jr. There's going to be a few more potential Democrats leaking out, and a few people who would normally vote Libertarian or Constitution voting Trump. Those margins matter. Honestly RFK Jr's role here was quite clever, he dropped off too late for the 4 or 5 parties signed up with him to do anything, and he further helped gimp the Libertarians, double filtering the moderates to Trump and helping the Leftist Faction get the pres pick.
A dead heat in polling is not an even race. We know Democrats need a significant lead to be break even on election day.
The Electoral College gives Republicans a significant advantage.
Its not just the EC. That exists, yes, but its not the biggest stumbling block for team D', this is:
Trump historically outperforms his polling. In 2020, even though he lost, he over performed his polling by 8 points. As in, he lost 2020, but he should have lost way worse based on what polling indicates. This is most-likely an issue with "likely voter" demographics models, in that Trump voters are regularly under surveyed as the don't look like likely voters on paper.
I got worried at first, but upon further inspection this is a return2ozma post.
Nothing here is truthful or holds any merit.
Good day
Honestly, you can't trust the tv news polls. They want people to watch and Trump gets them numbers.
quick we must go even further right! - dnc strategists
Democrats keep conceding right-leaning policies as if Republicans actually just want those policies
Republicans are reactionary - they don't just want tougher immigration policies. They want to hurt immigrants. If democrats push right, Republicans will just go further.
There is no moderate right-wing position that can win over moderate Republicans that they can't beat by going further right.
I swear if they come out as anti women bodily rights next...
I've seen some of Blue MAGA begging for George W Bush to endorse Harris. wtf.
Blue MAGA? Wtf are you talking about?
I remember how mad they got when Romney didn't endorse like they felt entitled to.
So you are one of those.
Why is the generation born because we fought the Nazis so into this shit?
They are the weak men created by good times. We are living through the hard times they created.
Fucking HOW?
A) Has Biden markedly improved your day to day life or indicated a massive amount of progressive changes to the system?
B) Is the system likely to radically change away from corporate control/lobbying and towards a strong government agenda any time soon?
If you answered no to both these questions, you should understand why people want Trump in. He represents radical change, a concentration of government power in the executive branch. Sweeping changes under the guise of helping "real Americans" and harming the usual scapegoats (immigrants, gangs, socialists).
That's the thing; Harris has played towards a center that is greatly weakened/absent in times of political division (she's not selling herself as being a progressive change, like for instance Obama did with his HOPE campaign).
Where as Trump has played to the far-right, which is actually present and there in divided times like this.
You have to play to the side that's there if you want enthusiasm.
Harris didn't play towards progressives who want change (Bernie Sanders crowd). So they're only voting to prevent Trump's fascism, not because they actively expect sweeping progress from Harris (who champions establishment causes like border control and Israel).
She hasn't escaped Biden and the status-quo corporate grind. Trump has escaped his conscience about appearing centrist. Division serves him, counts against her, because she's playing to the absent center, where he's not.
He represents radical change, a concentration of government power in the executive branch. Sweeping changes under the guise of helping “real Americans” and harming the usual scapegoats (immigrants, gangs, socialists).
While we know Trump is a conman, I would understand this as a rationale for those that didn't believe he was a conman, except we've already HAD 4 years of a Trump Presidency. If he was promising these great reforms for the little guy, why didn't he do any of them in the 4 years he was in office? Why do people think this time will be different?
These are all good points, but it's really not that complicated. Imagine if there were only two NFL football teams. The right are simply die-hard fans of their team and nothing will sway them to change their allegiance to the other side. Nothing.
Policy doesn't mean shit to them.
Integrity doesn't mean shit to them.
The Constitution doesn't mean shit to them.
Upholding a democracy doesn't mean shit to them.
As long as "their team" wins, that's all that matters. That's are not smart people we're dealing with here.
Dementia donnie is trying to thwart efforts to help Americans in the wake of two hurricanes. He wants to end democracy as we know it, and there are still people stupid enough to think he should run the place.
SMH.
nbc had the race tied at this point in 2012. how'd that election turn out?
all gas, no brakes.
A projected blowout is bad for ad revenue.
"Keep watching, our ad space is in great shape for the quarterly earnings report "
What about in 2020?...
They had Hillary with a ten point lead at this point in 2016.
If Harris starts speaking like Clinton then I'd be worried... as worried as a wiped server... you know... with a cloth.
Polling is broken.
What a world...
Please note the momentum shift that started just around the DNC convention. Ask yourself what changed in the Harris campaign at that time.
No, it started after the debate. The DNC told her to abandon her working rhetoric of "not going back." And they told Walz to stop using the weird moniker, which was the first negative connotation that ever really stuck to Trump. It's like they not only don't want to support actual progressive ideas that people actually want, but they also don't want to win.
Who answers polls?
Blame the polls if you want. The race is a coin flip. I find it hard to stomach too, but I'm not in denial about it.
Old people, mostly.
Not even giving them the click. I know who I'm voting for.
Margin of error above 3%. Non-story.
Not to mention, NBC ran the numbers with different turnout cases. In one of those cases, a very realistic but small few percentage point changes in turnout assumptions of different demographics could make the poll swing to 49% Harris to 46% Trump
How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results
Further, two other national polls released today showed the race as Harris+3. A lot of the dooming tends to be based on single polls. Yes the polls suggest race is close, but only paying attention to anything bad/mediocre isn't helpful either
Don't doom, take action instead
Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
People who downvote are encouraged to take Statistics 101.
<3
Either way we get Reagan's 12th term
You got downvotes, but I get your point. We still have scars from Reaganomics and other crimes.
13th
Just vibes will win the presidency...
Just like always.
Another 4 years of liberals crying about trump...
Kill yourself.
With what?