Hi folks, out of pure curiosity, I was poking some graphs.
It's been about half a year since the big API protest, so I was curious to see what Lemmy's crtitical mass looks like, what the staying power is, etc. Screenshots taken from https://the-federation.info/platform/73 on 2024-01-09. I'm posting screenshots because they're a snapshot in time, and because that stats server is very slow.
Because I'm posting on lemmy.ca, I'll post quite a few related to this instance, but it's probably more widely applicable and you can get graphs from your instance too. I'll also post some lemmy.world and lemmy.ml graphs, since they make interesting points of comparison -- biggest server, and original server.
First, lemmy-wide total users count, where this is a rolling one month window. If a user was online within the month, they count here.
First observation -- there's some jagged edges in the graph due to things popping in and out of the federation. So it's probably more useful to look at single servers. Lemmy.world came online pretty much coincidentally with the API protest and had open registration, so it makes a good data point. You can see the surge of users, then the plateau of the people who stuck around:
Lemmy.ml below has a similar curve, plus some sort of data artefact.
I suspect the data artifact is related to the transition from 0.18 to 0.19 and something changed in the way active users was counted in between. Lemmy.world is still running 0.18.5.
Notes: The difference between the peak and the plateau is higher on lemmy.world and lemmy.ml -- I suspect this is because they were more popular places to sign up during the protest. Whereas lemmy.ca has retained more users, as a percentage. Still, the total number of active users on each server is quite low.
In the same order (total, lemmy.world, lemmy.ml, lemmy.ca), total posts. The slope of this line represents post rate. Steeper line is better. Flat line means dead instance.
And comments. I wish there was a comments to posts ratio, which would be some indication of engagement levels. But you can sort of work it out.
Anyway, looks like post rate has decreased slightly since the initial bump, but are still looking good. But the comment rate hasn't flattened as much. So the users that were retained seem to be more engaged than the users from the initial bump. I think this is a good thing for the health of lemmy. Likewise, the growth in supported apps, improvements to the software (Scaled sort in 0.19 is night-and-day better than anything prior!), and others will allow lemmy to not only survive, but be ready for whatever influx happens next.
I want to send a special shout out to all the admins, particularly on my home instance of lemmy.ca, and the coders who keep improving things. Thanks for giving us all a home!
Here there's a different kind of self-censorship. Anything you do (including your upvotes) gets propagated out using the ActivityPub protocol to all instances that are subscribed to that community. So in theory, admins on different instances can tell what you're upvoting. A bad acting admin could stalk you here in a way that a mod never could on reddit - because mods couldn't look at your upvote history.
The good news is that they cannot delete or modify your content on other instances (only their own), so they'll never pull a spez and edit someone else's comment globally. And, bad acting admins will simply get defederated, so we should be self-policing (in theory).
Personally I love Lemmy as is, and as long as it doesn't die out, I don't care if it goes mainstream. The mainstream has a lot of apathetic trolls and idiots - Lemmy feels like early reddit did, when it was just nerds, techies, pirates, and the servers were down every day - but Lemmy is better because we rallied around open source this time
I feel similarly, except I wish more users were interacted with my sports communities too. Guess it's a "have your cake and eat it too" kind of problem.
Chicken and egg problem. Communities are too small to have conversation, so no one goes there for conversation. I'm a hockey fan. On reddit r/hockey is huge and busy, but so are all the team subs. Whereas on lemmy, if I post to the team sub, it's just crickets. So I suppose that if all the hockey fans all hang out in [email protected] together, we might have critical mass for a conversation now and then. And we can worry about our team subs later, if the general community outgrows one place.
Same! Feels like it's large enough to keep some balls rolling, and that's all I ever wanted. It would be great for some of my more niche interests to have more representation (and I try and contribute to that) but if it would stay like it is now, I'm down to clown.
Thanks for sharing this, this is really interesting.
My hope is that when Reddit announces their IPO, more people will start talking about wishing for alternatives. I hope this motivates a few people who checked it out and left and lots of new people to take a first look, and when they do I hope they find an already active community that produces enough content to retain more people and generate more content.
When the reddit API protests occurred, lemmy wasn't really ready for the influx either. Historically, when a social network dies, it's some combination of a protest and there being a pre-existing landing place that is ready to receive the influx. In the case of digg dying, that was reddit ready and waiting.
But lemmy had so many rough edges and was almost entirely unknown at the time of the reddit protest -- bugs, missing features, no apps... For most reddit users, even with the 3rd party shutdown, moving to lemmy at the time was objectively worse.
You're right though -- the next time something happens, lemmy is now established, the apps exist, many of the bugs and missing features have been dealt with, etc.
Another important detail is that Digg v4 pissed off most of the userbase, so the impact was pretty much immediate. Reddit APIcalypse pissed off only power users instead; the impact will only come off later (sadly likely past IPO).
Totally remember the lack of apps. Initially, I just had to use Lemmy through a mobile browser. Lots of devs were working hard to publish their apps, and after a few months we had lots of options. That was just amazing how quickly it happened.
BTW shout out to Bean, my favorite Lemmy client. It’s not perfect, so in some cases I still use Voyager to fill in the gaps, so bonus points for Voyager too.
Those results might be slightly skewed by alternate accounts. When I first joined during the Reddit Exodus I created this account on lemmy.world, but the instance suffered a LOT of downtime for the first month or so, so I created a few other accounts on lemmy.ml and sh.itjust.works so I could still browse while lemmy.world was down.
After the instance stabilized I pretty much stopped using the other accounts, so I, personally, am 2 of the people who "left" by leaving the other accounts inactive.
Same. It wasn't clear how to choose an instance, so I ended up creating accounts in three different places and posting a couple times before settling on this account. I haven't used the other accounts in months, so they're part of that surge.
Lemmy is big enough that we don't need to wait for that. We can grow organically, but there are still some issues that need to get worked out. One issue is that lemmy is too anonymous and that leads to it not attracting content creators that don't actually want to be anonymous and want to create a presence. I rarely see high effort OC on lemmy and I think that's a big reason for it. People that create content that takes tens of hours to create aren't going to bother with a platform with no kind of verification option where they can show that they're actually the real creator and not a copycat account since you can have the same username on any instance. I think that could be fixed if there were a special instance for verified accounts only that content creators or notable individuals could use to post from.
Personally speaking, and I don't think it's too controversial of a view, but I kinda like that about lemmy.
I have come to hate "personal" focused social media and prefer "content" focused social media. I don't care about random people or someone hoping to become an internet personality, I'm here for varied content and a selection of opinions in the comments. I don't want those comments to be from the same people, and if they are, I'd prefer to be oblivious to that. I kinda like how lemmy goes further than Reddit in that it gets rid of cumulative karma counts too, hopefully means we avoid seeing a Lemmy equivalent of karmawhoring.
There was loads of high effort OC on Reddit, people typically weren't doing it to create a presence (and if they were, they couldn't have picked a harder platform to accomplish that, other than maybe 4chan)
One issue is that lemmy is too anonymous and that leads to it not attracting content creators that don’t actually want to be anonymous and want to create a presence.
So what? I find it strange how many people on link aggregators like reddit and lemmy/kbin don't seem to understand the point of a link aggregator. There are plenty of places to go on the internet if you want to create "a presence." But link aggregators aren't it. The closest it gets are novelty accounts and power users.
A lot of reddit's issues trace back to the fact that they stopped being satisfied with being a link aggregator because there isn't much money in it. It's been all downhill ever since they started morphing into a more traditional social media website and trying to attract more content creators by doing things like making userpages their own subreddits and adding half-assed knockoff "features" from more popular social media sites/apps. Lemmy isn't profit driven and therefore doesn't need to parrot reddit's mistakes. There's nothing wrong with link aggregators being link aggregators.
One issue is that lemmy is too anonymous and that leads to it not attracting content creators that don’t actually want to be anonymous and want to create a presence
That's not an issue. Reddit was equally anonymous yet it did just fine (relatively speaking). The different users' usernames that can theoretically appear the same can be fixed by making it mandatory to show your instance next to your username, rather than hiding it if you change your default username. But even without that anyone can hover over your profile name and see which instance you're from, so really you can't actually deceive people regarding the nature of your account.
That makes me think they it might be a good idea to have an instance called @therealdeal.com or something. You could even make it a complete service where you provide services for promotional/marketing activities, etc.
Looking at the rest of the data (especially the sustained linear increase in posts across the whole network), I'm increasingly skeptical that the drop in "active users" is really all that meaningful. Speaking for myself, when the big migration happened I created three accounts on different instances, but I've found myself only consistently using one of them. If a significant percentage of the rest of you did similar, that means there could've been what looks like a huge drop in the number of "active users" even though the number of actual people using the platform remained the same!
Yes, i made four, because when i joined Lemmy, everyone seemed to urge new users to spread across the fediverse. So, i did. But over time, i did away with two accounts and am contemplating ditching another one.
I think posts is being inflated with bots copying reddit, my subscribed feed has noticeably slowed and even trying to find more communities to get more posts hasn't been a huge help.
Okay, more serious answer. You look like you're on kbin, so I don't know if this applies -- nevertheless.
On Lemmy 0.19, the Scaled sort algorithm is such a good improvement over (Hot/All/Top/...) that existed prior to 0.19. It's basically a Hot sort, but it's weighted by community size. So if you're subscribed to a small community, that gets one post a week, it's still likely to end up in your feed. I've noticed a huge improvement when switching to it as my default sort -- suddenly that weird music community I subbed to, but never noticed any of the posts -- is in my feed. Etc.
Lemmy.world is still on 0.18, but when they upgrade (I have no information on that process) I suspect that people should be switching to it as their default sort for a better experience if they're into niche topics.
I chatted with the lemmy.world folks about a month or so ago and they mentioned that 0.19 wasn't fully stable yet. The Lemmy instances being split is a real pain for app developers lol can't wait till this gets resolved tbh
That's cool and all, but sorting is only part of the issue.
The other part is that they're simply aren't enough people here yet. That will change with time, of course, I'm not too concerned about that. Hopefully the sorting will help draw attention to vacant communities in need of filling.
I still need to put in the work to sub to all the alternatives. I had hundreds of subs and my front page was so curated. But now on Lemmy, I tried Hot for new/fresh content, but I have to browse Active most of the time due to the amount of just single up vote posts on Hot.
I just wish we had more people. I’m doing my part of being active though!
I’ve tried to go back to Reddit here or there, and I literally can’t do it. I only visit it for very select communities that don’t exist here.
The post frequency isn’t the same here, but the quality of the posts and the comments is so much higher. I’ve said this before, but current Lemmy reminds me of Reddit in the early 2010’s before it got shitty. One of the great things about early Reddit was that it was more mature, people tended to assume good intentions more often, and it promoted logical dialogue. That has VERY MUCH been lost in Reddit’s current incarnation.
I do wish there was an instance that becomes perhaps half as popular as Reddit did at its peak. Just barely enough so we can expose to opinions outside the typical young tech-enthusiast crowd.
Sweet post. To me this looks like the makings of a sustainable community and I remain pretty optimistic. Curious what the numbers for Kbin would look like.
Here's the kbin graphs directly on the site that generates the charts. I'm unfamiliar with kbin as a backend, so I don't know how to interpret any of their numbers. But you can play: https://the-federation.info/platform/184
I'm here because of the API stuff, I was a reddit sync user so when sync made their Lemmy app I joined.
Honestly Lemmy feels much more confusing than Reddit used to, I don't fully understand the federation stuff and different worlds or whatever, I imagine there's a lot of people confused about it like me.
I'm happy to stay and contribute but I think I need to figure out how to use this on my desktop because I only check Lemmy because of the sync android app.
Any tips on how to get started migrating my experience to desktop? Like I literally don't know what URL I would go to.
The most intuitive analogy to federation to me is email. You may have an account with one provider (gmail.com in the example of email, or lemmy.world in the example of Lemmy) but you can send emails to other providers (email example) or post messages to other instances (Lemmy).
Just like with email providers, a Lemmy instance may decide not to allow communication with another instance - this is "defederation." Instances that allow communication are "federated."
Just like email, you don't normally need to worry much about whether you are on the same instance as a particular community or user - it just works.
This is a simplification, but for me is a good working model.
The url for you would simply be lemmy.world. Just login with your account from the app and start scrolling, no need to migrate anything.
Federation in principle is actually really simple. Basically there are multiple servers (aka instances) run by different people and with their own urls, and they just send each other messages to stay in sync. E g. if you post something on LW, that server also sends it to all the others (all it is federated with), so they can show it to their users too. If someone upvotes the post then their server sends that info to all the other servers as well, so everyone can update their vote counter for that post. That's it, that's the magic.
The result is that all instances have the same content, and users can message each other no matter what instance they are on. That means it doesn't really matter which one you sign up on, and no content is lost if one of them goes down.
You could just go to lemmy.world. That's your home instance, it works kinda like an email provider. And if you (for example) use gmail you can access your mail at the Gmail website and the same is true for Lemmy.
But just like you could download an email client you can get yourself an Lemy client and use that*. That client will make API requests to your home instance to get the posts it presents to you. Your home instance in turn will communicate with other instances in order to show their posts to you.**
clients/websites you could try
Here is one list and here is another. Also note that some clients are actually webapps.
* you probably know this considering you use the Lemmy client sync
** Disclaimer: the last part about how Lemmy works is just how I think it works based on what I have read. I could be completely wrong.
I think these numbers are really good. I was using Memmy client before and for some reason it always displayed lower than actual count of comments on posts, so I had the impression that activities were really dying down. I wouldn’t click a post to go to comments because I thought there were barely any, so I would scroll through everything so fast that for a while I stopped browsing altogether. Feels nice to be back - with a different account because lemm.ee started having a weird bug for logging in
I've also been building a lemmy web client (Quiblr) and I can tell ya that these types bugs often come up due to API issues. Honestly, it can be difficult at times to know if it is actually an API issue or if it is an app bug. So app bugs go unresolved because they get written off as API issues lol The alternative is that you invest a lot of time trying to fix something, only to realize that it is out of your control
I think Lemmy's API issues will be fixed, but the growing pains are definitely there!
Bug reporting in general is kind of confusing for Lemmy users who aren't intimately familiar with it's development.
For example, filtering comments by date on user profiles just doesn't seem to work. You can sort properly, but try filtering them by day, week, month, etc, and it never filters them. It always shows all comments from All Time. But this sort of filtering works fine everywhere else. Happens on the three Lemmy apps I've used, and the web UI last I checked.
But I'm not sure where that bug is actually coming from, and I haven't seen any other bug reports about it. Is that an issue for Lemmy's dev, Lemmy's UI devs, the app devs, the instance admins, etc. I don't know who to submit it to.
I don't want to waste anyone's time making them bug hunt something that isn't under their umbrella.
Hey, can you share some more about this login bug? I'm not aware of any login issues currently. Could it be related to an app you were using not supporting 0.19 yet?
I wish I had written down the bug, but it’s possible that was the reason, because the client started saying “invalid login” while I was already logged in. The thing is, I then visited the website and had trouble logging in there too, it kept getting stuck on loading. I clicked “rest password” and it finally logged in 😅. Then I tried changing my password and at that point apple keychain's autofill might've messed up and remembered a wrong one. I now reset it again and the client works.
Seems the latest version, 0.19.1, has some kind of federation bug or something. My communitys posts has gone from a steady 10-20 upvotes to just one or a very few since I upgraded my server.
That makes it somehow unwelcomed to post, thinking it doesn't really matter.
I hope they'll find a fix soon :-) good luck to them!
Witnessing Lemmy grow in real time is the best way to say it's natural growth. We had no clients, laggy servers, downtime and bare as bones communities.
It'll take years to get a decent chunk of Reddit users.
That's nice. Reddit just needs to fuck up once again and we'll maybe double again in users, then lose half of those that joined and be at 50% from now.
Once Forgejo and Gitlab have ActivityPub, more services like Wordpress and Flipboard activate it, and kbin/mbin/lemmy/mastodon becomes able to interact with them, then we might see some organic growth. If we get to a point where people don't even know they're part of the fediverse yet interact with it naturally, then maybe we'll see explosive growth.
All in time though. There's no rush.
chart doesn't seem to show up on lemmy. Not sure what I did wrong there, but it's the first time I tried an image in a comment. I guess this way works better.
I find the plateau quite puzzling (lemmy.world, but the total looks very similar):
There was quite a steep increase, and then it suddenly stopped.
I would rather expect it to slow down, than to stop that abruptly.
We're looking at a fairly large group of people making a decision to create an account on Lemmy. There are plenty of reasons to expect it to be fuzzy. Even if they all responded to one particular event in time, some would have done so immediately, others the next day, few more even later.
Difference in the way active users is counted on v0.19 versus earlier versions. On earlier versions, you're only counted as an active user if you made a post or a comment, but as of v0.19, it also counts people who upvote as active. lemmy.world hasn't updated to v0.19 yet, so you don't see the bump on their graph (yet).
I suspect the data artifact is related to the transition from 0.18 to 0.19 and something changed in the way active users was counted in between.
My understanding is they started counting votes as activity.
The difference between the peak and the plateau is higher on lemmy.world and lemmy.ml -- I suspect this is because they were more popular places to sign up during the protest.
Makes sense that people who care enough to look into smaller instances would be more committed.