Can a socialist ex-marine fill Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia?
Can a socialist ex-marine fill Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia?
Zach Shrewsbury faces an improbable task to replace the conservative Democrat in the face of a Republican onslaught – but he won’t be put off
Zach Shrewsbury faces an improbable task to replace the conservative Democrat in the face of a Republican onslaught – but he won’t be put off
The party can't find a candidate further to the right than Manchin, and Manchin isn't seeking re-election because he knows he can no longer win.
Moving to the right has failed. Even if Shrewsbury loses, and I'm so fucking delighted to say this, he's the best candidate you have. If he doesn't win, it's because centrist Democrats stayed home when they didn't get their first choice and didn't want to vote blue no matter who.
If he does win, centrists were lying about progressives not being able to win red states.
Centrists have always lied about progressives being able to win in red states. The key in WV (and most red states) is a heavy emphasis on worker power and advancing organized labor.
If he doesn't win, it's because centrist Democrats stayed home when they didn't get their first choice and didn't want to vote blue no matter who.
No, it means Trump voters refused to vote for him when enough of them were ok with voting for a centrist Democrat.
69% of West Virginia voted for Trump. You cannot win without at least some of them. We shall see if a self described Socialist can get enough of them but it doesn't look good.
There's a fair few who don't vote at all anymore. Also, many Trump voters did so because it was a chance to get away from establishment politics. They could as easily see the same thing in a socialist candidate.
West Virginia has pretty equal numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans (36.5% & 36.8% respectively) so this will be a battle over turn out and convincing the remaining voters. We'll see where his numbers are in six months.
Comparing party registration is a useless exercise. In states with open or semi-closed primaries unaffiliated/independent is always going to be a sizable bloc, and those voters almost always vote with one party or another (i.e. they're not truly independent swing voters who can be swayed). Just because WV has a huge chunk of independent voters doesn't mean the partisan lean of voters is anything close to even. West Virginia is an R+22 state, and the battle will be much less about turnout than it is about messaging and recapturing the attention of the working class.
this will be a battle over turn out
And I fully intend to hold centrist Democrats responsible for their turnout or lack thereof. The party is as entitled to their votes now as it was when it was demanding progressives' votes for Manchin. And I'm not expecting the candidate to do a fucking thing to please centrists. They're not Republicans. That was enough when it was Manchin. Remember, progressives vote with the party 95% of the time!
If he doesn't win, it's because centrist Democrats stayed home when they didn't get their first choice and didn't want to vote blue no matter who.
Why do you think that?
West Virginia used to vote Democrat, but has swung pretty hard right in recent years.
The last time the state voted Democrat in a presidential election was for Bill Clinton in 1996, who got 51.51% of the vote. Obama only got 35% of the vote in 2012, and neither Hillary nor Biden got over 30%.
Currently, Manchin is the only Democrat left in statewide office. Everyone else either died or retired, or they switched parties.
Why do you think that the only possible explanation for Shrewsbury losing is centrist Democrats not 'voting vote no matter who' instead of Republicans outnumbering Democrats in the state?
It's a little silly to declare that no matter what the outcome, the test proves your case.
Really? Up until now, every time a centrist is protected by the party, we're told that it's because progressives can't win. Every time a centrist loses, it's because progressives stay home.
If the test seems silly or unfair now, it was silly and unfair when centrists were using it, and you had no complaints then.
I doubt it, but I'm happy to see him try.
That would be amazing. Wishing this guy nothing but the best.
I think he's trying to be WV's John Fetterman. Good on him. I hope he can pull it off.
Let's be honest. He'll need to be a lot better than Fetterman. Pennsylvania is much bluer than west Virginia and Dr Oz was a pathetic candidate. I really hope Fetterman is laying a solid reelection foundation right now because his reelection run will probably be more difficult. Jim Justice is known statewide, he's wealthy, and has won the governor's mansion as a Democrat and as a Republican.
I doubt PA will be more red in 6 years. It's always been a tight race, but besides Trump, it's generally been tight in the dems favor. When the GOP held onto Toomey in '16, it was because the dems put up such a shitty candidate (oddly enough, that's because Fetterman took the progressive vote and the most conservative dem won the primary that year)
I think if Shrewsbury gets people out to vote, he has a chance. WV has low voter turnout, maybe its electorate could mobilize for a socialist.
I highly highly doubt it, but sure, he is precisely the type of candidate that should be running instead of Manchins.
Yeah don't use the S-word, but lean hard into workers reform, pro-union, safety nets, etc.
Basically run on those ideals but don't use that term.
If you can, donate to his campaign. I'm kicking him a five spot every week from here on out.
Not if he actually describes himself as a socialist.
His page says that he has helped organize multiple campaigns from Seattle to WV, focusing on the community driven issues that are forgotten by both parties.
He's an activist and successful rabble rouser, which is why they are painting him as a socialist.
Why would Patriotic Republicans vote for an Ex Marine who isn't backed by Corporate Interests?
Sure. He can definitely win.
The idea that we exist on a political spectrum complexly misrepresents the political reality we live in.
God I hope so.
Can't use the s word in West Virginia. Best you're gonna get is a corporate stooge democrat like Manchin.
Everyone hates it when I say it but if I had to choose between manchin and a generic Republican to be the west Virginian senator I'd pick manchin 100% of the time. I really hope Shrewsbury is successful. He'll need to raise money and he'll need to do well in the debates. There will be more Democrats coming into the race soon I imagine.
Can’t use the s word in West Virginia. Best you’re gonna get is a corporate stooge democrat like Manchin.
This is the complete misunderstanding of American politics that the DNC and DCCC have been trying to convince us of since 2008, in-spite of our lying eyes.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Charles Town, West Virginia, was where state authorities executed the abolitionist John Brown after he led an attack on a federal armory a few miles down the road in Harpers Ferry, a pivotal moment in the lead-up to the civil war.
In recent years he has used his power as a swing vote in Congress to stop several of Joe Biden’s legislative priorities – attracting the ire of progressives and prompting Shrewsbury to mount a primary challenge.
Political analysts do not expect voters to elect the Democratic candidate – whoever that turns out to be – and predict Manchin will be replaced by either Governor Jim Justice or Congressman Alex Mooney, the two leading Republicans in the Senate race.
In the years that followed, he guarded the perimeter at the US base in Guantánamo Bay, and was deployed to Japan, Malaysia and South Korea before eventually moving to Seattle and then returning to West Virginia, where he realized how bereft his home state was of the prosperity he saw elsewhere in the country and overseas.
Since 2020, Shrewsbury has helped towns dig out from flooding, door-knocked in the narrow Appalachian valleys – known as hollers – to find out what residents were looking for from the state legislature, and talked to mayors and city councils about the opportunities presented by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which incentivizes consumer usage of renewable energy, including home solar panels.
Despite the state’s conservative leanings, Sam Workman, the director of the Institute for Policy Research and Public Affairs at West Virginia University, believed Manchin may have had a path to victory had he decided to run.
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