Trump Is Spooked and His 2024 Rivals Know It
Trump Is Spooked and His 2024 Rivals Know It
The sober reality of nominating a thrice-indicted ex-President is finally sinking in for the GOP. Trump's recent behavior is not helping.
Back during the first months of the Trump presidency, then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich made a prescient—if not entirely original—observation about his one-time rival for the Republican nomination: “You don't put an animal in the corner without the animal striking back, [and] you don't put a politician in the corner … without them expecting to strike back at you.”
Kasich was correct in his assessment of Trump’s approach to leading Washington, and it’s a strategy that’s re-emerged as the ex-President faces increasingly urgent risks coming at him from all directions. Luck, it turns out, is a finite commodity. And a ginned-up gerbil can do more damage than a complacent cheetah.
Trump is under indictment in three separate criminal cases and is out on bond. A fourth criminal case out of Georgia could come as soon as this week, and preparations underway in Fulton County sure look like prosecutors in Atlanta are bracing for a chaotic scene. The trials would derail Trump for weeks if not months at the exact time he would need to be pandering to voters. And, despite being atop the polls of Republicans looking to be the presidential nominee in 2024, the risks to both his frontrunner status and his freedom are real enough that it’s sending him spiraling in search of a distraction.
“IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!” That’s what Trump posted on his Truth Social account over the weekend, prompting Justice Department lawyers to ask a judge in the case involving election interference to issue a protective order. The not-at-all-subtle warning was part of a litany of all-caps threats that brought to mind various unhinged stretches of posts when he used to frequent the platform previously known as Twitter. When Trump wasn’t complaining that he was a victim of a politically motivated prosecution (“WHAT THE DEPARTMENT OF INJUSTICE IS DOING TO ME IS THE SAME THING DONE BY THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES ALL OVER THE WORLD.”), he was going after the U.S. team for its loss in the Women’s World Cup, singling out star player (and Trump critic) Megan Rapinoe for an errant foot: “WOKE EQUALS FAILURE. Nice shot Megan, the USA is going to Hell!!! MAGA.”
Sure, Trump’s social-media footprint has never been a particularly sophisticated logic-based realm. But for the first time since he joined the presidential fray back in 2015, Trump sounds genuinely scared, like he finally seems to be realizing his luck may be unique but not limitless. His knack for defying political gravity has been evidenced since his first campaign, when any other nominee would have been felled by the same series of missteps, scandals, and self-immolation; Trump instead somehow rode the fire-engulfed dumpster all the way to the North Lawn of the White House.
Trump has long enjoyed lashing out at those he perceives as insufficiently loyal. No one has been immune, be they real challengers like Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio or just perceived threats, as were the cases of Pope Francis, George W. Bush, and Megyn Kelly. But these latest attacks, somehow, feel different in a changed environment that no longer guarantees fearful fealty from his rivals. Where he previously launched his rockets with abandon, he is now being more direct to respond to would-be usurpers.
To Trump’s credit, his reflex appears to be more tactical than in the past.
Take, for instance, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the closest thing that Trump has to a rival for the nomination next year. While Trump enjoys a massive lead over the Anti-Woke Warrior from the Sunshine State, DeSantis has been working on retooling a failure-to-launch bid, and it seems like he’s rethinking his deference to Trump. In an interview that aired on NBC News this week, DeSantis for the first time finally stopped pussyfooting around whether Trump won in 2020. "No, of course he lost," DeSantis said. "Joe Biden’s the President." After more than 1,000 days of playing coy games and dodging any declaration about Biden’s legitimacy, DeSantis has finally concluded it is time to treat Trump like the man to dethrone.
DeSantis, who on Tuesday replaced his top political hand, had been walking the line. For months, the default has felt like a backhanded defense of Trump at every turn, living both in contempt and cower of the ex-President. But two weeks ago, during a swing through Iowa, DeSantis subtly jabbed his one-time self-considered patron. “I don’t consider myself to be an entertainer,” DeSantis said in Osceola. “I’m a leader. And that’s what you get for me, somebody that will deliver results.” The ceiling of the distillery where he spoke didn’t collapse, and DeSantis marched on. (Trump, naturally, told a conservative radio host that DeSantis should drop out for the good of the party.)
DeSantis’ footing—and Trump’s counter-punch—has seemed to grow stronger in recent days. Until recently, only former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has been an unabashed critic of Trump’s return to power, a lonely spot but one that is starting to have some pals testing its viability. After all, 78 looming felony charges gives even the most mild of candidates permission to at least raise the question of Trump’s true viability in a rematch against Joe Biden. “This election needs to be about Jan. 20, 2025, not Jan. 6, 2021,” DeSantis said in Waverly, Iowa, during that weekend bus tour.
Similarly, former Vice President Mike Pence—the one who spent four years as Trump’s loyal and self-censoring understudy—has started to rev up his critique of the ex-boss, and thus draw his ire. While Pence has hinted at his antipathy toward Trump and, in particular, his former boss’ conduct on Jan. 6, 2021, the intensity has increased of late. And not coincidentally, Trump has targeted more of his public attacks on Pence, as he realizes that his former vice president poses a real threat to his legal woes, given his first-hand access to the West Wing during the final weeks of Trump’s tour there.
Pence predicted Trump’s realization was coming, telling The New York Times on July 30: “I think we’re coming to a fork in the road.”
I hate to rain on this parade, but there's no guarantee Biden will pull it off in a rematch with Trump. It was way too damn close in 2020, and the MAGA base is as fired up as ever these days. The "sane middle," if it still exists, needs to turn out hard, because if Trump wins this thing, I for one our democracy is freakin' toast.
Make sure to actually vote.
Too many people are too busy complaining about political threats and then forget to go vote on election day. The turnout rate in the US is incredibly low compared to other mature democracies. Vote! Local, state, national. Every time.
There was a recent article that mentioned that it might not be so close anymore due to the results of anti-vaccine politics and the effects it had on the death rate.
It was way too damn close in 2020
Due to electorial college and gerrymandering. Looking at the number of votes it wasn't close at all. There have been loads of articles regarding the illegal gerrymandering where in various cases the illegal ones were still kept as any change was blocked.
It's a close election because it's manipulated.
it might not be so close anymore due to the results of anti-vaccine politics and the effects it had on the death rate.
That and the general passage of time means there's fewer old people around that voted in 2020 and there's a bunch of people that were too young to vote in 2020 that will be eligible to vote in 2024. It seems to zoomers are more politically engaged than expected (taking away rights will do that).
Besides that, Biden got more votes than Trump before Jan. 6, before Roe was overturned, before Trump was indicted multiple times. Is there going to be a lot of people that voted for Biden in 2020 that will change their vote to the guy that tried to throw out their vote last time around?
Definitely not guaranteed biden wins, but you have to admit trump is toxic. He directly helped lead to the republicans underperforming in the 2022 midterms, and his mere existence on a ballot energizes people to get out and vote against him. It's not looking good for the guy, and anything's possible, but I really don't think he will win.
This even assumes Trump gets in the race. There's a lot of contenders right now, and some of them like DeSantis have a decent head of steam behind them. Sure, Ron doesn't have Donald's charisma and ability to work a crowd, but he's a lot more baldfaced as a fascist, and that might be what he needs if the GOP keeps playing the Culture War angle.
Is there a sane middle?
Like does sanity exist on an entirely separate axis from stupidity and from ignorance, or can you be sane and stupid? I’m not sure, but I think sanity may be less relevant than competence.
I doubt you can be a competent voter in the middle. There isn’t really a compromise there, on any issue except maybe corporate welfare. Maybe you can be a reasoned centrist if you manage a hedge fund or something. Even then you are probably supposed to be sociopathically voting for tax breaks.
I have zero faith in the middle, and consider them all cryptofascists until proven stupid. Maybe that’s why both parties try so hard to court the centrist “swing” vote: they know centrists are enriched with gullible idiots.
I feel you about the sane middle. I am a Democrat and likely will vote for Biden regardless, but even the prospect of having a republican nominee like Trump, Pence, or DeSantis terrifies me. I really hope unenrolled, independents and moderate Republicans vote for almost anyone else in the primary. I think the mayor of Miami and someone from North Dakota (a senator?) are running. Don't know a ton about them but they seem less mean-spirited as far as I know. I just have this horrible imaginary scene in my head where the Republican National Convention has a remote telecast set up from Donald Trump's cell block. Or maybe there's an announcement that says "Our candidate must leave the convention early because he has a curfew with his house arrest." Or even Trump just excusing himself several times throughout the convention to return correspondence from his lawyers, the courts, or publicists. It would be so embarrassing for the party and to the country to allow a convict or near-convict to compete so closely for the highest office in the land.
You'd think they'd be going for the kill in that case. Only one to show any bit of a spine is Pence, as shocking as that is
Only one to show any bit of a spine is Pence, as shocking as that is
dude, Pence was back to sucking trump's dick the moment Jan 6 was over. Like. he was afraid to get into a secret service SUV because he didn't know the driver and thought he might be getting dissappeared, and he's still protecting trump without stepping over any lines himself.
he's the epitome of a spineless coward. all of his comments on the matter have been non-asnwers, as well. The only thing that has any amount of spine is his "oh I took notes" but even that's a moral cop out.
They all wand to normalize being above the law. So they are going to do an insane dance around the whole thing rather than condemn Trump for sedition. Pence it already pinned to saving the state so he really has to lean into it.
His spine will disappear again, I'm sure.
It's beyond my comprehension that the Democrats aren't able to launch a candidate that is better and younger than Biden. I mean, Trump and Biden, are those the best GOP and DEMs have to offer?
I understand the feeling but personally biden has accomplished some things and has others in motion where I would like him to have 4 more years to complete them. At least he does not roll over at every defeat and comes back at the issues from another angle.
I don't understand the obsession about Biden's age. He's done great work and had one of most productive terms in the last century. Look at all the bills he's gotten passed, the judges appointed! He lost some fights but those fights were probably not winnable if some other Democrat were in his place. Who gives a shit if he's old if he's still able to do the job?
Meanwhile it's a statistical fact that incumbents have an easier time getting elected than new people. It would be certifiably insane for the Democrats to put a new person up instead of an incumbent, it would be tantamount to throwing the election away. When the stakes are this high, why would they ever do that?
Gerontocracy
They are able to but they don't actually care about winning. They only care about keeping their gravy trains running
I don't see anyone who has built anything over the years and developed a base. Politicians today seem to be mainly just reactionary, like users on social media just tossing out memes and rants and producing nothing.
The question is which candidate has better chances in the general election? Even if I like a few candidates better than Biden, they would get steamrolled in the general, leaving us with emperor Turnip Dump.
Thanks man. Very interesting times indeed
It really is very interesting.
It seems the Republican party has a conundrum. The only candidate capable of firing up their base is a candidate that also fires up a much bigger majority of Americans against them.
The game plan worked in 2016, but has failed ever since then.
Still, it seems they are going to stick with it for another go around...
Joe Biden is going to be the first octogenarian elected president, just because Republicans don't have a better alternative.
Really interesting times.
It seems the Republican party has a conundrum. The only candidate capable of firing up their base is a candidate that also fires up a much bigger majority of Americans against them.
the other issue they have is that if they dump the chump... then the chump will go full scorched earth and run anyhow.
Trump, the ultimate wedge issue.
I don't want to jinx it, but it is hard to see drumpf winning over those demographics that roundly rejected him and his toxicity in 2020.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Kasich was correct in his assessment of Trump’s approach to leading Washington, and it’s a strategy that’s re-emerged as the ex-President faces increasingly urgent risks coming at him from all directions.
“IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!” That’s what Trump posted on his Truth Social account over the weekend, prompting Justice Department lawyers to ask a judge in the case involving election interference to issue a protective order.
His knack for defying political gravity has been evidenced since his first campaign, when any other nominee would have been felled by the same series of missteps, scandals, and self-immolation; Trump instead somehow rode the fire-engulfed dumpster all the way to the North Lawn of the White House.
No one has been immune, be they real challengers like Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio or just perceived threats, as were the cases of Pope Francis, George W. Bush, and Megyn Kelly.
After more than 1,000 days of playing coy games and dodging any declaration about Biden’s legitimacy, DeSantis has finally concluded it is time to treat Trump like the man to dethrone.
“He’s delusional, and now he wants to show he’s a tough guy,” Trump sniped at his former running mate, who testified for more than five hours before the federal grand jury back in April and spoke candidly about the events before and during the Jan. 6 uprising.
I'm a bot and I'm open source!
Not many contenders on the Republican side to Trump right now. Maybe things will change.
OT, but does anyone know what brand the presidential umbrella is? It looks like quality.
If it's the one from his arraignment, it's a trump branded umbrella that says "TRUMP" in gold letters on the side you can't see. Which, if it's anything like his other branded stuff, it's most likely crap, and you can buy one if you are easily parted from your money.
As evidenced by him simply discarding them when they prove too difficult to close.
Slow news day?
How many federal indictments should it take before I start worrying?
There are no rivals. Despite Trump's legal woes, he is far and away, with a commanding lead, the top pick for GOP presidential candidate.
Which says an awful lot of terrible things about the state of our constituency. We're fucked.
Cornel West 2024