Please note that in Germany you get 2 votes in the federal election. 1st is for a candidate to directly represent your district, 2nd is for a party nation wide. The map only shows the election result for the 2nd vote.
Here's another map to show the party affiliation of winners of the 1st vote:
Colors are the same, except blue. Blue represents CSU, essentially the Bavarian version of the CDU (Christian Democratic Union).
For anyone interested in psephology or electoral systems, the system Germany uses is called Mixed-Member Proportional. It mixes the benefits of FPTP (having a local member who is your local area's most liked candidate) with proportional systems (having the overall Bundestag proportionally representing the will of the people).
The system is pretty neat, but it does come with some issues. See all those dark blue districts in Bavaria? That's way more seats for the CSU than they would be entitled to by the proportional representation.
Previously, these "overhanging mandates" were handled by simply increasing the size is Parliament until proportionality is met ("compensate mandates"). This was fine for decades, where there were always only a couple of those. But as CSU votership dropped (among other things), we were looking at more than 200 additional MEPs (in a parliament of officially 598 seats).
So it got reformed. Parliament now has a fixed 630 seats. The "overhanging mandates" get dropped based on the margin by which they won their electoral district (with some sorting by state mixed in). Most of those districts still got their representative via the party lists, but there actually are 4 districts that are unrepresented now. So it's not a perfect system either.
It's the one people talk about most for a new Canadian system, but honestly it just seems unnecessarily complicated to me. It's a minority that can even name their representative.
Sounds like it’s following in America’s footsteps, where rural and rust belt regions were kinda left behind by the federal government. The south is more complex but similar.
Taking the ex-communist countries as a whole, my impression is that forced social progress gets in the way of real social progress. Add a shitty economy on top of that, and you have fertile ground for fascists.
I read a long time ago that the divide was quire real in germany, the esteners had bad education (thank you Soviet Union) and were generally way poorer than the rich west germans, which lead to all kind of problems and the east germans felt like slave workers for the rich BMW drivers.
I don't know how much that played a role in the election but I sure think it's a breeding ground for a populistic party ...
"Bad education"? WTF are you talking about? The east experienced a full-on brain-drain after the borders were dissolved and the people who stayed got screwed by the Treuhand.
20% is 1/5. It is still too much but not the end. 80% did not vote for them. And the left go stronger too and keeps growing. This is the beginn of the fight, not the end.
“Extremes” both sides, ie. the Nazis and the Left party, are more popular in the east, no doubt because it is poorer, so people are less satisfied with the status quo.
It looks like it's just West-Berlin + a suburb of West-Berlin, while the rest of old East-Germany went fascist.
Edit: I had misread the map when I made the above comment. The CDU in West-Berlin are not the only non fascists, East-Berlin has not gone fascist, but mostly went for Die Linke.
There’s the 1/5 AfD and 1/4 Union. Maybe the westies start to take the socio economic discrepancies between them and their eastern counterparts serious.
If you're wondering what the AfD districts in the West were: Gelsenkirchen in the north and Kaiserslautern in the south.
The most notable thing in Kaiserslautern is Ramstein air base and friends. I guess the military votes far-right.
I have no idea what's up with Gelsenkirchen. SPD came second with CDU just behind, so maybe it's what would be vote splitting in a dumber electoral system. As it is, the map is just a map.
Gelsenkirchen is a traditional working class area, which used to be secure SPD heartland. SPD has lost voters massively to AfD among workers over the years, including among the immigrant working class.
Soldiers in Germany tend to vote CDU. The last couple of years the head of the Bundestag's defense commission Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann from the FDP was super popular. In the past SPD was also really strong. These two polls on the Bundeswehr subreddit have FDP and CDU together with a supermajority. Now that's of course not representative, but gives you an idea that the military doesn't vote far right.
Really?? That doesn't seem possible, since people tend not to vote for candidates that openly hate them. Do you have a source?
Soldiers in Germany tend to vote CDU. The last couple of years the head of the Bundestag’s defense commission Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann from the FDP was super popular. In the past SPD was also really strong. These two polls on the Bundeswehr subreddit have FDP and CDU together with a supermajority.
That makes sense. CDU is (by German standards) strong on defence, even I know that.
Now that’s of course not representative, but gives you an idea that the military doesn’t vote far right.
I was reminded of the scandals relating to Wehrmacht idolisation, but I have no idea how how widespread a problem that is, so I'll defer to you.
US Military can't vote in German elections. The only voting population involved with the military would be NATO Aircom and even that German population would be small compared to the 80%+ turnout.
Lippe which includes GFM-Rommel-Kaserne voted CDU with 27%.
It looks dramatic, but afaik the old GDR states have much lower pop and density. Unless germany starts some funny business with electors and whatnot, i daresay this is not that bad of a result.
A long time ago I visited one of my parents' friends in East Germany with them, and I said something about how it was good that Germany reunified after the wall fell.
My parent's friend said, people here don't think it was a good thing. People here felt like they lost the war.
When you grow up in west Germany, you kinda never realize that the GDR was basically annexed by west Germany.
The majority of people in the GDR actually didn't want to turn capitalist, but they rather wanted another, more liberal form of socialism. Also, the Treuhand basically destroyed the east German industry which was then bought up by the West.
So, actually the "finally reunited" narrative is the one that's overly romantic, not (only) nostalgia for the GDR.
On top of that, East Germany didn't get the investment they were promised after unification. I don't think it is a coincidence that the people who didn't live under Neoliberalism 40 years ago are rejecting it today.
Interesting, indeed. Maybe it's a form of nostalgia? We still have plenty of people missing the comunists in my country, usually folk that had it better during the regime. But I never heard "we felt like we lost the war".
Shows a bit more of a positive view in the sense if your looking at this as an American and think AFD got a majority in all east Germany, they didn't, the bluest areas are 40-44% percent while most are at around the 32-36%, but they got the plurality. A bit depressing though in that all of west Germany they're taking 15-20% which this map doesn't show well
You can't display a map like this on map enthusiasts that gives a false representation of the election based on land area instead of population density and not be called out on it. It's a shit way to represent data and sows more discord than gives the proper story of what happened
Can any Germans tell me what the deal is with the Left? It looks like the only seats they're winning are in areas you'd think of as AfD areas. Is it just a matter of the poorer more overlooked areas becoming polarised? Or are the German Left kinda tankish?
Here's an interactive map so you can see the percentages better. They are only winning the eastern cities with 21-25% while in the western cities they're getting 12-15% , so it's not like there killing it in Berlin and doing nothing in hamburg. If you compare it to 2021, they've made just as much gains in the western cities as they did in the east.
I'd say it's more about the poorer areas wanting a change either with the afd or linke/bsw. Most of the tankie elements of der linke have signed onto the bsw, so pining for the good old days of the gdr isn't really their selling point anymore. Unless you were just pining for the higher social security and not the authoritarian state or russian domination, which is a lot of people in the east. This split is also part of the reason for their gains in the West as more left leaning people who are hesitant to be associated with the old school communist now have a party.
I’d say it’s more about the poorer areas wanting a change either with the afd or linke/bsw
Yeah thanks. That was sorta my initial guess, and I think it makes sense.
This split is also part of the reason for their gains in the West as more left leaning people who are hesitant to be associated with the old school communist now have a party.
Ah, that's interesting. Where do the Greens sit in this? Are they not particularly left in Germany?
Germany has proportional distribution of seats. This map doesn't show that.
Die Linke is a continuation of the ruling party of the socialist dictatorship DDR in East Germany. It's a collection of some literal old school o.g. tankies from the Socialist government, actual communists, democratic socialists, left social democrats who left the SPD, and people from social movements. In short it's a mix of people left of social democrats. In East Germany it's also a conservative party in a way for people who want the old DDR back. However it also has a strong support nowadays among the educated urban "woke" left. They reject rearmament for Germany and reject sending arms to Ukraine. Although they blame Russia for the war, they have an anti-western ideology and want to disband NATO in favor of an alliance with Russia. Kuba's foreign policy is mentioned favorably in their election agenda.
Last year prominent tankie-ish leader Sarah Wagenknecht split off the Linke to form their own party BSW. BSW is the anti-woke left, who care about social policies first, but don't put a focus on LGBT, want more strict immigration. They gained 4.9% in the election and thus narrowly missed getting seats in parliament. They blame NATO for the war in Ukraine. Exiting NATO in favor of an alliance with Russia is also on their agenda.
So the answer if they're tankies is not simple. Linke is more the useful idiot of Putin, while BSW are actual Putin bootlickers.
Is it just a matter of the poorer more overlooked areas becoming polarised?
I don't see what you mean. The Left party's tankie elements split off into the BSW a couple of years back, and the only seats the party picked up are in major urban centres that you'd usually expect to skew left. The reason most of them are in the East is probably historical.
What I mean is that they're in Leipzig and East Berlin, not Hamburg or Frankfurt or Munich, or even West Berlin. So I was wondering why it would be that they only seem to be having success in former East Germany, which is very similar to AfD. I was wondering if any Germans had an understanding of why that might be, and perhaps if there are lessons that leftist parties elsewhere could take from that.
Not a German, but I'll try to answer:
The Left = Die Linke = commies, that have in the past been supportive of authoritarians like Chavez, Maduro, Putin, ... So kinda tankies yes.
Spd = social democratic party of Germany. The actual moderate left party. Many consider them to have moved too much to the right economically, which has opened room for Die Linke to grow. Especially Schröder was a disaster when he was chancellor around 25 years ago (+ afterwards as well when he became a stooge for Putin). The exiting chancellor & leader of exiting coalition government is also from SPD. Apart from their ridiculous levels of support for Israel, I can't think of any stand out bad things that they did. An actual German will have to fill us in on that.
Die Linke are not even close to tankies. There certainly are some in the mix, just like we have them here, but equating Linke to tankies is quite disingenuous
It's however possible that the conservatives will run the Austrian playbook. Talks with the social democrats fail, "we have a responsibility to Germany to form a government", then make a coalition with the AfD (Nazis).
Back to your original question: the BSW will likely contest the elections, as they have missed the 5% threshold by only ~14k votes and there are evident irregularities. For example, many Germans living abroad, for example those living in the US, had almost no chance to cast their vote.
Very unlikely. A coalition with the AfD is rejected by 85% of CDU voters. Merz has many times unequivocally rejected a coalition with the AfD.
there are evident irregularities
The only irregularity is voters abroad having received their mail in ballots too late. That was caused by the short timeframe to prepare the early elections. If that qualifies as a problem will be decided by the courts.
Election denial is less scary if they only have 20% support. If they tried it I imagine the vote to ban them would come back and maybe get enough support this time.
It does not. This is just a geographic breakdown, and in reality baby blue (AfD) got just 1/5 of the vote and seats (because former East Germany is less populous).