The fact that 90% of people don't give a shit about ads, privacy or their operating system in general. They want a machine to open a browser, that's it. If Windows comes pre-installed, they'll use Windows.
The only realistic chance we've got is that MS shoots itself in the foot once more by all that Recall crap and businesses drop Windows. But that's a long shot.
I find most people don't know of the alternatives but they are open to change as they are unhappy with current options that they are aware of. I've talked with a few people that were surprisingly open to to trying Linux. They didn't know how easy it is to use and install but jumped on the opportunity as they were unhappy with Windows.
Until something breaks, or doesn't have a GUI. The average user seeing a terminal means they will abandon it. And even if they are willing to handle a terminal to fix an issue, the toxic community members that flock to be the first to respond condescendingly to new users will turn them away permanently.
Linux communities have some of the most helpful users, but they also have people worse than a League of Legends game. And all it takes is one of them to turn the average person away forever.
... And then something happens and they want you to install Windows again.
As much as I like Linux, compared to Windows and Mac OS it's high maintenance. Once in a while, things will bork themselves. And you need to have at least a rough understanding of what's happening to fix it.
Also (and that's not a Linux problem per se) people seem to think if Windows breaks, MS or they themselves are at fault, if Linux breaks, that weird nerd and his hacker stuff are at fault.
I have to disagree, at least in my experience.
Windows causes more problems, both for my mum and myself.
Her only purpose of a PC is basically to open a web browser, answer some mails and plug in a USB from time to time. For her, Mint never made one single problem, except when the hard drive failed.
She really liked the "boringness" and the old Windows charme.
And for me, Linux never made any big troubles in general. When I used Tumbleweed, there were a few papercuts (e.g. graphical glitches, program freezes, etc.) due to the bleeding edge, but nothing major.
And since I use Fedora Atomic, I completely forget that I use an OS in general. I never have to update anything, I can't break my stuff, etc..
It's the most "boring" and user friendly OS I've used, even more than MacOS and Windows. Only Android/ iOS are better in that regard.
But I've never seen my OS just borking itself. If that should ever happen, I can easily roll back in a second and it will work again.
And you need to have at least a rough understanding of what's happening to fix it.
If you can fix Windows (which made way more problems after updates for me) then fixing Linux is way easier. And if you're an average person, then you go to a local repair shop and say "My PC broke" and they reinstall Windows for you.
Without fail, every Linux installation I had destroyed itself after a while.
Be it a full boot partition, some weird driver compatibility, etc, etc.
My Windows installations (granted, all work laptops) never destroyed themselves. Yes, some bugs here and there, but it worked well enough for home usage. You can't discount that.
Okay, but understand that from for example my point of view, your perception appears really skewed because my GNU/Linux installations have never "destroyed [themselves] after a while". Respectfully, I think that you project your Linux failures unto the entire ecosystem, based on issues that were unique to you.
I've got the complete opposite to you. I'm in a household of 3 gaming desktops and 3 laptops, plus family who need help. I've been daily driving Linux for about a decade now and keep duel boot around just for Adobe products.
On all these machines, Linux hs been rock solid and never had issues that wasn't user caused. Windows on the other hand drives me crazy with how much it fucks out. I have next to no control over it. It updates when it wants. I have no control over what's updated. I hate the gods damn ads (and that's on Windows 10) despite running de-crappifying software. I hate how many errors it has and how long it takes t troubleshoot them. I hate that if the system borks itself enough, it's faster and less insanity inducing to just reinstall the whole os than try and fix it. I hate that Windows just gets progressively slower and laggier over time whereas my 6 year running Arch install was as fast as the day I installed it.
Businesses that already use Windows with all of the heavily integrated business-related stuff from Microsoft (AD, Exchange, SharePoint, Teams, Outlook, etc.) won't change that just because a feature that most likely can be disabled via GPO.
It's true. I only use applications. The OS is a thing in the background that needs to get setup fast so I click an application and now I'm using my computer. I spend more time in my BIOS than I do the back of my OS.
Whichever OS does that best will always be the most popular.
Yes, but there are things that absolutely drove be crazy in Windows. When you switch to Korean, it would default to Latin characters, and you have to switch to Korean characters. Which is fine if you always use the Korean layout and just toggle between Latin and Korean characters, like most Koreans.
But I am actually learning Korean and I speak more than one other language. When I switch to Chinese I expect it to type in Chinese. When I switch to Korean, I expect it to type in Korean.
The most bullshit thing about Windows is if the default behavior doesn't suit you, there's no way to change it. You're stuck with how Windows works because it's batteries included.