Wagner Group captures headquarters of the Southern Military District and the building of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Rostov, the headquarters of Russia's base of operations for War in Ukraine
The Wagnerites also seized the buildings of the head office of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the FSB department, the administration of #Rostov and one of the police departments, according to local channels. Nobody in the city understands what's going on.
Rostov is the admin centre of Rostov Oblast (state capital city). I would assume the main offices are in Moscow and these are the regional headquarters.
So while it is big if they have taken them it is not as big as if they had done so in Moscow.
Nobody knew what was going on in 1968 czechoslovakia as well, when the russians came with the tanks. I don't really wish them any harm, but I'm glad they can experience the same confusion now. May this experience serve as a warning.
Wagner has been pretty careful to call out everyone but Putin.
Feels like setting the stage for a claim that the war was orchestrated by rogue elements in the Russian military, giving an out to tuck tail and run and move toward easing sanctions.
Nah, this feels more like an "evil counsellors" situation - you don't want to take on the king directly, so you instead give him an out by saying that he's OK but he's been given bad advice. Which also means if you do take over you can keep him around as a figurehead who now listens to better advisers like yourself.
Wagner has been pretty careful to call out everyone but Putin.
Feels like setting the stage for a claim that the war was orchestrated by rogue elements in the Russian military, giving an out to tuck tail and run and move toward easing sanctions.
It won't terrify Putin. It all goes according to the plan. Different forces are fighting between themselves to show who's more loyal to Putin, those who are not loyal enough are either falling out of windows or being killed on the battlefield. And those who are loyal are getting ludicrously rich. The amount of billionaires in Russia has increased fivefold during the first year of the war.
Army generals got too corrupt and too complacent since their success in Crimea in 2014, this war is a tool to put them into place and Prigozhin talks a lot so that Putin can put generals' noses into their shit to teach them a lesson or two while the public fully supports this. Prigozhin gets his piece of the pie in the process.
Everyone tries to control the narrative, this is completely normal. Anti-terrorist operation, peacekeeping mission, special military operation, march for X. I don't remember someone who just said "yep, we are invading X".
In this case both Prigozhin and Putin (or the establishment) are trying to control the narrative to gather support from "patriots". Saying you are making a coup sounds antigonizing, while saying you are marching for justice, because it's the government who has betrayed the people does not.
My personal theory is that he never intended it to get this far (previously he never called out Putin directly), but a failed assassination attempt made him decided he has no choice.
I think this is a good time to continue what they've been doing, interfering with Russian logistics and pressing forward on the front lines.
They could make an attack on Russian territory (e.g. drone strikes against airbases, oilfields, bridges, or other suitable targets), but right now might be the right time to hold off on anything that might distract Russia and Wagner from fighting with each other. Nothing unifies squabbling factions quite like a serious external threat.
I wouldn't be surprised, though, if Ukraine ops to antagonize Russia as much as they can, while leaving Wagner mostly alone. That would also be a sensible strategy.
To be honest I thought Wagner and also the Chechen commanded forces would cause chaos in Russia after the war - Putin unleashed the genies from their bottles in his desperation. Both see themselves as successors to Putin should he fall, and civil war was on the cards but more likely a conflict between Wagner and the Chechen forces of some form. I agree - moving DURING the war with Ukraine - that is totally unexpected!
But they've not switched sides tbf - this seems to be the first steps in a civil war. And it shows just how broken Russia is. The question is, will Wagner step back from the precipice after exacting some sort of price out of the Russian state? Or is this a battle for survival and so unstoppable.
The really really worrying this is when things get unpredictable like this, there is no telling how things could escalate further. Look at WW1 - the death of Franz Ferdinand helped unleash chaos in a way no one could have forseen.
It actually is much worse than it seems - I did a write up over on Mastodon to explain why and how (https://mastodon.social/@andrei_chiffa/110599724720727202). The TLDR is that cities taken by Wagner mercs will be hard to retake without leveling, all internal protection troops are either tied or were lost in Ukraine, and mercs themselves have nothing to loose and all the revenge to take.
It's very strange how things are going right now. The fact that they are quite effortlessly moving hundreds of kilometers through Russian territory is quite telling.
How many do they have not in Ukraine... Who are also willing to kill fellow Russians? If the average Russian military sentiment is, "Eh, let them through" this could be huge.
Plus a lot of the "Royal Guard" may be well-connected rich kids who are even less inclined to fight.
People are tired of this war. Putin wanted to secure food reserves and have an open access sea port for his military; however he wasn't honest as to his reasons why; understandably so. Given this the Russian public doesn't see the actual geopolitical value of the conflict. This was inevitable. If Russia couldn't play nice with the rest of the world as their money mostly comes from oil and gas; which we are moving away from. Let them pay for their crimes.
Everyone in Wagner was about to be conscripted into the regular Russian Army as the latest in an ongoing power struggle between Wagner's boss and the Russian MoD. So to avoid losing his private army, the boss has stepped up the power struggle to an attempted coup, basically.
The head of Wagner was unhappy with Russian military leaders and thought he'd take matters into his own hands as Putin was going to support him. Putin did not. Now there are 10,000 men heading to Moscow.
While it’s always great to watch enemies turning against each other (Boebert vs MTG!), let‘s not forget that Putin is a mad man with his finger on a nuclear button.
I wish the best for the people living there who will suffer the consequences of a dictator who gets pushed into a corner.
If there's one thing I've learned from my history classes it's that power vacuums (or even perceived power vacuums) and the ensuing instability always end well for everyone involved....
This became a possibility the moment Prigo started making threats towards government officials. As soon as that happened, and Russia did not recall and disband the group, a rebellion became an eventuality (what mercenary is going to accept execution from a state he is propping up).
I doubt it'll be successful, but it is a huge blow to Russia.
The rebellion has started. Let's hope they win. Wagner group aren't great people, but Putin is worse for giving the orders and calling the shots against so many innocent lives.
Yeah, I wanted Putin to go, but this might be a "be careful what you wish for" thing.
They should just be a nice mixed economy low corruption actual democracy (a super scandi) and the russian people free and happy goddamit.
If they would merely keep Rostov, a city with one million citizens, this would already be an enormous problem for Russia. But the Wagner group is going all-out, and I strongly doubt whether they'll be able to oust the Russian government.
The Wagner Group, is a Russian paramilitary organization. It is seen as a private military company (PMC), a network of mercenaries, or a de facto private army of Russian President Vladimir Putin's former close ally Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The group operates beyond the law in Russia, where private military companies are officially forbidden. Because it operates in support of Russian interests, it receives equipment from the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) and uses MoD installations for training, the Wagner Group is said to be a de facto unit of the MoD or Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU.
While the Wagner Group itself is not ideologically driven, various elements of Wagner have been linked to neo-Nazism and far-right extremism.
They already control a city with one million inhabitants, with one of the five military headquarters of the Russian military. I wouldn't call this a "small rebellion" yet.
They're a 50000-person-strong PMC. No way can they take on the full might of the Russian military unless you see huge swathes of the military join their rebellion.