It should be reasonably trivial to programmatically watch the frames; original programming will have mastered audio levels and set video compression; any shift to an ad should stand out like a sore thumb.
So as long as things aren’t locked down to a DRM’d player, it should be possible to fingerprint the audio and video stream content and drop any inserted frames that don’t match.
If YouTube decides to mangle the original content to fight back… then maybe that’s finally the impetus people will need to switch platforms.
You wouldn't neccesarily need to pay attention to the master and all, probably easier to request the video twice from youtube, detect the bits that don't change, skip timestamps around to only play those bits. Might have a bit of a failure rate if the same ad is served twice, and youtube could fight back by letting creators make slightly different video versions but still better than nothing.
If YouTube decides to mangle the original content to fight back… then maybe that’s finally the impetus people will need to switch platforms.
Switch to where? Everything that's not just a different youtube frontend is either shit or doesn't pay the creators. Federated FOSS sites aren't an option either cause once an influx of users outside the tech bubble happens, the server capacity will hit ground bottom.
The way the foss sites work is basically like torrents though so it has the whole "the more people that watch a video, the faster it becomes for everyone" effect. The primary upside is that each site serves as a guaranteed seeder.
It'll get beaten. SmartTube already detects and skips people saying "Don't forget to like and subscribe" and obviously any paid promotion sections. At this rate a 10 min video's going to be sliced down to 2 and I'll be none the wiser.
Even embedded ads will always be detectable because they always stick out. Be it audio, video, frame timing or the simple fact that an ad is always the same. They'd need to random generate dynamic AI ads and I don't think we're there yet, nor would most companies accept the possible public outrage when the AI content has a glitch or a different dynamic than what the marketing had in mind.
If youtu.be premium is actually ad free (and I can still run sponsor block) I can see paying for it. I get a lot of value out of it and can't really justify doing a lot of work to avoid paying.