The European automotive industry is striving to adapt to market changes driven by the dual green and digital transition.
Instead of just electrifying vehicles, cities should be investing in alternative methods of transportation. This article is by the Scientific Foresight Unit of the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), a EU's own think tank.
Hopefully some of the people sitting in parliament will read this. In many cities we still have to fight for bicycle infrastructure. Car centric city designs should really start going out of fashion
The worst is when they install bike infrastructure that will just randomly end and dump you onto a busy street, and then complain no one is using the fancy new bike lanes...
Have some of these here. Absolutely wild, that the bike lane ends where it would become useful: Before a traffic light, so that you have to take part in the traffic jam of cars.
But what am I even talking about. Traffic lights per se are an anti-pattern of city design.
Oh yea, here they painted the gutter red and called it a day. One such red gutter directs you right into a busy 6 way intersection and just ends there, it's unofficially called the suicide lane.
Well obviously you can't put bike infrastructure in places with high traffic. There is too much traffic and all that traffic stuck in traffic it is better if it's stuck in 2 lanes or 3. Bike lanes work on quiet roads and out in the countryside. But in cities it would mean that the bikes go much faster than cars which doesn't make any sense because cars go faster than bikes.
It's just a waste of money. What is need is road widening. Or you know where that metro line is that doesn't connect to the other metro line. If we dig a tunnel between those lines we will have a super fast and efficient way to transfer cars from the traffic on one side of the city to the traffic on the other side.
Only thing is that electrifying vehicles is a little easier than rebuilding a city (or part of it). And it don't need to be a really old part, even a 60/70 years old city zone is relatively hard to convert. Not to speak of even older zones.
But yes, newly build zone of city should be designed with this in mind.
In my (over 1,000 year old) city, blocking several streets with bollards and massively reducing street parking worked just fine so far. As did curbing traffic coming in, with longer "red" phases at traffic lights for cars entering, when sensors detect too many cars in the city.
Is it easier or is it just shifting the cost? We're talking thousands of cars needing electrification in any given city, at let's say they get it to an average of $35k each.
Picking a random city, let's say Cincinnati. They already have some infrastructure but it's largely car dependent. They have 148k households, of which 44.1% have one car, 25.2% have two, 6.8% have three, and 2.4% have four. So roughly 65k + 75k + 30k + 14k = 184k cars * 35k each or minimum 6.4 billion to electrify them all.
I don't know how much good public transit costs, but I have to imagine $6.4b can buy a fair amount of it.
78% of microplastics in the ocean come from car tires. EVs are heavier, and produce more microplastics. 10-20 bikes can fit in one car parking space. Bicycles and trains are hundreds of times more efficient than cars in terms of energy and space... And bike crashes don't kill over a million people per year globally.
It's kind of obvious. We can have a future worth living in, or we can have cars, but we can't have both.
What happens with bikes when it rains, or there is a heat wave, or intense cold? I assume these are solved problems where bike culture is common but haven't seen much discussion about it.
Biking is as common in the Netherlands as high winds and rain. I ride in the rain all the time. You wear a jacket. Same with cold, except you wear a bigger jacket. Biking in the snow is common in Finland. I've biked in freezing rain. It's not always super pleasant, but is a small amount of discomfort really worth destroying our cities and our planet to prevent?
I don't have a great answer for heat since it's not something we deal with here (as much). Cycling requires less energy than walking, so if you're not biking hard you can keep as cool or cooler than walking. Where mass transit exists, use that if you really need to get around... And, honestly, you should generally stay inside during dangerous heat anyway.
Kids, pets, and elderly folks regularly die in cars during normal summers. Things are only going to get hotter and we're going to need to adapt our culture around that.
Bicycles and trains are hundreds of times more efficient than cars in terms of energy and space…
A fast train like TGV, ICE or Shinkansen needs 10 kWh per passenger per 100 km. This includes infrastructure like heated railway switches, train stations, etc.
This is not much more energy efficient than an electric car.
And bike crashes don’t kill over a million people per year globally.
Compare the passenger-kilometers done by car and by bike.
Those trains are not comparable to cars, they're comparable to airplanes. The metros and light rails that are intended to replace cars are overwhelmingly more efficient per potential passenger. Comparing a vehicle that is usually run near capacity with a vehicle that almost never has more than one passenger is obtuseness almost to the point of deception.
Bikes don't replace cars. Bikes+trains replace cars. For comparable miles traveled, cars are insanely dangerous. It is utterly unhinged to argue that bikes and cars are equally safe but for the miles traveled, especially as higher bumper heights and decreased visibility are driving pedestrian deaths from cars through the roof.
And none of these touch the fact that cars simply don't fit in cities. You also completely ignored the literal tons of carcinogenic and heavy metal laden microplastics from tires that end up in our oceans. Every human being carrying around multiple tons of metal with them can't possibly be efficient. Large heavy machinery constantly interacting with soft swishy humans can't possibly ever be safe.
Arguing otherwise requires either an epic level of car brain worm or a pay check from the auto industry. I don't know which is worse: people desperately trying to ignore obviously reality, or people willing to sell out their fellow humans and even their future for a few more years of something that was never a good idea to begin with.
Trains reduce road traffic so much that normal lane road is enough, when without trains a city needs multiple laned roads that jam up regularly regardless how many lanes there are. Train systems get more efficient and waiting times smaller when more people use them. The opposite with car based transit systems
Yeah where did you get these energy numbers for the train? But you can use regenerative energy surces and since train wheels are mostly made of metal there is almost no microplastic produced.
I dont think you can kill as many people with bikes than you can with a car.
Isaac Asimov decades ago imagined a future where nuclear plants provided infinite clean energy, and still people in his cities moved on foot, on large systems of conveyors.
The conveyors imagined by Asimov and Heinlein have got to be the dumbest things they ever thought of. I love those guys and generally they had interesting ideas but this one... wow.
In Paris Montparnasse just after 2000, they had a speed conveyor, like at the airport but accelerating up to (IIRC) 11km/h (and decelerating at the end ofc). Wild times!
They lowered the speed as I guess too many people fell. It wasn't really intuitive as the handrail didn't accelerate at the same way so you had nothing to hold onto. I don't know what happened with the project.
It was called the TGV, Tapis Grand Vitesse mimicking the TGV for Train Grand Vitesse (the French speed trains acronym).
I mean, I don't think conveyors are a good solution, but it's telling that someone so long ago already rejected cars as a viable transportation method.
In Paris Montparnasse they had a speed conveyor, like at the airport but accelerating up to (IIRC) 11km/h (and decelerating at the end ofc). Wild times!
They lowered the speed as I guess too many people fell. It wasn't really intuitive as the handrail didn't accelerate at the same way so you had nothing to hold onto.
A recent study found that a single unmuffled scooter driving through Paris at 3am can wake up 10,000 people.
So sure, scooters have low CO₂ emission but I would like to see a ban on non-electric scooters for their sound emissions, at least during certain hours.
The European Union should push electric motor scooters and allow them 55 km/h (kph). Gas-driven motor scooters are only allowed 45 km/h. They should be discouraged by higher taxes as they are in Asia.
And what, only wake up 8,000 people instead? I’ve never heard an unmuffled one, but those little 50 cc fuckers are screaming loud in the high pitch frequencies - a perfect recipe for wakefulness. I often wake up when one of those assholes drives within a block of me at night. It doesn’t even have to traverse my street.
Even if it wakes 5,000 people, who then take 1 hr on avg to return to sleep, 5,000 man hours per scooter per day of lost sleep has to have a measurable loss of productivity and even quality of life.
The related fun fact to that would be that high-pitched sounds are more annoying and perceived to be louder than low frequency sounds with the same db.
I’m sure my sleep is more disrupted living in a city with an occasional 2-stroke engine screaming by than it would be if I lived next to a highway with that relatively constant and relatively distant ambient tire noise.
The scooters they mention in the article are the e-scooters you ride standing up in the bike lane. Not mopeds.
I also think mopeds are a good replacement to cars, much more appropriate for 1-2 people in urban areas. But it needs to be the quieter models. The two-stroke-engine ones are just really too loud for a city. (and they burn motor oil as well as gas)
The scooters they mention in the article are the e-scooters you ride standing up in the bike lane.
No they are not. That makes no sense. Stand-up e-scooters are relatively quiet. Quotes from the article (emphasis added):
“worst of all, the high-pitched wail of motor scooters that speed by every few seconds.”
“Motorcycles and scooters — often with their exhaust systems illegally modified to boost noise and power”
“The noise can be ear-splitting,”
Obviously you would not describe a stand-up scooter as ear-splitting or capable of waking someone up. They’re talking about gas small gas combustion engines, most of which are the worst variety on scooters: 2-stroke.
Or if you meant the OP’s article is talking about e-scooters, that article actually covered both:
“Weight rates are usually over 10 times more favourable for the average motorbike or scooter and, of course, even better for lighter vehicles such as electric bicycles or kick-scooters.”
My reaction was to the idea that motor scooters are more favorable by a factor of 10 due to the weight -- which is true, but my criteria is more complex than just ecocide-avoidance… I want my sleep too!
I have wondered about the impact of all these massive cars. It's interesting that they impact both traffic and energy, although obvious if you think about it.
The high level of European industry specialisation in producing high quality ICEs accounts for its leading position in the market. However, electric vehicles do not require the same level of know-how, opening the door to other players. China became the top global car exporter in 2023, exporting mostly to Europe and Asia.
Okay, fine. But so what? There is no way that the world is going to continue to use ICEs in the long run. You could say "German auto manufacturers have a comfortable, entrenched position, so we want to defer transition away from ICEs for a year", but you're not going to hold things there.
The EU automotive sector has traditionally excelled at producing vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEs). The sector accounts for around 8 % of the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP) and for 12.9 million direct and indirect jobs. However, the green transition, digitalisation and global competition have fundamentally altered its business model.
Yeah, technology changes over time.
Promoting electric cars may lead to market distortions that run counter to European industrial interests. While complementary measures such as those contemplated in the critical raw materials act take effect, and besides the obvious move towards public transport, one way to allow the EU car industry to adapt while still reducing CO2 emissions could be to limit the size, weight and engine capacity of urban vehicles.
Learn to make electric vehicles, Germany. If you want to ban outside competition to the European market, then straight-up ban outside competition to the European market. Sitting on ICEs has to be the most ridiculous way to do industrial protectionism one can imagine.
You knew that this was coming down the road for ages. Every industry needs to deal with technological change, whether it's farmers shifting from oxen to tractors or the post office dealing with the shift to telecommunications or farriers dealing with the shift from horses to cars.
China also dominates production of almost every raw material, technology and component used to make electric vehicles.
That's not because China is mining everything, but because it's dominant in processing. If you want to bone up on processing, go for it. Germany's had a history in the chemical industry too. BASF is the largest chemical company in the world today.
The dependency is also unnerving German and other European car manufacturers, whose home markets are now threatened by good-quality Chinese cars and China’s control of the processing of lithium.
Concern is so great that the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, has launched an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese imports, amid fears that big manufacturers including Volkswagen and BMW will have trouble matching the supply of electric cars from China.
But lithium does not, in the main, come from China, so how has Beijing achieved such a commanding position? Was Europe asleep at the wheel?
Lithium supplies are dominated by five countries, with the bulk of the mineral mined in Australia and Chile, but it is China that has taken the raw material and become the dominant supplier of refined lithium.
“They are now the global hub. This gives them economic leverage – or, to put it more bluntly, the means of economic coercion,” says one EU source.
Hell, even if it were mining, Germany has far higher known per-capita lithium reserves than China does; just isn't mining it.