"The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on. Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Don't you guys love how 70% of the country just doesn't matter because everyone already knows what they'll be. So we get to only focus on a few of the most fucked ones to decide the election.
I love the Electoral College, I love FPTP voting, I hate popular votes. This is okay. We're gonna be okay. Everything is okay. Somebody please tell me it's going to be okay.
some polls say he's losing some key swing states...
but also, i once worked at a call center that conducted political polls... in my own experience, they're total bullshit and normal, average, representative of the population people are not participating in these polls at all....
I think Swift's main demographic is actually in the bracket 16-25 so plenty of voters there. The younger teens are, generally, into more fresh/new acts and stuff with more of an edge. Swift has been around for a long time now.
Reminder that national polls are useless because the United States doesn't have national elections. There are 50 individual state elections, plus Washington D.C., which establish 535 Electoral College votes, 270 to win.
States like Washington, Oregon, California are going to Biden, no contest.
States like Texas, Louisiana, Alabama are going to Trump, no contest.
The election will be decided by the toss-up states. Unless the poll is talking about one of these states it can be safely ignored.
This is a change from the last time I posted this where Trump won, 278 to 260. Michigan and Pennsylvania are both now polling for Trump instead of Biden.
Previously, Biden needed to pick up +10.
Now he needs to pick up +44 which is a much, much, steeper ask...
These polls are useless too, without knowing who was surveyed (online, landlines, etc.). Also, polls this far from the election are just useless in general. Democrats are going to say they don't like Biden until it comes time to vote.
Most people remember the daily idiocy of the last time that smelly fatass was president. It's not a surprise. Democrats are going to come out and vote against Trump like they did before. They just don't care about answering polls to say they like Biden.
The same thing happened in 2020. Trump had a ton of rallies and Biden had none. Biden still kicked Trump's ass despite not being "popular".
Do they only poll via phone calls? I'm not a dinosaur, so Google Voice screens anybody not in contacts by asking their name. This defeats most robodialers, and having done a couple jobs which included political polls, you only get the call and poll script on your screen once the robodialer has confirmed it didn't reach a voicemail.
You'd get random campaigns based on what numbers were in the robodialer for the timezones it picked. You could be talking to some old guy who was lonely and wanted nothing more than a detailed talk about Ford trucks in between your questions about Ford's latest models, and the next call be questions such as, "if X candidate were to take a stronger position against giving free lunch to school kids, would the chance you vote for them increase, decrease, or stay the same?"
I did not last long at either job as it is soulkilling work
"Muslim Americans said they did not expect Trump to treat their community any better if reelected but saw denying Biden votes their only means to shape U.S. policy.
A recent poll showed Biden's support among Arab Americans has plunged from a comfortable majority in 2020 to 17%."
Thank you to Republican primary voters for making sure our mediocre candidate can't lose, go collect your prize of... I don't know, bank statements showing how much money you've thrown at the orange shit gibbon over the years and some stupid looking hats?
Also interesting to note that the this same poll has Haley beating Biden by 5 points if Trump is not on the ballot and Haley is the Republican nominee .
However, put Biden and Haley on a larger ballot with RFK Jr and the other nobodies running on 3rd party tickets, and Biden ends up winning again.
There is also zero chance Trump doesn't run. Either he's the nominee or he runs third-party and splits the vote. His ego (and legal trouble) simply won't allow him to sit this one out.
If Trump is not the nominee, or if he is judicially removed from the ballot, then he will still run as a write-in candidate.
And even if he doesn't run a write-in campaign, plenty of his supporters will write him in anyway
And even if he would get struck by lightning and pass away prior to November, his supporters would likely just write in Don Jr or Vivek or someone similar.
Under no circumstances is Nikki Haley ever getting even 80% of Trump supporters to vote for her in November. And if she can't get that, then there is no way she can beat Biden. A Nikki Haley victory in 2024 is not plausible
or if he is judicially removed from the ballot, then he will still run as a write-in candidate.
He's being removed from the ballot in states because they consider him ineligible to be president. That's not something that gets solved by a write-in.
It's far easier to break things than maintain or build upon them. Always has been the case and always will. Such is entropy.
I confess Biden wasn't even my third choice in the 2020 primaries. But I voted for him anyway, and I'll vote for him again. Because, truly: democracy, equality, justice, truth, and the planet itself is on the line.