Apart from the few subs that remain offline, it'll basically be back to normal. Those that do remain offline indefinitely just get forcibly reopened or recreated by admins, especially huge subreddits like /r/videos. Smaller ones just get redicted to /r/topicnew or some other creative name.
A lot of subreddits and more importantly moderators and users leave the site permanently. In order for this to happen however, there'd have to be a consensus alternative, which there isn't ATM. Otherwise, these communities are pretty much lost forever unless the mods put a message to go to X alternative service in the "subreddit is private" banner. Tbh, I don't think people are gonna stomach losing years of their lives in an instant so they'll just re create subreddits unless the mods provide an alternative.
No matter what though, they're not backing down on the effective removal of the API (still leaving the sneaky clause "you can pay us if you want but it'll be a king's ransom" for AI, even though they can just trawl the web manually lol). They'll probably announce some crappy customization features to hoodwink those who don't know what an API is and lie to them and say it's "API v2" or whatever.
I just honestly don't know how it's going to shake out and I'm scared im going to lose these communities. I don't give a single solitary fuck about Reddit the company anymore, and I never did really. I just hope all of the subreddits find a new home and don't just shrug their shoulders and say "welp, guess that's it guys".
Squabbles seems to have not hit user critical mass. Tildes looks like it's doing well.
The Lemmy + Kbin fediverse seems to be taking off like a rocket and has the best overall chance IMO of becoming the home for the best parts of Reddit's community.
Isn't this developed by one person, isn't open source and forbids NSFW in general? That is never going to go well.
Tildes
No mobile app and no ActivityPub so it's a very specialised. Additionally I don't like the UI at all and I've read this in multiple threads here as well.
Lemmy + Kbin
Both are show the same content as they are federated so it's up to who prefers what really. I prefer Lemmy, but anything is fine.
re Tildes: yes, also hard agree. The invitation-only method of growing the community also is draconian and it's going to hit all the scaling problems a traditional site does.
These and others are why you're finding me with you here in the fediverse. I am with you mi beratna.
I reckon a lot of the platforms popping up with closed ecosystems will stagnate after a while. ActivityPub is brilliant and I hope more platforms adopt it!
Funny enough, I've seen people assume Lemmy also forbids NSFW. I think they just never found lemmynsfw.com, which is basically the access point to the porniverse (you're welcome btw if you found it here).
There was also the thing with Beehaw banning that one other instance with Loli, which might have been seen by some who hadn't even thought of NSFW content at all as "oh, porn not okay then".
I want to add, that my wife has been a "scab" throughout all this and has been active on reddit, trying to show me memes and such.
The content she's been showing me has been stale, old stuff I saw back in 2020. Same recycled jokes, same memes. Reddit is in a mode of hard cope right now and I doubt it gets better if we don't return.
My wife was on Reddit for about 9 years when she got hooked on TikTok about a year ago. In her words, Reddit had become boring. She still checks the local community sub, but that is about it. Just worth pointing out that Reddit is facing pressure from two ends. A lot of the more casual users, and the popular content creators, are on TikTok and other video centric platforms. Reddit can't compete there, as much as they try. The dedicated users they did have, those interested in community and discussion, well Reddit just angered much of that group.
Prior to the blackout, I was angry with Reddit. Since the blackout I've taken a step back and realized how much garbage Reddit is filled with (ads, shitposts, promoted content, etc), and how much I want to find something better. Before the blackout I was planning to quit Reddit out of anger. Now I plan to quit because, as my wife said, Reddit is boring and I'm excited to explore what comes next.
I want to add, that my wife has been a “scab” throughout all this and has been active on reddit, trying to show me memes and such.
Seems like grounds for a divorce.
I kid of course! My girlfriend is staying off Reddit, but she’s definitely missing it and hasn’t found a good substitute for her mix of subreddits yet. It’s especially rough since twitter’s gone downhill, and that was her other main scrollable content.
While I’m enjoying my time here and I’m honestly shocked with the amount of engagement so far, I just don’t see the “fedaverse” ever gaining any mainstream traction. It’s unintuitive and the barrier of entry is way too high. Even googling “Lemmy” doesn’t bring up useful results.
Something like squabbles has a better chance for mainstream appeal, but it would need a miracle as it’s only one duder
Even googling “Lemmy” doesn’t bring up useful results.
It's not helped by the fact that it has the same name as a famous musician. Googling for Lemmy just brings him up — the Fediverse doesn't show up unless you scroll down a ways, if it even shows on the front page at all. Same with Tildes and Squabbles, both being already existing words. Branding is important for recognizability, and "Reddit" has the advantage of being a unique name.
I'd rather it not have a big mainstream appeal.. feels like every time I start to get into something the normies show up and start ruining it. So far I've been enjoying what I see here and am interested to see what happens.
I think that's a good thing. I like what I'm seeing NOW as in the communities and interactions. I'm afraid to see what would happen if lemmy became a popular as reddit. But we will see and hope for the best.
I fully agree with you that it's unintuitive and the barrier to entry. I consider myself pretty technical, and it took hours to figure out enough about how it works, what I need to worry about, etc. And I still have major unanswered questions about how moderating works with federation.
Contrast that to (almost) all other monolithic social media. The steps to get started are to go to their main site, click the link at the top to sign up, follow the simple prompts, then find people or communities to engage with.
Digg still exists, so I have no doubt that reddit will continue to have its rotting corpse propped up and picked at, even after a lot of its biggest contributors have left the site
It will. I've been on Reddit 16+ years and I have no itch to return or reopen the app. Meanwhile I'm getting nothing done for work because I have Mastodon, kbin, and lemmy open. The sticky/addictive power is here already.
Ooof yes! The "lemmy post" mantra is really sticking for me and it has being and simple to do that here , scary but like accelerating. Never dared to participate on reddit and now here is so fun to so. Only in time we will now how thing pan out but here , in lemmy, is fun.
Hope to see you guys around.
I'm voting for #1. Even the subs that remain offline will be replaced.
But there's a caveat-- I think Reddit will start to suck more quickly than it has, and, without some core mods and content providers, will become pretty much a shell of itself in a few years. Maybe it's before it's public; maybe it's after.
Yeah if the whole Netflix thing has taught us anything it's that people don't want to change and will put up with being treated like absolute garbage to remain in their comfortable space. Reddit will be fine. But I do hope enough people leave and stay here to start a new thriving community long term.
I think you're wildly overestimating that timetable - over on that site I'm a member of a sub where you need intimate knowledge of the subject to moderate it effectively (and because of the nature of the subject it gets a lot of trolls to put it mildly). With no community mods that sub would become a cesspit within days, as would subs that are currently the focus of the alt-right, such as science, LGBT subs etc. It's going to be a bin fire if the community mods leave - you'll feel so dirty you'll have to take a shower after every visit to your previously favourite subs...
I was also a mod over there (recreated the same community here, but it'll take time to fill in if it ever does). In that sub, despite well over a million subscribers, less than 200 people wrote the valuable comments. If a sizable chunk of those 200 leave, then the sub dies. And several wrote to modmail about the fact that the sub did not participate in the blackout and that they were done with the sub (and frankly, I don't blame them, I'm also out).
A million members doesn't matter if the couple hundred experts pack up and leave.
Hard agree. A few years back I was a member of a local subreddit that only had one mod. It was small enough that they were able to keep up with spam/moderating. Then one day it started getting brigaded by one of the racist subreddits. One of the many ones that had an unrepeatable name (variant on a racial slur) that’s since been banned.
We later found out that sole mod had gone camping for a few days, so there was no one to remove all the explicit racism and ban people. They immediately cleaned up and notified admins when they got back, but I can see how quickly a community can turn awful if you don’t have dedicated mods.
You’re talking as if mods are hard to find. Everybody on Reddit knows how mods powertrip, and if given an option many more will fight to fill those positions.
It will be no problem at all to find mods, what will be hard is finding good mods. You'll have a lot of people who have 0 experience or are just genuine assholes moderating
I’m honestly done with Reddit and I really hope enough people find a new home outside of it when this is all said and done. Hanging out on here has made me realize how toxic and mentally draining Reddit actually is.
I think Reddit will continue to grow into a normie cesspool of children and mentality I’ll folks and will eventually go the way of FB and Twitter where the interesting and saine folks will dig out new communities in some other place to be determined
I couldn’t agree more with your opinion on Reddit. Over the past 10 years it has become so much more toxic and unwelcoming. It is hivemind culture and it is only going to get worse over time. The reporting on the Boston bombings should have been writing on the walls and that was a good while ago. Looking at it now, I just can’t believe how depressing it was just doom scrolling on that app daily.
Why did anybody expect reddit to back down on this. Unless reddit loses a significant portion of its user base then they have no reason to care. Currently, there really isn't any viable alternative infrastructure that could absorb millions of new users. People are going to make a fuss for a bit, but if they enjoyed using reddit before then they'll come back to using it sooner or later.
Frankly, I don't know why people keep fixating on this. I've been using Lemmy for over three years. I use it because I enjoy the community here, and I don't really think about what reddit is or isn't doing.
The blackout was to show numbers- it was not a small minority of users that cared, but rather a significant majority. Pissing off most of your users, especially your most active users, is generally a bad business move.
The real question is what people will do on July 1. Will those same users cave and switch to the official app? Reddit is counting on most users doing that, or at least enough to make it a profitable move. I personally will not.
I will only see Reddit when it comes up from a Google search, and will not get involved in the conversations. Some of my communities are already permanently dead, and others severely weakened. But others are fine, since most users there are already on the official app.
As the quality drops, more people leave, and fewer people join. Reddit could cease to be a central hub and become more niche. It could also turn into a cesspool. There are some signs that neo-nazis and otherwise shitty people will take over, not unlike we are seeing with Twitter. Or it could all blow over, and this was all just a bump in the road for Reddit.
I guarantee you that vast majority of users will use the official app because they're addicted to reddit. There is no readily available alternative around, and after some grumbling most people will go back to it. None of these protests really work unless there is a viable alternative available.
Reddit could cease to be a central hub, that's not going to happen any time in the foreseeable future. However, I still don't see why people keep perseverating over reddit. At the end of the day why does it matter. Lemmy exists, it works fine and people who really want to break from reddit have that option now. Whether majority of people does so or not doesn't really matter all that much to me.
As a few people have said already, I think it'll slowly become more crap and alternatives will slowly bring in people who get sick of it.
They're hoping for IPO and once that's done, they'll be much less forgiving when it comes to cash grabs. I can imagine them doing things like getting rid of old.reddit, not allowing the hiding of suggested posts, ads which are very targeted and intrusive.
I saw an article on the official Reddit Inc website talking about the use context in advertising, where advertiser's can change their ad based on the context of the thread. It doesn't say how they're implementing this but I could imagine a situation where they put ads directly into threads. Either way you'll start to see ads using wording which mimics the subreddits you're in or the comments you write.
I have the feeling the reddits decisions are just going to get worse as long as they can get away with it.
Yeah, honestly whether or not they back down or some solution is reached regarding the current situation, they will not stop aggressively monetizing users. A lot of veteran users will leave, some will stay or come back eventually, but I think pretty much every veteran user will be gone permanently if they get rid of old Reddit.
Yeah for sure. One thing I was thinking is that old.reddit and lots of the third party apps don't include new features Reddit put out (I think the API didn't include stuff like chat etc.) So they also could not want third party apps cause it might get in the way of people adopting new features (power users using apps that didn't have those features).
I think the mod tools are what will blow reddit up ultimately. It's why I'm here.
The third party apps are a hard self own, but I don't use reddit because of third party apps. I use third party apps because the reddit official app is... Special. If they'd forced me to sue their app I would be annoyed, but still interested in reddit.
If you destroy the key tools that enable volunteer moderators to manage communities, the community will die. Example: two of my favorite subs were legaladvice, and bestoflegaladvice. Both required extensive moderating to function (and even then, it was prone to shit shows particularly at LA). No mod tools would make it unmoderatable... Which turns you into Voat pretty fast.
So, I don't think reddit dies July 1. I think reddit spends the next year turning into Twitter, and lemmy has to run as fast as it can to scale.
Hopefully, this is my last post on lemmy talking about reddit, but I doubt I'm that lucky.
Personally, I will only be going back to Reddit if I need help with some specific thing and I can't find it in Lemmy anywhere. And only for that thread.
I think it's a matter of communities. People would stay on Reddit because of top communities and top quality content made on those communities. As long we have some form of aggregations of users making great content here on Lemmy as well, we're good imho.
Personally, I’m happy where things are now. I came over to Lemmy because of Reddit Third Party App drama, and now I’m staying because I realized that I’m spending much less time on my phone using the less popular Lemmy.
Not gonna lie I think I'm actually spending more time on Lemmy than Reddit, participating and trying to get discussions going, making content, etc. Just to try and get it active lol
It’s kind of nice to be scrolling through a couple pages and then “finish” all of the content in a short break or two. Much healthier way to interact on the internet, rather than an endless stream of low quality content and recurring posts.
I think we'll see a temporary "return to normalcy" after the protest finishes and most subs come back online. But come June 30 and the end of third-party apps, we'll see a bunch of users come back to Lemmy/Kbin again.
In a way, this seems like the best way of driving things. The protest has raised awareness and got a ton of development work going, and then there's going to be a respite giving instances time to prepare themselves for the second surge.
A return to normality is impossible since there will be no more third party apps. It may seem like things are as they were besides that, but the progressive move by Reddit to ignore Reddit's core value proposition (link aggregation and commenting) will continue, only to be replaced by attention towards monetisation-centric features no one asked for like NFTs & followers (which the third party apps ignored, gee I wonder why).
Reddit has a cancer. You can either stay in denial and experience the terminal death in slow, painful motion, or you can just move on now.
Yeah, followers were at-least majority spam over on Reddit. I primarily did politics and gaming over there... most of the accs following me were just advertisements for OnlyFans
Honestly Reddit has just turned into a TikTok aggregator more than anything. It's really all the content I ever see on there anymore (well, previously to 6/12 at least) besides the random trades-related groups I'd follow. But even those weren't immune from posting garbage from TikTok.
Ends? Its already over. You, me, and many who have replied here have moved on. Reddit isn't going anywhere but its just another site many of us will slowly see as irrelevant or uninteresting as the weeks and months tick by. For a short while in my past, DeviantArt was crazy cool. Reddit had a good run. Is Lemmy the crazy cool thing now? I dunno but I'm certainly enjoying it for the moment.
I’m looking at Reddit like Facebook now. It had its run. Many thought it would be the top social media app/site seemingly forever. It’s still around, but how many people do we know actually use it?
I’m going to try to stay off of Reddit, but I admit there are communities there I’ll miss. Then again, it was the same when I got off Facebook. I had to build the habit of NOT using it and it’s been years now.
Reddit has pissed me off with this move and I hope this decision of theirs kills the value of the company and scares investors away. Money is the only thing they care about so hopefully they feel the sting. The loss of Apollo really upsets me and I’m hoping that maybe the developer will consider building a Lemmy app.
According to Reddit’s internal memo, they expect this to blow over Wednesday with most subreddits returning, and they reported no drop in revenue so far. So they’re not likely to give in yet.
What needs to happen is that the blackout needs to continue indefinitely, and more communities need to start migrating to lemmy/kbin. If we move the content here, people will move too.
I wish it would but we announced restricting indefinitely and we're getting hate modmail, like a lot of it. And a shit ton of hate comments. Not a single comment yet in support.
Voat was always going to be a cesspool because of the actual reason they were migrating in the first place. A bunch of hate subs got banned and the kind of people who would be upset enough to boycott that are shit heads so it was inevitable.
I think a lot of people (myself included) were put off voat due the right wing politics and seemingly toxic nature of the site.
With regards to Lemmy - I'm not a communist by any stretch of the imagination but I'm definitely more left leaning and liberal, and the community aspect here is decent so far.
If it's like mastodon, most people will get bored and move back to reddit. Lemmy will grow marginally, and be more ready for the next stress test.
There will be other reddit outrages after the ipo, and lemmy will be more ready for migration. Repeat. Hopefully there's a critical mass one day, but there's no guarantee.
Personally I'm not moving back. It's a nice change of pace for me being here. I'm finally being more productive with my life now that I don't have Reddit.
For me, it's no more reddit on mobile but I'm not blocking it any time soon. If it's a Google result, so be it, there's still useful content over there.
This is what most people fail to understand. The information that has amassed on Reddit is important, yet they turn so much of it to private, some indefinitely. A proper solution would be to permanently be read-only, and have it be very easy to see "hey, new posts are now on Lemmy, feel free to post there" so that you have a permanent cripple to Reddit's userbase, and you don't burn the library to "stick it to the man".
In my view this isn't the end of Reddit, but it is the beginning of the end. This situation will probably pass, but the lemmy devs and instance owners have already gotten useful feedback about how to handle situations like this, and what kinds of things would help lemmy and the fediverse grow. The next time something like this happens (and there will be a next time) they'll be just that little bit more ready.
Although for me specifically, I don't actually care too much if Reddit dies. I'm happy as long as there's a community here. The best thing that seems to be coming out of this situation so far is that many subreddits are now getting lemmy community analogs for people to move to.
I want reddit to die. It had its day, and what we have now is a poor reflection on what it was and what it's supposed to be. Change is a good thing, it leads to improvement and making things better.
I used to feel the same way, but the more I think about it, I want Reddit to linger on so it can soak up the lower quality users and content. This will help keep communities like Lemmy more focused and useful for users who are interested in more than just mindless scrolling.
Gone downhill ever since Aaron left RIP. I think if it dies it will be slow and sad, but probably for the best. The model of putting all the power into the hands of some greedy company isn‘t working well for internet communities.
I mean, if the quality of content on the site currently is any indication of how things will look like going forward, I think maybe ditching reddit will be easier than I thought. it's wayyyyyyy more reactionary than usual, though I think there's some 4chan-originated pot-stirring going on. still though, it's not a pleasant place to be right now.
you cant really return to normalcy from this, but i dont think most users care.
whenever i get into a casual convo about the fediverse online, the general consensus from people is 'yeah reddit isnt going to die, i'll stay on reddit for my communities'. so if the majority think reddit isn't going to die and continue using the site, it probably wont die! it'll just go back to normal with a few million less users (which actually isnt that much for a big site) unless spez hilariously fucks up
really the fediverse is just a lot of people who like tech at the end of the day, not the average web user
I agree, we're getting an insane amount of hate on our sub for remaining restricted indefinitely. The general users do not seem to care about 3rd party apps or that Reddit can just bend us over at any time.
Unfortunately yeah :/ a few people I've talked to support the blackout but have never heard of Lemmy or the fediverse and presumably have no alternative
The concerning part will be what nonsense gets shoved into their apps in order to earn that discount. I'm guessing loads of ads and trackers under Reddits control.
Reddit was never going to just shut down overnight, but it's more or less done for me (barring some sudden change with the API stuff, but even then I'd make an effort to use it less). I'll keep my account around and might occasionally go to it to look up specific things or visit more niche communities that don't have much of a presence here or on other alternatives yet, but I'm done with just generally browsing reddit or providing any content for them. I'm enjoying it here and hope the boost in activity allows for continued growth and filling out of communities for more specific topics.
I'm in the same boat. I mainly used Reddit to get into new hobbies and currently it's cycling. The amount of new posts on there is staggering and I've learned a ton over the past year. I'll be unsubbing from most subreddits and using it as a tool for specific subjects. For community building, discussions, and news I think I've found a new home in Lemmy. Hopefully I can contribute and help nieche communities grow so I can leave altogether.
I mode 3 subs on reddit. my biggest is 75k but i only get like 4 post a day from my biggest sub. It's a big sub to me. we went dark on the 12th I checked reddit yesterday quickly and looked like in mod-mail I had a join request. I can only hope that Reddit takes notice of us and changes it's tune. Lemmy is awesome and I hope it gets better and surpasses Reddit
How do I think this ends? I think it won't matter to their bottom line. Although I am happy with the participation thusfar, Reddit benefits not only from the current use, but the redirection from every Google search toward Reddit. Unless moderators deleted the content before they leave (idk if even possible), the impact is but a blink in a profit report. And the CEO will use their stability as a personal reinforcement.
That said, good riddance, I don't want those willing to stay to be a part of communities I'm in anyway. So far the new life here on Lemmy seems to be very cooperative and positive-- I hope this is maintained.
How do I think this ends? I think it won’t matter to their bottom line
I'm curious how Digg's bottom-line ended up. Reddit thinks they're too big to fail, and maybe that's true. But Twitter's too big to fail, and just keeps "succeeding with less money".
With Digg, it was all about APIs as well. People don't remember that. There's a reason the big fights are over APIs. And it's not just about money (I'd pay for gold to use a third party client with no ads, maybe even more). Reddit's not just looking to monetize third-party-app users, they're trying to change the entire face of reddit to be more vendor-focused and less redditor-focused. It might not look dramatically different on 7/1 (or it might; Digg changed pretty quick). Reddit keeps talking about how much AI uses the APIs, but I think they really mean "how much we want to sell the APIs for AI". Maybe that's better than Digg because maybe we (the product) don't feel it as obviously.
But let's be honest, the next step regardless of whether reddit becomes a Copilot source feed, is that the same AI is hooked up to the APIs to create content and monetize reddit even more for companies.
It's not about the third party tools being killed by this, it's about all the clients they think they can get to pay these new prices.
We run ads on Reddit to get a few suckers to use our apps. Our ad campaigns the past 2 days have sucked, so much that we started using Google AdWords again. That's permanent damage to Reddit's income, since a portion of our advertising budget has been redirected.
You're right, this will change anything major, but it's nice to know there will be a small ripple.
(And yes, Google isn't "better than Reddit", but an exitory ripple is the main point)
Maybe I'm petty and reckless but I'd love to see more sabotage on the way out 😬. Make everyone want to avoid reddit even as casual lurkers without accounts. 👹
I think you're going to know by one metric. Quality of content over the next ~3 - 6 months. Whether subs stay or go is one thing, that's been part of Reddit for the 12 years I used it. What would get folks to leave is when the communities they are interested in aren't supplying content.
So if you lose some lurkers, that's not gonna matter because they didn't post anyways. If you start losing power users, who regularly feed your community content, what's going to drive you to stick around? If you ask me, I think the fact we are even having this conversation means Reddit is losing in this equation.
I think Reddit has in some parts already lost this fight.
For one of my hobbies, simracing, I used a couple of subreddits to stay informed.
Honestly, looking back, it was a mile wide but an inch deep. Basically the same 4 topics on rotation. It became stale months ago.
Now, I haven't found a good Lemmy community for this. But forums. And it is night and day how much more in depth the discussion is there. Whatever reddit does, I won't come back. The last week has encouraged me to look for alternative content and I found better stuff.
Sure, this is most likely different for other interests. But I can't be the only one that found alternatives to Reddit that he prefers, even ignoring API or blackout etc.
I'm a fellow Sim Racer..... I used to frequent the sub daily prior to nuking my account a week or so ago. Would you mind sharing the new community you found? I'm yet to find a replacement on Lemmy :)
MIle wide but inch deep is a good descriptor of a lot of subs these days. For instance, Formula 1. 10-12 years ago when it was more of a niche community you had hardcore fans there with a rich knowledge of the history of the sport. As it grew in popularity the quality of the content decreased. These days there are threads reposting fashion photos of the drivers with hundreds or thousands of upvotes and comments, which ultimately don't mean anything. I can think of other subs where posters started sharing their fan art or creations and eventually everybody was doing it instead of having intelligent conversations.
Same here. I've begun actively searching for communities forums, lemmy, etc that make me want to participate outside of lurking.
Your point about the depth of content/conversations is so true. The number of times you'd see the same post over and over again. Then dive into the comments for the top comments to be highly predictable copypasta or "unpopular" opinions that were actually super common made browsing very unenjoyable.
I can actually see plenty of people and communities permanently migrating over to Lemmy instances. Some are actually creating their very own federated Lemmy instances.
So now, for those who created their own instances, there will be no more censoring and imposing from a higher organization.
I don't see why to not use Fediverse, Mastodon apps are great already, and Lemmy apps are getting updated and improved as we speak.
Yes, the web front-end still needs work, and yes, Lemmy still lacks in some features, but that is being worked on as we speak, and I believe that some of the users migrating over, are devs, that will actually help to improve Lemmy, which is Open Source. So, if there's a feature you'd like Lemmy to have, just open a Pull Request!
I agree that it does work, and very well. It just needs some work on the responsive design I think, and maybe aesthetics. But that's just a subjective opinion, not really an issue I might give it a go myself at it when I have some time and maybe I send a PR or two.
The communities you love are made of people, and people will go to someplace better.
When googleplus ended, it was a mess in the initial migration. But soon people agreed to stick to better places, and the communities survived.
Reddit is just a venue that used to be nice to hang out with friends and now is turning into a shopping center. It's annoying to change venues, but real friends will stick togheter.
I don't think that Reddit is going down, but i have seen users that post regularly on Reddit closing down their accounts and joining Lemmy, this will snowball into more joining Lemmy because the quality of post will eventually go down on Reddit and go up on Lemmy, this is just speculations and have a really lose base.
I think this will just lead to reddit becoming more mainstream - not in a good way but in the way facebook did. This already happened in the past thanks to marketing pushes and most of the bigger subs are really crappy at this point.
So in the long term, reddit might die due to the quality of the content becoming worse. But for now investors might be happy.
I agree this will snowball
This is the digg Exodus all over again.
It will happen as fast as Lemmy can make federated content seamless. Interacting with content outside your instance is a chore that needs lots of reading to overcome.
But Reddit used the nuclear option and treated is users with disrespect and took them for granted. This is the end phase.
I unfortunately think 1 is the most likely, at least for now. A one-time disruption won't be enough to sink Reddit. What could permanently change things is the sustained build-up of viable alternatives over time. So I guess you can look at the blackout stuff not as the end for Reddit, but maybe the canary in the coal mine for a gradual descent.
I don't think a consensus alternative is necessarily required. It might be best for the masses to be split amongst the many alternatives giving each one an opportunity to grow, improve and potentially rise up as a result of this event. I for one will not be using Reddit at all except for very specific sources of information which I will probably just scrape and store offline anyway.
I also like the concept of fediverse instances being local, meaning the internet is becoming truly more physically decentralized with local home based servers providing a base for local user registration and content creation/consumption. This has the potential for users to start 'filtering' their online experience to content created by the people in their local communities versus just a vast pool of global users.
I'm not sure I'm on board with joining a local instance. I live in a very conservative and religious country and I don't want to feel the need to censor myself on any community out of fear of having the instance admin ban my account because of differing beliefs. I'm sure it would work better for some than global instances, but I'm afraid they'd be prone to conformity and even nationalism.
I don't think Reddit will die. This is a rough time. Reddit will survive. They will IPO, make some money, piss some people off, and once the dust settles things will go back to normal. Eventually something else will surpass it.
I'm not going to lie, I'm addicted to Reddit. While I'm not going to abandon Lemmy, I can't just leave Reddit. There are subs that can't be replaced. r/USMC is an amazing place to help active duty and veterans alike. r/Nascar has race threads that are fun as hell to read through. I'm going to limit my use to those subs that I can't get in Lemmy. (yet...)
Here's my take, I grabbed it from my reddit comment, it's slightly out of context so excuse that:
I do think reddit will continue to function, but its communities and services will undoubtedly begin to change following July 1st as users begin to shift to different platforms like Lemmy, Kbin, and Squabbles.
And don't think that as reddit aims for quarterly growth, they won't try to pull more shit on their users. It's only a matter of time before reddit is an amalgamation of Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter.
RPAN probably failed because either nobody wanted to use their first party app, or were using old.reddit.com. RPAN was their first attempt at reddit trying to "catch the waves" of services like YouTube Shorts, TikTok, and Instagram Reels. The most recent r/place was the second attempt at getting people to use their mobile app.
Expect reddit to keep adding "trend catching" features over the next year or so while you're confined to reddit.com without RES, and reddits mobile app. Unfortunately, reddit will eventually it will be a shell of what reddit once was, and the users that choose to stay will be the ones willing to put up with their shit.
So yes, of course the point is to make money! Though it will almost always be poorly reflected on its users, and they'll go any length to make sure they're doing just enough to keep you here but not enough for you to want to leave. Users will make their decision to stay or leave over the coming months as you see this "enshiftification".
Here's a good article on this, it's very interesting:
I'm going to do my part to help Reddit become irrelevant. There's only two or three subreddits that I care about, and I never really participate there, it's more to get memes and news from my country. I'm planning to delete my 12 year old account with thousands of posts and just lurk in those subs and steal the content once or twice a week.
Reddit has weathered controversies bigger than the one that killed Digg. What Reddit has going for it is the fact that it's userbase is fractured into different communities and it's easier for people to stay in their own niche while ignoring the rest of the site.