I've got $1 that says that this was a supply chain attack. LiPo batteries tend to fart fire when they overheat, not explode, and not wth enough force to blow holes in people.
Makes you wonder how bulky you can make some electronics before anybody notices it's filled with C4.
It doesn't sound like the death toll is particularly high, but for sure it's put a lot of people out of action, and they're going to need a job lot of prosthetic hands.
I saw unsubstantiated reports claiming there was 10-20 grams of high explosive (eg C4). Which looks pretty "right" based on the footage I looked at before remembering this would be faces of death. An energetic "explosion" coming out the side of the pager that, combined with the metal from the batteries or the interior plates of the pager, would generate a good amount of shrapnel. So high odds of death if you were looking at your pager to read the message and almost guaranteed injury and cuts otherwise. And, if you were gripping your pager on the wrong side, likely loss of fingers (like a fire cracker in the hand).
Its one reason that a big part of securing your supply chains is to actually inspect what you purchase. (Allegedly) Israel with a few hours in a warehouse overnight could swap out a LOT of pager backplates in ways that are more or less indetectable at a glance or even picking it up (20 grams is nothing). But if you were to weigh those and realize they are 20 grams heavier than all the other pagers you bought (since packaged goods are fairly consistent), that should raise a lot of red flags.
But I am not aware of even government orgs (let alone terrorist orgs) who are willing to put the effort in to do that.
The question is if they did it with just the battery, or if there's some explosive device in the pagers. So it's either an unbelievable feat of logistics, or a reason for everyone in the world to think twice before carrying their phone around
Probably logistics. They had hacked the smartphones, so Hezbollah decided that they would turn to older tech that was harder to hack or intercept. But of course this presented a great opportunity, as there aren't that many maker of pagers left in the world. So the Mossad probably interdicted the delivery process to tamper with them and insert explosives.
Lithium batteries don't explode, they fizz really quickly into a flame. The incidents reported included an explosion, and in several occasions they injured not just the user but several people around them. EDIT: apparently they didn't even have Lithium batteries, just use regular alkalines. So there was no way to make them explode without inserting an explosive and rewiring the device. Alkalines also just tend to leak when they overheat, not explode. To make them explode you have to feed them with high current, which the pager doesn't have space or circuitry inside to induce that, and it is still very rare even when you do overcharge them.
quite aside from the question of how you hack thousands of pagers to make them explode, what are we carrying around in our daily lives that are one internet command away from blowing up?
What's incredible to me is that this is basically guaranteed to only hit Hezbollah's command structure. 3000 hospitalized, and so far the only collateral damage is a handful of close relatives who were in cars that created as a result. That's biblical plague levels of precision strike capabilities.
For Hezbollah, this is putting over half their command staff out of the picture for a week. That's an incredible blow that will be hard for them to come back from. If Lebanon is smart, they'll use the opportunity to forcefully disarm Hezbollah.
There is a lot of footage (some "fun" and some horrific) of pagers exploding in grocery stores and malls and the like. Because the point of the pagers was for the terrorists to be reachable outside of caves and camps.
And... there are civilians standing around in those cases. With kids who tend to have heads at waist level.
Yeah, I don't think they were the exclusive users of these pagers. I know in the US, pagers are still used by hospital staff, for example. So if a doctor with one of these pagers has one on a bus, and it explodes, it hits a doctor and a few people around them. Not necessarily any Hezbollah (who Israel really shouldn't be assassinating in the first place).