AI industry needs to earn $600 billion per year to pay for massive hardware spend — fears of an AI bubble intensify in wake of Sequoia report
AI industry needs to earn $600 billion per year to pay for massive hardware spend — fears of an AI bubble intensify in wake of Sequoia report
The AI bubble is reaching a tipping point?
Duh… it’s just the next buzzword grift… blockchain, nft, AI… yes each one has a niche of a place but they’re not world changers people were making them out to be, just those were were trying to ride the bubble and get their money before it pops.
The main difference I see is that blockchain and nfts never really made a huge splash in large corporations. Now we have the S&P 500 dominated primarily by tech companies that are dumping billions into AI and telling investors it will turn all their fantasies into reality. I don't remember bitcoin ever motivating this level of institutional bedlam.
When those tech companies fail to breakeven on their ai initiatives, I think the deflating of the ai bubble may just trigger a major recession. Look at any target year retirement fund and Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, NVidia, Apple are all insanely large portions of the fund holdings.
I personally think all those companies have enough cash and revenues (not tied to "AI" pitches) that we don't have to worry about a US recession (with consequences for the the rest of us), but I could be wrong.
But one does wonder what happened to (US) corporate governance laws where such actions can be taken with no worry.
I really don't think they will. I know AI has some value because I use it often, but I really doubt it has that much value
If limits on true intelligence are not overcome, it does seem like it’s reaching the state of a commodity. Just a competent enough level of service expected from any LLM.
And if true intelligence is ever achieved then there's a whole new set of concerns, such as sentience and robot rights.
My experience with "AI" is somewhat limited (image/video upscaling, occasional LLM use and fooling around with stable diffusion), but the true intelligence "AGI" sounds like a grift to get money from investors.
I could be wrong of course.
Nah we just fire 50% more worker. Problem solved.
You joke, but that's their goal. That's probably a conservative estimate.
Maybe if tech companies didn't put strangleholds on their markets they'd have better ideas of what people want.
My economic output is being leeched and dumped into this garbage and I have no conceivable way to have the value I produce return a decent fraction of money. At what point is society less my host and more my jailor?
The thing people aren't talking about enough is the depreciation of all the GPU hardware. The $10B Microsoft spends on Azure GPU hardware may bring in only $5B in revenue, but they get to write off the cost against their taxes.
AI is mostly a grift at this point. It’s just a label people slap on any product by adding 3 lines of Python pointing to OpenAI. If you want boilerplate data then sure, that can be useful at times, and maybe condensing data can be handy as well.
Recently I realized this is just the visible grift because it’s all over the news. What other hype bubbles are floating around other industries, propping up the bullshit economy we are wasting our lives to keep alive?