he used to be a real journalist and he was great at finding conflicts on the ground and livestreaming them. something happened in the last 10 years, but he was, truly, a good journalist.
Might be better than trump, in that she hasn't pledged state sponsored political retribution and throwing out The Constitution, but Haley is still a Republican through and through and there is zero chance of a rational dem voting for her over Biden.
I'm wondering if there is a bit of misunderstanding or miscommunication going on here? I don't know the statement or the context, but my interpretation based on OPs title is that this person is implying ...
Registered Democrats will switch their party affiliation so that they can vote for Haley to be the Republican nominee for president.
The implication that enough Democrats will do this that it will affect the outcome is, how shall I put this nicely, wholly unsupported by data or reality. On the other hand, the intellectually dishonest types will actively seek examples of people doing this (or claiming to do it) and use that as "evidence" that it is happening on a wide scale.
The fact that some number of people will switch parties to vote in a primary is inevitable and happens every presidential election cycle and is not a tool used only by members of one party. You might as well predict that someone will get into a car accident in the USA in the next 24 hours.
I have read about individuals doing this, but to my knowledge it has never happened in any sufficient numbers to tilt a primary in any state.
Some states run open primaries, so that any person can vote in any (but only one) primary. Other states run closed primaries, such that any voter who has registered as a member of that party can vote in that particular party’s primary. Yet others (eg, California last time I checked) have mixed modes. I believe the CA GOP primary is closed by the Democratic primary is open.
You can tell relatively easily by the number of votes in any given primary election whether they’re consistent in terms of turnout with previous years. As far as I’ve ever read, they tend to be year over year consistent. The one trend that has been noted in recent years is a small but as far as I know steady increase in independent voters (who as stated may or may not be able to vote in primaries depending on their state, but based on number of votes cast do not seem to have been a deciding factor in primary votes).
I generally have suspected that the idea of people switching parties to act as primary spoilers is largely just projection, as we tend to expect malfeasance of the Other, but the hard truth is that you can barely get large numbers of people to vote in actual elections, much less in something like a primary.
So, it varies by state because everything is a certain degree of a shit-show here. In my state, you show up at the primary election site and you ask for one of two ballots. That's enough to "register" you as a Dem or Rep. It's pretty meaningless.
I know of one coworker who voted for Trump in the 2015 primary to "take down the Republican party from the inside." Great strategy, Steve. I'm guessing that some similar idiocy is what's being talked about here.
none of this really answers my questions. iguess the suggestion she would beat biden implies that democrats wouldn't really want to nominate her, but who can say?
Democrats want Biden to win the election. Haley being nominated makes that harder.
If they don't want her to be nominated, they're not going to help her get nominated, are they?
5 second google:
A POLITICO analysis shows the former South Carolina governor is winning swaths of moderate voters who’d pick Joe Biden if Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination.
GOP’s Haley attracts non-Republicans ... also regularly attracts swing voters who backed President Biden in 2020 ... Leaning into her appeal to the political middle on the trail, Haley highlights surveys that show her leading Biden by double digits — 17 percentage points in one recent Wall Street Journal survey
Democrats acknowledge Haley could pose more of a threat to Biden than Trump, so they are tying her to the former president on virtually every issue ... Democrats privately acknowledge that she would likely represent a worrisome opponent for Biden, citing polling that shows the former governor as the best-positioned candidate to unseat the sitting president in the general election.