2024: The Year Linux Dethrones Windows on the Desktop – Are You Ready?
2024: The Year Linux Dethrones Windows on the Desktop – Are You Ready?
- NTSync coming in Kernel 6.11 for better Wine/Proton game performance and porting.
- Wine-Wayland last 4/5 parts left to be merged before end of 2024
- Wayland HDR/Game color protocol will be finished before end of 2024
- Nvidia 555/560 will be out for a perfect no stutter Nvidia performance
- KDE/Gnome reaching stability and usability with NO FKN ADS
- VR being usable
- More Wine development and more Games being ported
- Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
- Windows 10 coming to EOL
- Improved Linux simplicity and support
- Web-native apps (Including Msft Office and Adobe)
- .Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
What else am I missing?
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There's more than a few reasons why Linux can't make the jump to holding a dominant position in the desktop market.
One is simply preinstallation. For companies (and therefore the general public) to adopt the Desktop Linux, they'd need it simply to be installed for them, with a Desktop Environment like Gnome or KDE.
Secondly is updates. As much as Linux users tout the control they have over when and how updates take place, and how much Windows users will always complain about having to update their systems, until system updates on Linux are made automatic (or at least given the option to be made automatic), there cannot be a mainstream Linux Desktop. This means updates that happen very much like Windows, no administrator/sudo password, just happens on reboot regularly.
The reason for this is mainly that the average user would never update unless forced, and then when something inevitably breaks, they are left, as always, frustrated that their computer just didn't work as expected forever without any upkeep, understanding, or updates.
Lastly is support. And this is multifaceted. By support I mean software support by companies like Adobe. I also mean a much farther reaching swath of random devices that literally plug and play like on Windows.
As an aside, I'll also say that since there is a move towards Wayland, there also needs to be a No Configuration Necessary way of running Nvidia on Wayland. This is less a Linux issue, and more a Nvidia one, but until pretty much any and all hardware works on Linux the way it just works on Windows, this sadly affects Linux Desktop adoption as more and more of the Linux Desktop ecosystem moves towards forcing Wayland adoption.
Finally I'll say that the Microsoft corporation at large obviously relies mainly on Corporate Adoption of its products and services, and that the Windows Desktop is simply one part of that greater whole. Their approach to competing with Apple and their walled garden ecosystem has been to slowly but surely create their own, its just so much larger you forget there are walls. They have done this by absorbing more and more of the tech ecosystem either by acquisition, invention, or otherwise. Examples ot this include Bing and All Search Engines that Use it, the pushing of TypeScript into JavaScript Development, the predominance and proliferation of VSStudio/VSCode in modern software development, their heavy involvement with OpenAI and aggressive pushing of AI products/services, their acquisition of Github and subsequent further expansion of influence over software development and distribution, and much much more.
Despite the privacy invasion, enshittefication of the user experience, and their various other ways they have mistreated their users specifically via the direction they've taken Windows, Microsoft has established itself as THE Desktop, as THE Workstation, and as THE company that comes to mind when the average person mentions "computer", and the majority of people associate computer related productivity and play with Windows.
For all the advances made to Desktop Linux, especially in recent years, it is unlikely that Linux Desktop adoption will ever proliferate to the kinds of mainstream adoption that its accolades desire. Until Linux (or at least a Linux distribution) can demonstrate what I've mentioned above (preinstallation, automatic/automated updates, and wide spread software/hardware support from various 3rd party vendors) along with demonstrating a work flow/user experience that is somehow both familiar to the user and also better than the experience on Windows, then the day of the Linux Desktop will never come.
This aforementioned demonstration, btw, would have to become obscenely apparent to the average every day computer user who just wants to get their work done, play a Video Game, and watch Netflix, all without having to ever even know what a terminal emulator is.
I love Linux, and I think the Linux Desktop is not only a superior user experience, but is just better in general than Windows. But the average user I've encountered generally hates their Computer if it doesn't work as expected 110% of the time. Linux, and honestly computers, will never be able to do that, but the closer the Desktop (and user facing GUIs more broadly) get to creating that illusion of "it all just works all the time", the more adoption you'll see.
Pretty sure Ubuntu does hands off updates. And neither arch or Ubuntu required me to do any configuration to get Nvidia graphics working aside from the driver selection in the installer
On X11, Nvidia is pretty close to plug n'play (unless you install multiple kernels, but even then it isn't so bad). Wayland has been a stuttery mess for Nvidia for a while now and there's a long standing issue up that hopefully will be resolved in 550 release.
That said, linux desktop environment developers will likely have to adjust a large amount of environment variables (more than they probably have already) that thus far have had to be set by the User by hand. One has only to look at the Hyprland docs on setting up Nvidia to see the extent to which the bulk of the configuration is set on the User as it stands right now.
I'm on Wayland
no automatic updates
Well it’s really not entirely true unless you’re on a rolling release (which most people should if they can do basic system administration themselves). Unattended updates were a thing in traditional Linux distros with frozen release cycles since forever. On any Ubuntu-based system it’s a matter of switching a toggle, and I think it could’ve been Mint that enabled that by default (I’m not sure) at least for security updates, because users never updated their systems. They can still be done much quicker and more transparently than Windows does that, without ever forcing users to reboot in any given time.
The problem is also that once in like 5 years you absolutely have to upgrade system to a newer version to keep it updates in such scenario. Popping up a dialog with info that your system goes EOL and you’ll loose security updates and one click upgrade button should be enough.
Yeah, Fedora has the closest I've seen to this, as they do a rolling release distribution cycle, but with a major update every year. It's still too hands on for the average Windows user from what I've seen.
That said, in the particular case of the Fedora upgrade, I'll admit I get lazy in the other direction. If I can accomplish a task from the terminal, 99.9% of the time, I'll do it simply because it's exponentially faster.
it is unlikely that Linux Desktop adoption will ever proliferate to the kinds of mainstream adoption that its accolades desire.
And if it does, the acolytes will hate it and start pushing for BSD adoption, because there's a huge streak of hipsterism in the Linux community
Ah BSD, the OS that probably doesn't have an NSA backdoor in it because it's just not worth their time, lol.
the pushing of TypeScript into JavaScript Development,
TIL that Typescript was developed by MS. It's "free and open-source" though, i'd say the hability for them to cripple it are minimal?
GitHub was a blow though and it's why i recommend CodeBerg at every chance i get. They're on mastodon: @Codeberg@[email protected]
I'd say Ubuntu is probably the distro closer to being the "desktop linux", Canonical's been trying to be like MS for years.
Yeah, I generally agree with all sentiments. TS is handy at times, but working with poorly written .d.ts types from 3rd party libs is Hell.
The MS acquisition of Github is sad imho. Using alternatives is nice. I'll eventually get around to self hosting a Gitea or cgit instance.
Ubuntu, Mint, and PopOS are probably the closest to a mainstream Linux Desktop from what I've seen, and perhaps one day one of those really will take the mantle and push the Linux Desktop forward into the mainstream, but I just don't see it. I do hope I'm wrong though.
This aforementioned demonstration, btw, would have to become obscenely apparent to the average every day computer user who just wants to get their work done, play a Video Game, and watch Netflix, all without having to ever even know what a terminal emulator is.
That sums it all up. The average user wants a PC that just works. Terminal is a big no for the average user, and while we dont get gui ways of doing everything an average user does, it will be a big barrier. Even calamares needs to be waaaaay simpler (like a "i have no idea what im doing, configure it all for me" option).
Pop has automatic updates now.
nice doctorate thesis bro
I think we should be thankful for having users contribute long-form thought-out content like this, instead of ridiculing them.
Agreed. I don’t care enough to read it all. But to anyone who does. Nice.
nice tweet of support sis