The Kremlin orders the arrest of Yevgeny Prigozhin as Wagner rebels take control of military sites in Russia.
Prigozhin says Wagner Group is turning its convoys around.
They wanted to dissolve Wagner Group. On June 23, we set off on our “march of justice.” In the span of 24 hours, we got within 200 kilometers of Moscow. During the time, not a single drop of our fighters’ blood was shed. Now we’ve reached a point where bloodshed is possible. So, understanding the full responsibility for the potential shedding of Russian blood from either side, we’re turning our columns around and heading back in the opposite direction towards our field camps, according to plan.
Perhaps this isn't the coup just yet. Most likely his attempts to rally the Russian military to his side failed and it's possible that he was offered some kind of deal to not be arrested/killed if he waved off now.
How he was going to hold Moscow with less than 20k troops (assuming some peeled off on the march for various duties), I didn't know. It's a huge city and 20k troops would be a small footprint once you spread them out over such a large metro area. Maybe waving off at this point was all part of the expected brinksmanship he's been playing with the head of the Russian MoD?
As usual it’s all theater. The real question is if Putin was part of it from the start or if it was just him showing he had the loyalty of the Russian army.
I agree it's likely real. But purely theoretically, if Putin wanted to distance himself from something, this would be one approach. E.g. if Prigozhin commits a war crime and Putin can say, "What am I to do!? Revolting mercenaries!"
That’s what it seems to me. But something is still really weird about it all. Is this Wagner chief really that rash and impulsive? What on earth could have convinced him to turn around so fast? So fucking weird.
What? Nothing was stopping them. They steam rolled.right into Moscow region and onto the doorstep of the city proper. As it is,bits unclear how much resistance they would have faced.
I don't think it's ever been in Putin's modus operandi to seem like he's scared and lost control of his country to the point of having the capital city attacked.
Prigozhin decides "if I'm dead anyway, I'm taking Putin with me"
Lukashenko somehow convinces Prigozhin that "it's ok, Putin changed his mind and won't kill you anymore" - so Prigozhin no longer feels the need to go for a suicide mission (although how Lukashenko convinced Prigozhin of this, I have no idea)
If this had really been about Shoigu or a coup or anything other than just a suicide mission, then the current result makes 0 sense. (But in that case, maybe the situation isn't really over at all)
Nah, if Prigozhin doesn't have loyalists installed at FSB, Interior, and Defence he's a dead man. I guarantee you he knows this. You don't get into a position of power in Russia without knowing that. His lead elements were holding an Operational Rally Point just outside of Moscow when they just... turned around and a promise...? From Putin...?
No chance, Prigozhin may be a ruthless, cutthroat sociopath but he's not an idiot. Add to that Putin called him out as a terrorist, a mutineers, an enemy of the state, for Putin to U-turn makes him look weak. Sure, the leverage is there but there's no way you make him look weak and just walkway... not AND survive for very long...
Yeah, He has to have his people installed at Defence, FSB and Interior, and at that point he's in charge of the Russian Federation in all but name.
This whole situation is so bizarre. I'm super curious what's really going on behind the scene here. Was some type of secret deal struck to make Prigozhin happy enough to turn around and leave? Hopefully more information on these events starts to leak out over the coming days from involved sources.
I don't see how you'd ever be able to convince Prigozhin he's not going to fall out a window, get novichok'd, or find some polonium in his tea after even daring to turn and march on Moscow.
"So, understanding the full responsibility for the potential shedding of Russian blood from either side"
What did he THINK would happen when he reached Moscow? Putin would come out on a terrace and address everyone with "Thank you for proving your resolve! As a reward, you may torture as many Ukrainians as you want!"
Wagner group has agreed they can report direct to president to show their loyalty, they are now trying to sell it as always loyal to Putin just not the ,"bad generals at the MoD that are losing the war".