This I 100% believe. The US is weak right now as Trump and Elon cripple vital institutions, fire highly qualified generals, lash out at allies, and financially strangle anyone who won't kiss the ring. Inflation and housing costs continue to rise, and I worry the US is headed towards another Depression. Hegseth appears to be trying to turn the military into a brainless machine that shoots first and asks questions later.
I fully expect China to take over Taiwan without much resistance from the US, since it will be too busy shooting itself in the foot.
China genuinely doesn't care about Taipei at this point, given how close mainland native chips are to tsmc chips. If Taipei does a rebellion it'll get shut down and the US in its current form wouldn't be able to aid it; but as long as the frog doesn't jump it won't get hit.
I disagree simply because China has already signaled they wanted to move against Taiwan during previous, stronger US administrations. It would be strange for them not to seize the opportunity now, when the US is at one of its weakest times in history.
China having a monopoly on the US's main source of silicon is powerful leverage against even the billionaires.
China is boxed in by US backed islands from Korea (a de facto island) to the Philippines. Having a guaranteed gap out into open water from the mainland is worth more to a major power than the chip manufacturing. It's the same conflict that Turkey is having with Greece, where one nation is boxed in by another.