Do not under estimate the Tories
Do not under estimate the Tories
This is opinion. So read it as such. But consider it please.
Obviously if you read this based on the title. I assume you oppose the Tories.
But if you are wondering why labour are so keen to manage expectations. There is a reason.
Campaign funding wise the Tories are estimated to be 19m ahead of labour. But honestly at the moment they are not spending a huge amount more.
We know the Tories are skilled at election manipulation. So there is genuine fear that the Tories plan to launch a campaign within the last few days.
I.E. when there is less time and funding to ensure fact checking is effective.
They know Starmer is more publicity aware then Corbyn was. He is able to play it in a way that dose not scare traditional Conservative voters.
They also know thanks to Boris, that the courts are unable to punish them for outright lies during any political campaign. And that Rishi is prepared to lie about and accuse civil servants of lying when challenged.
As huge as polling is against the Tories. All it would take is some dramatic claim against the party or Starmer. To convince Tory traditional voters to bite their tongue and vote Tory. While convincing left wing voters not to vote or to switch to 3rd party in seats where labour are the 1st or 2nd party.
The fact we know they have a huge amount of money unspent. Makes it clear they plan to launch something nearer the end of the election. And the only advantage of leaving it so late. Is it will limit the ability of the party to effectively react. Or fact checkers to be able to prove and distribute evidence of lies.
Please be prepared for this.
Everyone, just please go and vote if you are able to. It's very little time out of your day and it's only once every few years. Remember that you do need photo ID this time
If you are interested in tactical voting, something our electoral system unfortunately incentivises, then there is https://stopthetories.vote/ to vote against the Conservatives
duverger's law is not actually a law at all, but a tautology. it has no actual predictive power, and hand-waves away evidence of instances where it has not turned out to be true.
Nobody, including Duverger, thinks that it's an ironclad thing. That's actually discussed in the link. It does appear to be a pretty accurate predictor of the behaviour of British elections though. The fact that there's even an outside possibility that the Conservatives might not be one of the two biggest parties after this election is noteworthy.
I'm not sure I understand why you're calling it a tautology. It doesn't seem to fit any of the definitions I know of that word. It doesn't fit the formal logic one since there are clearly imaginable scenarios in which it isn't true (a parliamentary system in which more than two parties consistently emerge as the largest), and it doesn't fit the literary one because it's not a repeat of the same thing twice. Could you explain what you mean here?
Some of the voters are a bit scary too. I keep hearing a clip from LBC where some asks Starmer if he would've been in Corbyn's cabinet.
Starmer kicked Corbyn out. That's years ago. Why are you still trying to link the two people still now.
Finally, who are the 20% that would still vote Tory? Rich business people with no ethics?
Why are you still trying to link the two people still now.
Because that is where the Tories are likely spending some money. They keep bringing up the he supported Corbyn. They and the right wing of labour spent in the last election to destroy his reputation. So the Tory party sees it as a cheap attack to push the idea over social media.
I am a little disappointed that it is not answered with, how Rishi was willing to support a PM candidate with a racist publications in the media and later willing to lie to parliament to prevent their ability to shut down his policies.
It's just getting more and more difficult to feel okay voting Labour. I know splitting the left wing vote isn't tactically smart, but voting for labour isn't even a left wing vote anymore :(
(I'm still pro-tactical voting, I'm just doing it with more frustration than ever before)
There will literally be Tory trolls/bots pushing this narrative to split the Labour vote. Get the Tories out, then push Labour for PR, hard, to keep Tories out of unjust power.
I used to be a party member but left years ago when it got rough! Maybe getting back into politics more directly is the way to go: changing parties from within!
I’m just doing it with more frustration than ever before
Pretty sure that represents the labour lead atm. Def folks wanting to vote against tories rather then for labour. Unfortunately it also leave the Tories with an open attack vector. They just need to time the right attack to dramatically split the left vote in Lab seats where they are still 2nd.
It's just getting more and more difficult to feel okay voting Labour.
Why? The Tories are barreling towards literal fascism, anything that will stop that is good. Could Labourbe better, absolutely, but it is not worth falling into what America has become just to spite them for being centralist and unambitious.
Some of Labour's recent policies (and stances on Palestine, trans people, etc) are scary and harmful. It's emotionally hard having to vote for a party that has spoken about removing your rights.
Pragmatically though: I know voting Labour will still shift things towards being better, even if that "better" is way worse than I wanted, and I would never begrudge anyone for voting for them. There's always more we can do in-between elections anyway
jokes on them I already sent in my postal vote
Hard agree. They gutted the electoral commission while gerrymandering like crazy. They have an army of right wing boomers brow beating anyone they come across into the ground with their "the two parties are identical in every single way" BS (all claiming to be left wingers while doing so, of course). If labour had been betting on things, using insider knowledge, there would be arrests already. The Met police went to the most secure and videoed place in the country (10 downing street) and lied, telling the whole nation that there was no evidence of the parties they were having during lockdown. Etc etc etc.
The very wealthy people and powerful people they represent won't go quietly, if at all, and they have no morals.
Starmer purged the left wing from his party, he can't be surprised when they don't vote for him.
Agreed. But its not about starmer being good. Its about being less bad then the Tories.
FPTP is an utter fuck over of an electoral system. That leaves very few places where voting 3rd party or even not voting is not a vote for Tory rule.
Its unpleasant but a simple fact that evil is quantifiable. When your choice is limited via the voting system. Refusing to vote for the lesser of 2 evils basically means you support goes to the greater.
The fight to resist evil is never wholly successful, but always necessary.
Maybe, or maybe they realise how screwed they are and will just save some of the cash for a future election.
That is the definition of under estimation. Any theory can be wrong. But when you compare the cost of being prepared. Vs the cost of another 5 years of Tory rule. Its rather daft to ignore the money being there. Especially when you consider previous election manipulations the Tories and their right wing media supporters have managed.
If you're worried about this, the best way to prevent it is to donate to and volunteer with the Labour party. Yes, there's a few places where voting for a different party is the better anti-Tory tactic if that is your priority, BUT:
- it's hard to know for sure who the best vote is because the various tactical tools, polls, etc., often don't agree
- very nearly everywhere Labour is your best bet anyway
under estimate
opiniin
tittle
Boris. That
rishi
prepared to lies about
lieing
starmer
Amd the only adva tage
late. Is it
yeah when a visually impaired person types on a tablet errors happen. I am now at my larger PC Monitor and planning to fix.
But remember. Grammar and spelling do not relate to the value of an opinion. They are not related to intelligence but judging folks for it is.
Was hoping we could leave the pedantic, snarky replies at Reddit.
It’s the internet, who gives a fuck about someone’s spelling…
Agreed. My grammar is bad. I am always happy when folks politely point out errors. Or ask to clarify things it confuses.
But I am also visually impaired. So situations like this where every obvious typo is pointed out. I judge as being someone looking to reinforce their own feeling of lacking intelligence.
Also, when you consider intelligence is a measure of a minds ability to adapt. Failing to interpret based on small errors in spelling etc. Is far from an indication of higher intelligence.