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frankPodmore frankPodmore @slrpnk.net

London-based writer. Often climbing.

Posts 83
Comments 621
A wobbly left and a wary right could cut the Labour vote with low turnout | Robert Ford
  • You know, mate, not every political argument you disagree with is 'gaslighting'. 'Gaslighting' is a form of emotional abuse. This article, which says 'It's possible that the Labour vote is quite soft', is not, and I kind of don't believe I have to say this, is not a form of emotional abuse. It is just an article saying 'It's possible that the Labour vote is quite soft'. It's actually critical of Labour, which hardly amounts to a polemic about the benefits of voting for them.

    And even within the long and storied genre of neurotic leftwing posting, I think 'The Guardian are deploying subliminal anti-IWW messaging' really stands out.

  • www.theguardian.com A wobbly left and a wary right could cut the Labour vote with low turnout | Robert Ford

    Labour may currently have a commanding lead, but a second lacklustre half to the campaign could lead some voters to stay at home, writes political scientist Robert Ford

    A wobbly left and a wary right could cut the Labour vote with low turnout | Robert Ford

    This is what's keeping me up at night, and also exactly why I think all the predictions of four or five hundred seats for Labour are overblown.

    7

    Is Keir Starmer really a ‘political robot’? If he is, he’s one that’s been programmed to win

    www.theguardian.com Is Keir Starmer really a ‘political robot’? If he is, he’s one that’s been programmed to win | Jonathan Freedland

    In office, something very different will be required, but steady caution has brought Labour to the brink of power, says Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland

    Is Keir Starmer really a ‘political robot’? If he is, he’s one that’s been programmed to win | Jonathan Freedland

    >The left is only able to demand that an apparently imminent Labour government be bolder in office because Starmer has got the party to the brink of victory – and has done it by doing the very things they opposed.

    Never have I 'this'ed so hard.

    2
    Nigel Farage’s Reform party overtakes Tories for first time in new YouGov poll
  • Not to be pedantic (ha-ha, just kidding, I love being pedantic) but this is still a statistical tie, rather than a real lead, which would have to be 3 points plus. Additionally, it's only one poll, and it's from YouGov, who have consistently shown lower votes for the Big Two and higher votes for the smaller parties than other polling companies, even before their methodology change, which increased the gap between them and other pollsters in that regard.

    What's more, Reform have consistently underperformed the polls in actual elections. Granted, Farage has increased their vote since he decided to stand, but the real elections suggest that he's increased it from a much lower basis than the polls would have us believe.

    Take this with a tablespoon of salt, is what I'm saying.

  • Nigel Farage’s Reform party overtakes Tories for first time in new YouGov poll
  • Anyone remember the Lib Dems coming second in polls in 2010?

  • Make no mistake: Labour's manifesto is a return to austerity
  • They can still raise CGT and fix council tax, that could plug some gaps.

  • Nigel Farage: I would lead ‘merged’ Reform-Conservative party
  • That'd be great, actually. Save us, Nuclear Joe.

  • Labour Party Manifesto 2024
  • This was also a concern when the minimum wage was introduced, but it never materialised. Hopefully that will be the case this time, too, but I suppose we'll have to see.

  • Labour Party Manifesto 2024
  • It is basically a matter of saying we do need big change, but we need to be careful when going about it. Which is not a bad balance to strike, IMO.

  • Labour @lemmy.world frankPodmore @slrpnk.net

    Labour Party Manifesto 2024

    labour.org.uk Change – The Labour Party

    Labour Party Manifesto 2024: At this election we can change Britain. We can stop the chaos, turn the page, and start to rebuild our country.

    Change – The Labour Party
    0

    Labour Party Manifesto 2024

    labour.org.uk Change – The Labour Party

    Labour Party Manifesto 2024: At this election we can change Britain. We can stop the chaos, turn the page, and start to rebuild our country.

    Change – The Labour Party

    The 2024 Labour Manifesto is now online!

    I am genuinely excited by loads of it, especially the green policies and the expansion of workers' rights, but probably the most important part of it is the stuff aimed at economic growth.

    What do you think? Love it? Hate it? Inspired to volunteer? Some more sensible, moderate emotion?

    13
    ‘I’m voting in the UK general election after decades abroad’ - BBC News
  • if I resign from my job should I still get to make demands of my former colleagues because I worked there for 30 years or still feel like an employee

    If you still had a pension fund owned or controlled by your previous company you would - and should - still have some say in how that was managed. Having said that, I don't think the analogy between 'citizen' and 'employee' works that well. Citizenship is a fundamental legal right enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human R ights, as are the rights and duties entailed by citizenship. It's not analogus to being an employee, which is fundamentally a transactional relationship.

  • Sky News Leaders "debate" discussion thread 🧵
  • Definitely. She should give him as hard a time as she gave Starmer (rightly so). Equal opportunities for all politicians to look silly!

  • Sky News Leaders "debate" discussion thread 🧵
  • Man, I hate that we're still having to deal with this Corbyn bullshit. Is she going to ask Sunak why he campaigned for Boris Johnson, known liar, to be Prime Minister, then served in his Cabinet?

  • Rishi Sunak says he went without 'lots of things' including Sky TV as a child
  • I was considering whether to mention that and I think on balance you're right that it did Get Done and I should have included it. Mea culpa. In my defence, it was world-historically shit.

  • Rishi Sunak says he went without 'lots of things' including Sky TV as a child
  • Now, you mention it, I do remember that. They used to do Marvel Hour on Saturday, with the X Men show. It was the tits.

  • Sky News Leaders "debate" discussion thread 🧵
  • I'm not watching it but I bet you a tenner I could live post it and no one could tell I wasn't.

  • Where to Start With Ursula K. LeGuin?
  • Earthsea is very good. It's kind of YA, but from before the term existed, so it should be good if you find your mind wandering when reading. Plus, it gets progressively darker and weirder as the series goes on.

  • Rishi Sunak says he went without 'lots of things' including Sky TV as a child
  • Cameron was the last PM who actually got things done. They were bad things, sure, but he did do them.

  • ‘I’m voting in the UK general election after decades abroad’ - BBC News
  • That's fair enough. As I said at the start, I was only semi-serious in my argument. I just didn't think the reasons you gave against it were particularly good!

  • Our first constituency poll has awful news for Britain’s Conservatives
  • That's the local election manifesto from earlier this year. I was baffled for a moment because I thought you'd somehow found the supposedly top secret GE manifesto before it launches tomorrow!

    The full manifesto will be published tomorrow but the broad outlines of the workers' rights expansion are here. It repeals a lot of the restrictions on trade union activity and gives workers more direct legal rights.

  • Our first constituency poll has awful news for Britain’s Conservatives
  • No.

    Labour are promising the biggest expansion of workers' rights in decades and the most ambitious environmental policies in history, while the Conservatives are promising a whole load of impossible tax cuts. It's totally fine, of course, to believe Labour could and should go further - and I agree. But to say they're proposing almost the same things is, as a matter of plain fact, untrue.

  • Rishi Sunak says he went without 'lots of things' including Sky TV as a child
  • He's older than Freeview. He'd only have had four channels, the poor soul.

  • What is going on with Hegel?

    I've read a fair bit of philosophy and Hegel is the first time I've felt like the stereotype of philosophers, where they're being deliberately obscure to hide the fact that their arguments don't actually follow, might actually apply.

    Now, most likely, I'm just being stupid, so I was wondering if anyone here actually got anything much out of Hegel and, if so, what?

    I'm most of the way through the Phenomenology of Spirit, if that's any help.

    3
    www.economist.com Our first constituency poll has awful news for Britain’s Conservatives

    Hartlepool is on track to lurch back to Labour in the election. Reform UK is in second spot

    Our first constituency poll has awful news for Britain’s Conservatives

    ... But great news for Britain!

    >Hartlepool is on track to lurch back to Labour in the election. Reform UK is in second spot

    Came across this via LabourList, so giving them a shout, too.

    14

    Rishi Sunak says he went without 'lots of things' including Sky TV as a child

    HOW IS HE SO BAD AT THIS?

    He should've said, 'Look, I was very fortunate growing up, there's no point denying that. What I want is for every child to have the opportunities I had, that's why our policy is to blah, blah first-time buyers blah tax, etc., unlike Labour who want blah VAT on private schools, blah'.

    Instead, he gets immediately rattled and starts gibbering at the first follow-up question. He is just the worst.

    By the way, this is the interview he thought was so important he had to run away from Normandy to do it. Apparently, it wasn't important enough for him to do any prep.

    31

    Former Scottish Greens co-leader Robin Harper joins Labour

    www.theguardian.com Rishi Sunak to publish Tory manifesto as party ads warn of Labour getting ‘massive majority’ – UK politics live

    Conservative manifesto expected to announce cut in national insurance and measures to help people buy homes

    Rishi Sunak to publish Tory manifesto as party ads warn of Labour getting ‘massive majority’ – UK politics live

    Harper said the vote was:

    >a now-or-never opportunity to remove the Tories from power. Only Labour is able to do this across the UK and only Labour has a plan to halt environmental destruction.

    I couldn't have put it better.

    3
    www.theguardian.com Climate scientist Susan Solomon: ‘Let’s not give up now – we’re right on the cusp of success’

    The US atmospheric chemist on why she doesn’t share the pessimism of most climate scientists, fixing the ozone layer, and why Jacques Cousteau is her hero

    Climate scientist Susan Solomon: ‘Let’s not give up now – we’re right on the cusp of success’

    Sharing this here as I feel it's relevant to the GE campaign.

    The evidence suggests that in about three weeks, we're going to give a landslide to the party promising the most radical green policies in this country's history. Environmentalism is just about to win the argument in Britain, as long as we vote for it on the 4th of July. Don't give in to cynicism and despair!

    14

    How the Tories managed to turn a row about tax plans into a row about their own integrity

    dividinglines.substack.com Fight!

    On the TV debate and its aftermath, and how the Tories managed to turn a row about £2,000 into a row about their own integrity

    Fight!

    I was pretty furious about Sunak lying, and I still am, but it's interesting and a little bit reassuring to hear a perspective suggesting it will only hurt his campaign.

    2

    We asked young Keir Starmer fans to explain his appeal | openDemocracy

    www.opendemocracy.net We asked young Keir Starmer fans to explain his appeal

    Jeremy Corbyn drew fresh-faced crowds at Glastonbury and beyond. But his successor has younger fans too – sort of

    We asked young Keir Starmer fans to explain his appeal

    Found this kind of interesting. I remember during the Corbyn era a lot of people saying it was actually better for politicians not to have devoted 'fans' of the kind Corbyn did. I'm inclined to agree.

    2
    www.theguardian.com Reality check: how do the leaders’ claims in TV debate stack up?

    Are NHS waiting lists falling, would family taxes be up by £2,000 a year under Labour – what is the truth amid the claims and counter-claims?

    Reality check: how do the leaders’ claims in TV debate stack up?

    Summary:

    >Would every family’s taxes go up by £2,000 under Labour?

    No.

    >Are NHS England waiting lists going down?

    It depends how you measure it, but mostly no.

    >Have the Conservatives abolished non-dom status?

    Not yet; they're phasing it out.

    >Will the UK be less energy-secure if it stops new North Sea drilling?

    No.

    So, that's four claims made by Sunak, none of them clearly true, two of them clearly false.

    Not surprising, really. He has no positive legacy so he has to make things up. And this is, after all, a man who was fined for partying in Downing Street while the rest of us were in lockdown.

    8
    www.theguardian.com UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says

    Labour and the Conservatives want to reduce national debt, but Resolution Foundation says promises ‘detached from reality’

    UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says
    16
    labourlist.org ‘How Labour’s New Deal for Working People will strengthen trade unions’ – LabourList

    Labour quietly released its finalised employment reforms on May 24th – although some parts of it, for instance a single status of worker and sectoral…

    ‘How Labour’s New Deal for Working People will strengthen trade unions’ – LabourList

    >It makes labour a more secure commodity, removes legal prohibitions on trade union activity, and provides unions with more rights.

    >Trade union pragmatism means that while the New Deal is far from perfect, the affiliated unions will now back it to the hilt, as they recognise how, if combined with effective and strategic action on their part, it has the potential to be transformative for their movement and reverse decades of decline. Within the comforting confines of labourism, all else is secondary.

    0
    www.theguardian.com ‘I love campaigning’: Angela Rayner on being back in action after being cleared in tax row

    Exclusive: Labour’s deputy leader talks openly about the impact on her of the Tory-led controversy about her past living arrangements

    ‘I love campaigning’: Angela Rayner on being back in action after being cleared in tax row
    1

    The rise of political misuse of the law: From Beergate to Angela Rayner’s tax affairs, politicians are using the police for electoral ends

    www.prospectmagazine.co.uk The rise of political misuse of the law

    From Beergate to Angela Rayner’s tax affairs, politicians are using the police for electoral ends

    The rise of political misuse of the law

    Odd to say 'politicians' in the headline when what is meant is 'Conservatives'.

    1

    Why I think Labour will let Diane Abbott run | Stephen Bush for the FT (£)

    I think he's right Abbott will run (and should), but mainly sharing for the handy historical reminder that, far from being some uniquely awful event in the annals of Labour party history, this sort of thing is unfortunately par for the course.

    As Bush puts it: 'Labour starts every short campaign with a row over its selections'. Similar bitter arguments happened in 2019 with candidates who won local selections but were then replaced by the NEC with someone loyal to the leader. Another egregious example Bush cites was Blair's NEC selecting a former Tory MP to run for a safe seat in 2001 when it became obvious he wouldn't hang on to his own (can you imagine if Starmer had done that with Natalie Elphicke?).

    Labour's selection system is rubbish (the members have too little deselection power and the NEC have too much). On the other hand, given that our system of government relies on having lots of parliamentary allies, it's totally unsurprising that leaders are keen to get as many allies as possible elected to parliament. The NEC is a particularly blunt instrument they use to do that.

    3
    www.politicshome.com There's little enthusiasm for Labour. Does it matter?

    People may dislike the Government but it is difficult to see how Labour win a landslide when there is such little enthusiasm for them as an alterna...

    There's little enthusiasm for Labour. Does it matter?
    17
    www.theguardian.com Junior doctors to go on strike in England from 27 June to 2 July

    British Medical Association announces fresh industrial action in long-running dispute over pay

    Junior doctors to go on strike in England from 27 June to 2 July
    2