China appears to have suspended spy balloon program after February shootdown, US intel believes
China appears to have suspended spy balloon program after February shootdown, US intel believes
China appears to have suspended its surveillance balloon program following a major diplomatic incident earlier this year, when one of the country’s high-altitude spy balloons transited the United States, multiple sources familiar with US intelligence assessments told CNN.
China appears to have suspended its surveillance balloon program following a major diplomatic incident earlier this year, when one of the country’s high-altitude spy balloons transited the United States, multiple sources familiar with US intelligence assessments told CNN.
US officials believe that Chinese leaders have made a deliberate decision not to launch additional balloons since the one over the US was shot down by American fighter jets in February, the sources said. The US has not observed any new launches since the episode occurred.
The apparent suspension of the program comes as both the US and China have sought to stabilize an increasingly tense relationship. Asked for comment on the balloon program, Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu told CNN that the February episode was “unexpected” and “isolated.”
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The article repeatedly uses the adjectives "surveillance", "spy" to refer to the balloon, even though there is no source confirming that was the device's purpose, and notably it did not send any data home during its transit over the US. Forensic analysis only revealed meteorological equipment, antennas (which according to leaks were just regular communication antennas), basic steering devices and solar panels. Notably, no firmware analysis was mentioned, which would have easily confirmed its status as a surveillance balloon.
The other three balloons downed a week later were confirmed not to be spy balloons; the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade claimed one, one research institution from the US (I don't remember) claimed another. They were the kind of balloons that the Air Forces typically don't take down, but apparently just decided to in a very short timeframe.
Maybe they initially feared it was a spy balloon, discovered in a few days it wasn't, then tried to alleviate the diplomatic hit by destroying every other "unidentified" balloon in their airspace, Chinese or not. And the PR mitigation for the local population is here: the balloon must have been for surveillance. This is the only hypothesis that makes sense to me (edit: feel free to provide others or point out flaws in my reasoning).
Maybe the reason no firmware analysis was mentioned was because it was classified because it was a spy balloon.
Since they already state they "suspect it was a spy balloon" and anyone would assume they would have performed such an analysis, them mentioning either that they performed it or that the analysis revealed it was a spy balloon would not reveal any otherwise secret information. But not mentioning either seems like an indication that the analysis was performed and did not reveal anything of use. Also, it does not explain why they destroyed three regular weather balloons right after the analysis.
You're comparing a long distance balloon from China with university projects local to the US. The Chinese balloon was massive, univesity projects are generally much smaller in scale. This was also the only Chinese balloon that made it into US airspace, but it is far from the only one of these balloons that have been launched.
I hate defending anyone from that shithole instance that is Lemmygrad… however the most recent interviews from our top generals here in the states say that the balloon after assessment didn’t collect any intel, was actually off the entire time and they suspect that it wasn’t actually meant to be over the states. There’s no doubt it wasn’t a massive balloon, but the story was really over blown because someone saw it, snapped a photo, and the press and social media took off with it.
Here’s the CBS Sunday Morning video about it.
It’s not like as if we here in the states don’t also launch massive balloons, or hell massive amounts of aircraft over others airspace collecting data. Sometimes that data isn’t even for military or surveillance purposes, sometimes it’s dual purpose, and sometimes it’s all military/surveillance.
Don't let facts get in the way of outrage. This balloon story (among others) will be repeated as justification for whatever actions are taken against China in the future.
I'm not performing any comparison. The US Air Force destroyed the Chinese balloon, then analyzed it, then destroyed three non-suspicious balloons. I understand the reasons why the Chinese balloon was suspicious, and I understand the reasons the other three balloons were not. Also, one of those three balloons (presumably the one from a research institution, but I could not find any source linking identified balloons with statements made prior about them) was of a comparable size to the Chinese balloon. My point is simply that the US never takes down its own balloons, and much less in such a short time, right after analyzing a balloon that they found suspicious. If you have a better hypothesis, I'll be glad to hear it.
Just curious... if it had 'basic steering devices,' why didn't they steer it away from the U.S.?
Either they sent it there on purpose to provocate a respone, which would at least make some sense, or it malfunctioned, which also makes sense since the balloon did not send any communications during that time.
Edit: on further thought, I think if it had broken down, they could simply have reported it. It's likely they sent a weather balloon on purpose, either to test the waters or create bad PR in the US.
Because they were too basic? E.g. out of range of the Chinese controllers.
Why would the Chinese be able to control a balloon any less or more than a satellite?
It’s a balloon. The primary ‘steering’ is the high altitude wind stream it is in.
According to a recently published textbook titled “Stratospheric Balloons: Science and Commerce at the Edge of Space” by Manfred von Ehrenfried, the Thunderhead balloon system is steerable and can be flown individually or in constellations. The Thunderhead is a super-pressure balloon (SPB) with a gondola that contains a payload, flight system, and solar panels. The balloon itself is pumpkin-shaped and composed of polyethylene. The system has two configurations: the Thunderhead 200 SPB with a 64,000 cubic foot volume, or the 400 SPB with a 400,000 cubic foot volume. The 200 SPB has a maximum altitude of 50,000 to 60,000 feet, while the 400 SPB has a maximum altitude of up to 92,000 feet.
If the military can do it, so can a company like SpaceX.