Big voter turnout this year benefited Republicans, contradicting conventional political wisdom
Big voter turnout this year benefited Republicans, contradicting conventional political wisdom
The 2024 presidential election featured sky-high turnout, approaching the historic levels of the 2020 contest.
Summary
The 2024 presidential election saw record-high turnout nearing 2020 levels, with over 152 million ballots cast.
Donald Trump won both the Electoral College and the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes, defying conventional wisdom that high turnout benefits Democrats.
Key swing states like Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania had increased turnout, with Trump outperforming Kamala Harris in battlegrounds despite her strong voter mobilization.
The GOP’s focus on early and mail voting, as well as targeting infrequent voters, proved effective, signaling a shift in Republican turnout strategies in the Trump era.
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Trump basically got the same number of votes as 2020. Someone else didn't show up.
No he didn't. At last count, he's sitting at 77.4 million votes, which is a little more than 3 million more votes than he got in 2020 (74.2).
Compared to the nearly 11m dems who stayed home this election, it’s not that much.
Where did you get that 11 million number? Vote totals so far are a little more than 5 million short of 2020. Everyone keeps talking about 11 million, 15 million, 20 million people who stayed home and I think it's frankly a way to cope with the hard and gross truth that the country shifted right. Some people stayed home this year, but from all the sources I can see, it's nowhere near 11 million, and the fascist candidate increasing his vote totals every year is very alarming. I get people who don't want to face that. It's scary as hell, especially if you're in an out group. In my traditionally deeply blue state, the split gap between Harris and The Fanta Menace was like 55/45. That's WAY too close for comfort and while people staying home is a problem, it's not the main problem this time around.
First of all, we had close to 100 million eligible non-voters. “Didn’t vote” is definitely the winner of this election. Secondly, those numbers are from projections and statistics. At least 10 million democrats who should have voted, didn’t.
How do you know they were Democrats and not independents?
The people that always stay home weren't gonna come out. They never do. 2020 is said to have had historic levels of turnout and it had 2/3rds of eligible voters coming out to vote. I wouldn't count on that last third who always sits out to suddenly realize they're screwing themselves and everyone else. I still don't know where the 10 million number is coming from. Who's projections and statistics? Would it be the same people who projected that despite a close race, Harris would be the likely winner? I'm not sure they're all that credible at the moment. I think people shifted right and I think that sucks a lot. I wish I had a solution, but I don't. There were any number of good reasons to come out and vote for Harris, or at least against FatPutin, but here we are.
Harris had 73 million votes. Biden had 81 million. The population and consequently the number of democratic voters has also increased by several million.
If you do the very basic arithmetic, there are at least 10 million democratic voters who didn’t turn out in 2024. Hope that helps.
You know, I wasn't rude to you, so there isn't any reason for your condescending tone.
That's possible and what a lot of people are saying.
It's also possible people who voted for Biden voted for Trump instead.
Also voters died. Old age, COVID, random accidents
"Big voter turnout" to me would still be wrong.
155+ million voters in 2020Population increases by roughly 6 million
Less than 150 million voters in 2024.
If we consider decreasing voter turnout high turnout, sure, it was high. That said, yes some voters likely swayed, but I'd like 80-90% voter turnout to be considered high, but we never get that.
Less than 150 million voters in 2024.
It's more than 150 million. The current count is about 153 million, and there's still more left to count in California.
11 days later and still counting, jeez. There as to be better ways to do that.
This is literally the third highest turnout since 1900 by VEP, only behind 2020 and 1960. This is hardly a low turnout election. The last 'low turnout' election was 2000, most of the ones since have been average or slightly above.