The gender wars continue 🥹
The gender wars continue 🥹
This is not my personal opinion, I know Gen Z men who voted for Harris. But the voter demographics really speak for themselves, and maybe now people will look at the radicalization of young men as a serious (but solvable) issue.
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I was actually wondering how the gender gap changed in this election, and it wasn't at all what I was expecting:
According to exit polls by CNN Trump gained +2% of the male vote, and +5% of the female vote compared to 2020 - though women were still more likely to support Harris, of course.
An analysis by the AP found similar results, with the support from men under 45 increasing +7%, and women under 45 +6%, while for older men it decreased -1%, and for older women stayed the same.
Surprisingly, Trump's support among racial minority groups increased while white and older Americans increased support for Harris.
After thorough analysis and much thought I have ultimately concluded that I have absolutely no fucking clue what is going on with American politics.
It’s the economy. Look at the numbers for voters without a college degree, rural voters, and lower income voters. Trump won all of these groups. In the WaPo exit polls the issues are included, not just the demographics. For voters who think the economy is the most importantly issue and for voters who think the US economy is doing badly: Trump dominated.
The Democrats continue to fail at shedding their reputation for being out of touch with working class Americans. The only income bracket that Harris won was the $100,000+ group. This tells us that the Democrats are an upper middle class and upper class party.
So they voted to have their faces eaten
They probably feel like they're fucked either way and have nothing going for them. That makes it easier to side with the dude spouting hate. If I was that age I'd probably be in the same boat as them because being angry and hateful feels good and it took me a while to get that under control. I certainly didn't have any actual hope things would improve after this election but I did vote for Kamala because she at least wasn't spouting hateful shit. Not that it helped because I live in a dark red district. If there hadn't been an abortion amendment on the ballot I'd have probably skipped this one.
Anger doesn't reason.
Wow, that’s crazy.
I wonder how much of that is demonization of unions. If a big piece of Democrat support for working class is support for unions, does that actually matter when so many people of all incomes are taught to hate unions?
Then there’s the student loan fiasco. By all rights the Biden administration should have gotten kudos for finding so many ways to attempt student loan forgiveness, and for focusing it on lower income people (for example, people in income based repayment with less than $10k left). However the right succeeded in making that seem elitist or not independent and the left seemed to blame Democrats for not being more successful in the face of Republican obstruction
Trump grew with educated voters, too, though.
Year to year comparisons can be viewed here.
Strangely enough, he lost educated white voters compared to before. He won white people with college degrees the previous two times, but lost them this time.
I guess that means that the shift in minority support cut across education levels.
Oh interesting, CNN had different data before, but maybe its updated for more votes now? If you're a data fan, The Guardian has a cool visual analysis: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2024/nov/06/the-key-swings-that-handed-trump-the-white-house-a-visual-analysis
the real metric that matters is that way way less people voted. not many people changed their votes from last time. many people are simply convinced to stay home, and as always, that results in a Republican win. the propaganda that was most effective was all of the "Kamala is no true Scotsman, so you should just not vote". i believe this was lost by the people that "refused to vote for genocide". i think that's what accelerated the genocide.
I really doubt double-digit millions of voters sat out because of Gaza.
Kamala's vote total is roughly in line with what would be expected looking at 2008, 2012, and 2016. The massive turnout in 2020 on the Dem side appears to be an abberation - it was unique circumstances with COVID and all that. On the Republican side, Trump ran slightly ahead of his 2020 performance, and well ahead of 2016.
It's basic electoral politics: Trump has succeeded at expanding his base of support and turning them out to vote reliably. The Democrats have not. No single issue is responsible for that.
You can blame protests or Gaza or third parties or whoever else you want - the truth remains that the Dem base from the Obama years is not large enough and not appropriately distributed to win an election against Trump's base; whatever else you think of the man, he has been very good at gaining and retaining support.
but all of the same things could be said about Biden. he won. what changed?
2020 was different from 2024. It was a very unique set of circumstances with an election in the middle of pandemic, with an incumbent who was never broadly popular, amidst utterly terrible economic conditions.
Still, Trump's base showed up, just as they did on Tuesday.
Biden had the benefit of all the unlikely voters not being able to ignore the country burning down around them, he got a lot of dissatisfied people who don't pay attention to politics to come out.
Harris didn't, she got the Dem base. People broadly dissatisfied at the state of things probably voted Trump since he isn't the incumbent.
Just how it works - voters don't have to be rational.
True but I think that's probably more of deep red state residents seeing their vote not matter live on TV every fucking election. I've seen the federal turnout but I haven't compared state to state turnout yet and I would imagine that's probably a better metric since like 30% of the population live where their vote makes no difference.
After thorough analysis and much thought I have ultimately concluded that I have absolutely no fucking clue what is going
The statements above seem to suggest it's no longer about identity politics. The habitual way of labeling people no longer explains political results.
Harris just offered little to get voters excited. Mostly ran as a status-quo candidate. Racial minorities, for the most part, are not happy with the status-quo. By being ignored, it allowed right-wing propaganda on media (social and traditional) to do its work. One thing I've heard is, "well, at least Trump sent me some checks." Many people I've talked to weren't happy with Biden's involvement with the crime bill, or Harris' being a DA that proudly prosecuted cannabis offenders. Some people I've talked to liked that Trump pardoned Lil Wayne, Kodak Black, and that woman who had an extremely long sentence for cannabis. One person I've talked to was upset about "libtards" removing black faces from grocery store products (using Aunt Jemima as an example). Some younger men I know (some racial minorities) have started going deep into the Jordan Peterson, Fresh and Fit, Andrew Tate, etc pipeline, which I'm guessing is rooted in sexual insecurity.
Yep, Trump's popularity went down with white voters (albeit only 2-4 points depending on male or female) but gained ground in Latino and "other unidentified" minorities. He also actually lost older voters too.
But I think the biggest surprise for me is that Trump gained more of the new voters than Harris. And while I don't have a gender breakdown from that, I wonder if a lot of those were males.
The guy that can't shut the fuck up about eliminating minorities, got minority votes? If America is that suicidal, why can't they just take a collective bullet? Would save the rest of the world a lot od trouble...
So many pundits were leaning into the gender gap so hard, I really expected a blowout landslide for Harris. This is the last time I pay any attention to commentators, forecasters or polls. My current theory of American politics is that we've become a full-on Idiocracy. There are always idiots in any society, but I really feel like if we can elect the Orange Sack of Shit a second time, our collective stupidity has passed a tipping point. We almost made it to 250 years too. But nothing lasts forever. Hang onto your seat, I don't expect swirling down the drain to be fun.
Some commentators were even publishing absolutely ridiculous cope to explain why the polls were 50/50. The media was working overtime to stick their heads in the sand for some reason.
I think corporate media wants every race to be neck-and-neck because that gets more ad views. I put the results of this election to Trump's stunning con man ability (his only real ability) and to millions of Americans being fucking idiots.