in which yud bets $150k (at 150:1 odds) that aliens don't exist
in which yud bets $150k (at 150:1 odds) that aliens don't exist
he takes a couple pages to explain why he know that sightings of UFOs aren't alien because he can simply infer how superintelligent beings will operate + how advanced their technology is. he then undercuts his point by saying that he's very uncertain about both of those things, but wraps it up nicely with an excessively wordy speech about how making big bets on your beliefs is the responsible way to be a thought leader. bravo
I should probably also say: Kids, don't try this at home ($150K bets at 150:1 odds) unless you have read the literature on expert overconfidence, and tested your own calibration repeatedly.
I heard Yud got some ribs removed so he could “test his own calibration”
lol i missed that in the thread
expert overconfidence
pretty sure it's just regular overconfidence here. unless yud is claiming to be an expert on fucking aliens
Broke: "There's no way UFOs are aliens duh"
Woke: "P/S/B: UFOs are almost certainly not aliens, and this is knowable with study and thought. ... the aliens would have harvested the Solar System for matter and energy ... they could literally just rewrite our brains ... the supervast majority of probable alien intellects ... GPT-4 ... covid ... the way experts and authorities would do it in a saner world, by betting $150,000 ... My present worldview is a grim one ... I'm no superintelligent alien myself ... on Earth, of course, it falls to me instead ... Kids, don't try this at home ... since this counterparty is an unknown they paid their money in advance ... UFOs are held in disrepute ... maybe because blah blah Prime Directive or whatever ... not something we generated as a convergent instrumental strategy by blind forward reasoning ... namely religion ... posing as Yeshua does not represent an optimal alien strategy ... being only clever as Eliezer thinking for five minute ... "Skeptics" will of course claim that all the Dreams are just psychosomatic ... the mysterious Being of Light who appears in dreams ... no recording the millionth binary digit of pi in 1000 BCE ... I conclude that UFOs are not a minimally interventionist, doubt-leaving strategy which maximizes the status of any particular or general aliens in the eyes of humanity."
(P.S. What does P/S/B mean?)
Page, Sex, Blocation
(P.S. What does P/S/B mean?)
pastrami over salami over bread. Yud was hungry and now I am too
e: I call it a substack
Removing word limits from tweets is such a disservice to humanity.
Noob here. Finding the aesthetics of LW interesting. White, serif fonts... purity, beautiful rational authority.
I forget how it used to look, but the current design falls into the Wikipedia uncanny valley for me, most likely on purpose
Did Yud pay for Twitter, or is he blue-checked for some other reason?
Both! He was verified before, but you have to pay for long-form posting. Which he really shouldn't given how much dumber, rambling and incoherent his long form posting reveals him to be.
This word salad ("supervast majority" - wat?) seems to be inspired by this LW post
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/
The intersection of UFO nuts and rats should be glorious. The fact that Yud takes this seriously instead of just ignoring this idiot is proof that SF brainworms are the foundation for this community's worldview.
im mad