Biden Gains High-Turnout Voters, and Trump Gains Low-Turnout Voters (Gift Article)
Biden Gains High-Turnout Voters, and Trump Gains Low-Turnout Voters (Gift Article)
Inside the unusual dynamic shaping the 2024 campaign.
A new electoral divide has emerged in America.
This divide is not rooted in race, geography, age or education. Instead, it is engagement in democracy itself.
I thought this article had some interesting findings that are especially relevant after the latest polls from 538 and the Economist suggested that Trump had a slight edge this coming November. Since 2020:
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Biden has mostly seen an increase in support from demographics typically associated with high-turnout voters such as those who are college educated, live in suburbia, women, and even some older and white voters.
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Trump, in contrast, has generally seen an increase in demographics associated with low-turnout voters such as those with no college education and men. He has also slightly increased his support amongst black and Hispanic youths.
Hopefully, this means Trump’s increased support does not translate into actual votes on November 5th. For Trump to win another term would be a complete disaster not just for the United States, but also the world.
You should note that while polling shows Trump's edge to be slight, historically he outperforms his polls by about 8 points.
So an apparent tie should be considered 'leading' for Trump when you consider that a significant portion of people that show up to vote for him are under represented by standard polling data. This 8% was observed in both the 2016 and 2020 results.
Yes. I usually give Trump the edge by at least 4 points, depending on the state/poll in question. He has an annoyingly consistent ability to beat the polls on election day.
He also demonstrates how popular populist, anti-establishment candidates are in the US. Even if he does lose in November, I fear he will have a lasting impact on US politics and it will not be good.
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