What economists don't know - Why industrial policy will disappoint

https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/what-economists-dont-know

@neoliberal

What do economists know? - When simple solutions are best

https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/what-do-economists-know

@neoliberal

American Feudalism - A liberalism that divides humanity into a master class and a slave class deserves an asterisk as “white liberalism.”

https://www.liberalcurrents.com/american-feudalism/

"Acquainting ourselves with the early black liberals ... reveals throughlines to modern liberal ideas that we have failed to appreciate, leaving those modern ideas prone to charges of inauthenticity and even illiberalism from more conservative wings of the liberal tradition."

@neoliberal

2024's spread is almost identical to 2020's. just without Florida(which was still considered a swing state then). 2016 was a broad year with something like a dozen states considered gettable, and a couple states that ended up flipping weren't even supposed to be swing states. 2012 only had a handful, I think even fewer than we have now, like 4 or 5. 2008 was another broad year.

Only way it can change is either if a swing state tilts hard enough to no longer be one(Michigan being too blue) , or a formerly safe state tilts enough to be up for grabs again(something like Virginia or Texas)

Washington — U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan has made public a key filing from special counsel Jack Smith that includes evidence compiled in his investigation into former President Donald Trump's alleged efforts to subvert the transfer of presidential power after the 2020 election.

Libertarian Party has been gradually weakening and had a massive internal schism in 2022 leading to sections of the hardliners defecting to Trump and many of the moderates ending up with RFK Jr(who dropped out to endorse Trump). Nominee is a Left Libertarian and for reasons they weren't even listed as a third party candidate on most polls or polling conglomerates until September as they weren't in the Top 5 which further hurt their outreach.

Green Party has bounced back as they got Jill Stein's namecred and benefited from being above the Libertarians in the rankings thanks to RFK.

Constitution Party(hard right) has been bleeding support since the Obama era, most of them have been leaving for Tea Party Republicans and the remainder is being siphoned off by Peter Solski's Moderate Christian Party.

The PSL is the fastest growing third party right now, overtaking the Constituion Party in 2020 for 3rd place and set to potentially overtake the Greens and Libertarians if they continue infighting and bleeding support.

Cornel West exists.

Across both 538, RCP, and a few other reliable polling sites as of late the general overall trend is- North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona all go red, with the former weakening the most as it got the least investment. (his checks out as the third party balance nationally has shifted to be less hostile to Republicans. Get rid of third parties completely in 2020 for both sides partitioning the voters and Trump wins Georgia and Arizona then too)

Michigan has been very strongly blue, strongest in 2020 and second strongest in 2016(Nevada is slowly trending Red so ignore that). Wisconsin was super swingy the last two elections, having extremely bad polling and being the reddest of the rust belt both times. However, Tim Walz strengthens this state more than any other while losing Biden and not picking Shapiro weakens Pennsylvania more than most, so barring another massive upset it's going to be bluer than PA, solidly blue in most polls.

Nevada and Pennsylvania are the swingy states. Nevada has a slow weak red trend, Pennsylvania has had a ton of investment and stung from the Biden dropout. Nevada might have mattered in the Nebraska Law Change scenario, but without that it's worthless. Both have had tight polling for a while, albeit Nevada has more consistently leaned blue while Pennsylvania leaned red for a bit pre-debate.

Of course the polls could be wrong again. A 2022 style error and Democrats sweep the swing states and maybe pickup a pink state. A 2020 style error and everything not Michigan falls Red. 2016 level error means Michigan and Virginia too. But I don't see it happening. They've had two national elections to correct for Trump. They've had one big election post-Dobbs and several smaller ones to correct for that error(which was smaller than the Trump errors and made in the shadow of Post-2020 poll corrections). This is the first time both those factors are going head to head nationally and the pollsters have had a chance to weigh both of them. I don't expect badly wrong polls. But just a half a point off determines the election. Being dead on correct right now favors the democrats, but it didn't the day before the debate. It could go either way.

:)

The new Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse—populism, nativism, isolationism, and protectionism—tend to ride together, and they are challenging the political center.

[…]

Generating support for an internationalist foreign policy requires a president to paint a vivid picture of what that world would be like without an active United States.

Geothermal energy may be approaching its Mitchell moment. George Mitchell, a scrappy independent oilman, is known as the father of fracking. Nearly three decades ago, he defied Big Oil and the conventional wisdom of his industry by making practical the hitherto uneconomic technique of pumping liquids and sands into the ground to force out gas and oil from shale rock and other tight geological formations. The enormous increase in productivity that resulted, known as the shale revolution, has transformed the global hydrocarbon business.

“Instant polls suggested viewers judged Ms Harris the victor. Her performance delighted Democrats, and she supplied far more of the punchy moments that tend to get highlighted in subsequent newscasts and shared online.”

>The research by More in Common said the party struggled with relatability, particularly in Liberal Democrat areas, by focusing on topics “which excite the base, or the highly politically engaged” but were distant from ordinary people’s lives.

The discussion thread is for casual and off-topic conversation that doesn’t merit its own submission.

“Because of the danger that Donald Trump poses, not only am I not voting for Donald Trump, but I will be voting for Kamala Harris,” Cheney said in a video of remarks posted to X. The university separately provided a clip of Cheney’s remarks to NBC News.

Famine is ravaging Sudan.

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) - which claims to be the government of Sudan - took a small step towards alleviating that famine earlier this week by allowing 15 UN aid lorries to cross the border from Chad to bring food to the starving.

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — A Brazilian Supreme Court justice on Wednesday threatened to shut down the local operations of X, formerly Twitter, unless its billionaire owner Elon Musk names a legal representative in Brazil within 24 hours.

While abortion remains one of the most contentious issues separating the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates, a new survey finds that regardless of political affiliation, nearly 15% of women of reproductive age have had an abortion at some point in their life, while three-quarters of those same women believe abortion should be legal in most or all cases.

The Arizona Police Association announced Monday it is throwing its weight behind Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) in the Arizona Senate race, despite endorsing Republican Kari Lake in her gubernatorial bid last cycle.