Harris did better than Biden in the key swing states. Be mad at the people who turned out for Trump.
Those of you downvoting me, look at the vote totals for swing states in 2020 vs 2024.
It is insane to me that "be mad at the people who voted for Trump" is a hot take.
Look at the number of eligible voters that didn't vote. Their point is 100% valid, just like it has been for pretty much every election. This time is just extra inexcusable because of what we've collectively lost.
That does not involve statistical predictions based on previous elections. As far as I know, only one other convicted felon ran for president- Eugene V. Debs. Considering he was a socialist, his chances were slim.
I’m sure you know that the sample size of two is not really something you can base election predictions on. You can base them on voting patterns every four years. Really, every two.
If predictions based on previous history didn’t work, neither would weather reports.
The big issue here is that you seem to think making predictions based on historical statistics has to always be right or always be wrong, rather than right far more often than wrong.
2024 Trump turnout beat 2020 Biden turnout in the swing states. People are mad that Dems didn't turn out, but my point is that Harris did better in some of the swing states or nearly as well in the other ones, and Trump beat the 2020 numbers. It wasn't that Dems didn't turn out in these crucial states, it's that more Trump ones did. I don't know why you thought leaving Trump's votes out of your analysis was wise cause him winning was kind of the entire point.
I don't know why people are so eager to be mad at anyone other than fucking Trump voters. They actively chose this, they spoke resoundingly clear. All these excuses, all these reasons, all these scenarios. It's insanity to me. Desi Lydic nailed exactly how I'm feeling: I don't care why she lost, I care why he won.
I’m only offering you the raw data to illustrate that your initial point, as you wrote it, was incorrect. Biden did slightly better than Harris in the swing state total. Trump seemed irrelevant to your earlier point.
It seems your point should have simply been that more people voted for a Trump than Harris. And, as the numbers suggest, it’s plausible many of them had switched from Biden to Trump. So, if you want to “be mad” at anyone, it would be either Biden’s administration or Harris’ campaign.
Although, I feel it’s worth more of our time focusing on the last bit - how is it that people are so disconnected from reality that Trump was ever a consideration. How is it that practically everyone believes everything they hear or read and use it to enforce their narrative?
If I’m mad at anything, it’s boisterous claims being spread through social media without anyone caring enough to determine if the claim is true or not.
I mean, yes they do? If Harris had won those swing states, she'd have won the EC. And her turnout was higher than Biden's. It's just that Trump's was even higher.