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I firmly believe that a "crustless ice mantle" meets the definition of an ocean.

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Teamsters president Sean O’Brien speaks at the GOP convention as his union flirts with endorsing Trump - The Boston Globe
  • Teamsters were part of the AFL as a “skilled labor union” pre-great-depression. What’s a “skilled laborer”? You can usually tell by their gender and skin color. Teamsters were also anti-communist and had several leaders who were anti-strikes. The Teamsters were a milquetoast union option that the bosses preferred to a real union as a compromise with organizing workers. They grew quickly.

    Merging with the CIO cleaned a lot of this up. The symbol of the AFL-CIO is that of a white hand labeled “AFL” shaking hands with a black hand labeled “CIO”.

    Teamsters historically have been an imperfect “foot-in-the-door” union. Something to begin the process of organizing and collective bargaining and giving workers a voice, while being willing to compromise to keep power and stay alive. Don’t look to the teamsters if you want radical change. Look to them to expand the reach of labor unions to white, blue-collar workers that are skeptical of more radical/socialist unions.

  • Somebody Fucked Up
  • Not only that, but having the entire executive branch come down to a single elected ticket is a clumsy and low-resolution choice for voters. Especially when you consider that there are only two tickets (blue and red) to vote for.

    The position of the president is superfluous and should be eliminated. A president hires people to run the executive branch. That’s how senile Biden can be so effective. He hires well. The American people should be hiring (directly electing) the cabinet, the judicial branch, the top generals, the top ambassadors, etc. Those people could vote to approve/veto bills, or do other jobs currently reserved for the president. This would mean that our whole executive branch isn’t getting replaced every 4-8 years. I bet that if people were voting for each cabinet position independently, we would see a lot more specialized candidates running, and room for third-party break-ins to smaller positions. Each cabinet position is focused on specific issues that relate to that position. This gives voters more granular control over the executive branch. Have each position up for election on a staggered timeline so not everyone is up for election at once. Force the races to be focused on specific issues by making the election be about a specific department. Maybe AOC could win Labor Secretary, but that race shouldn’t have a foreign policy discussion. Maybe Bernie could run for Secretary of State as a referendum on pulling out of the Middle East. If we are electing people to specific jobs, we can focus on those jobs instead of all the other bullshit that the election cycle focuses on. Replace the presidency with a document/constitution that outlines the checks and balances, roles and responsibilities of each of these positions.

  • A NYTimes photographer took a picture of Trump a moment before he was struck by a bullet
  • I did this in another thread. Using the values for the speed of a bullet from an AR-style rifle quoted from the NYT, and the shutter speed that the NYT photographer claimed, the streak is about 3x too long for the streak to only be the bullet.

    In that comment I said that I was skeptical of what we were looking at. Now I wonder if part of the streak is also a refraction effect from the air displaced by the bullet, allowing the streak to be longer than the velocity*exposuretime calculation predicts? I’m not sure!

  • Gunshots reportedly fired at Donald Trump rally - as former president rushed off stage
  • Thanks! With the information in the article you just linked, I am now very suspicious that this is a picture of the bullet, where I previously thought it was plausible from my low-precision estimate. From the article:

    “If the gunman was firing an AR-15-style rifle, the .223-caliber or 5.56-millimeter bullets they use travel at roughly 3,200 feet per second when they leave the weapon’s muzzle,’’ Mr. Harrigan said. “And with a 1/8,000th of a second shutter speed, this would allow the bullet to travel approximately four-tenths of a foot while the shutter is open.”

    Same procedure, but an AR-15 shoots a bullet faster than the speed for a generic bullet that I used, and the shutter speed was faster because it was a fancy NYT camera. 3200ft/s is almost exactly 1000m/s. The 1/8000s shutter speed is the fact that seems the most reliable, assuming that the photographer knew what setting their camera was on.

    What I disagree with is that that streak is only 0.4 feet long. The average size of a human male head (brow to back of head) is about 20cm, or 8in per this image from Wikipedia. The streak from the bullet in the image is about twice the size of Trump’s head, or 40cm/16in. Due to projection effects, this is a lower bound on the path of the bullet during the 1/8000s exposure. This puts a lower bound on the speed of 3200m/s. This is over three times the velocity of an AR-15, at minimum. Either this was some super-high-powered rifle to fire the bullet that fast, the shutter speed is misquoted (or a misleading representation of the exposure time), or this isn’t picture of the bullet.

    Thanks for providing the data to make me suspicious that this is an image of the bullet.

  • Gunshots reportedly fired at Donald Trump rally - as former president rushed off stage
  • That isolated tweet with the pic doesn’t claim to be from NYT or a NYT photographer. I’ve never heard of this “spectator index”. Here is the AP collection of photos from the event.

    If I do assume that’s a bullet, let’s test if the size of the streak makes sense. A bullet travels at about 750m/s. That streak (using Trump’s head for scale) is about 50cm long, or 1/2 meter. A 750 m/s bullet travels 1/2 meter in 1/1500 seconds. When you consider projection effects (we might not be looking with a line-of-sight perpendicular to the bullet’s trajectory), we expect the length and time used in my above calculations to be lower bounds, with the true answer probably being within about a factor of 3 of that bound. This means that this image only makes sense as a bullet if the shutter speed is between 1/1500 and 1/500 seconds. That lines up with this website’s recommendation of 1/1000 second exposure time for bright outdoor shots.

    Either a very good fake that considered the kinematics, or this is a real image of the bullet.

  • MEGA THREAD - Trump shot but safe, 2 others killed at PA rally
  • There is a difference between background-level bulk sniffing and someone-here-maybe-incited-violence targeted sniffing. The former is data collection, which is passive in the form practiced by “the feds”. The latter is data connection, putting effort into connecting a subset of the data that has been collected to form a story. Data connections need a framing, a nucleation seed, an impetus for why the feds might think such a connection is interesting or relevant or worth adding to their story about a larger incident. Collecting data is cheap and done in bulk, partly because it can be done passively and partly because the US govt paid a lot of money on storage and collection mechanisms. Connecting data is something that requires a lot more time, effort, patience, and vetting to make sure you are doing it right.

    Or you can give the job to generative AI and hope it doesn’t hallucinate that someone innocent is guilty; with a large enough data pool (ie the internet, reality, what-have-you) it’s possible to select a misleading subset to support whatever hallucination you want.

    It’s easy to do wrong, which is exactly why you don’t want the feds sniffing around. Especially now that they have the tools to automate doing it wrong, and might not know how to use them yet.

  • Wood smells like we should be able to eat it, but we can't.
  • It only gets boiled down to pure sugar. You boil off or break down a lot of the aromatics and volatiles in the original sap to make syrup. It gets processed by boiling to concentrate the sugar and reduce the presence of the rest of what the tree was living on. Maple sap does not become “pure sugar” (maple syrup) until after it gets the good stuff processed out.

    This Cleveland Health Clinic page on maple sap mentions the presence of abscisic acid, a plant hormone with anti-diabetic properties, and polyphenols that help you manage inflammation.

  • Trump Fumbles Repeatedly in Terrifying Speech at Florida Rally
  • Yeah, I think that the media is reaching to show that Trump is also unfit after they spent so freaking out about the Biden debate.

    The problem is that Trump is unfit for very different reasons than Biden is unfit.

    Trump had some run-on sentences in those clips, and a lot of what he was saying was either false or terrible policy, but I understood every point that he was ineloquently making, even if I thought they were bad points.

    Biden’s debate performance, on the other hand, had several moments where I don’t know what he was trying to say.

    Trump in these clips changed topics within the scope of the larger argument that he was making: “America is broken and only I can fix it”. I disagree with his argument and several underlying pieces of evidence. He wandered between very different points without clearly transitioning. In spite of that, he was still coherent and I could immediately understand what he was saying.

    Biden answered a question about abortion by talking about how Trump thinks illegal immigrants kill little girls, allowing Trump to segue to that topic and not address overturning Roe V Wade. Several times in that debate, I didn’t know what point Biden was trying to argue.

    I will vote for Joe, but pretending that Trump’s mental state has deteriorated to the same level as Biden’s is clearly a delusion. Trump had less mental acuity to lose, but it’s still there and still lying and rambling and meandering around a given theme, saying everything and anything to support it regardless of if it makes sense. Biden can’t seem to remember what he was talking about after a few seconds.

    If you want to focus on Trump’s lack of fitness, this is the wrong way to do it. It’s entirely being framed around the ways that Biden is unfit. Within that framing, Biden always looks worse. Trump is unfit for other reasons, and we should focus on those until we have a candidate running against him with a bit more mental acuity.

  • Trump's Project 2025 is now being searched in Google more than Taylor Swift and the NFL
  • I’m down with that. Direct election of cabinet members, judges, military brass, and anyone else that the president hires to delegate work. Presidents don’t work, they hire. The people should be the ones hiring. Some cabinet seats would in turn gain the power of vote to exercise other formerly presidential powers, such as signing or vetoing bills. All meetings with other world leaders (for example) are managed by the ambassador to the UN, directly elected by the people. We would ranked vote for who we think the best ambassador would be, independent of the best labor secretary, etc. Forces us to focus on specific jobs as a framing for the electoral process.

  • Space Alert
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  • Greater Idaho movement: 13 counties in eastern Oregon have voted to secede and join Idaho Greater Idaho movement reacts to Crook County voters' approval of measure supporting move - KTVZ

    PRINEVILLE, Ore. (KTVZ) -  On Tuesday, voters in Crook County passed measure 7-86, which asked voters if they support negotiations to move the Oregon/Idaho border to include Crook County in Idaho.  The measure is passing with 53% of the vote, and makes Crook County the 13th county in eastern Oregon ...

    Greater Idaho movement reacts to Crook County voters' approval of measure supporting move - KTVZ

    > On Tuesday, voters in Crook County passed measure 7-86, which asked voters if they support negotiations to move the Oregon/Idaho border to include Crook County in Idaho.  The measure is passing with 53% of the vote, and makes Crook County the 13th county in eastern Oregon to pass a Greater Idaho measure.