Father; husband; mechanical engineer. Posting from my self-hosted Lemmy instance here in beautiful New Jersey. I also post from my Pixelfed instance.
Thanks, but there's plenty of time for me to screw this up yet!
Walking Lichen!
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/152929
> Here are the other two photos from the series on Pixelfed: > !image > !image > > cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/763216516514804651 > > > Walking Lichen! > > > > I was grilling some steak on my deck when I noticed this camouflaged lacewing larva. Check out this site for better photos and cool facts about it: http://jimmccormac.blogspot.com/2014/10/a-murderous-mobile-lichen.html?m=1 > > > > \#LichenSubscribe #Mosstodon #Macro #MacroPhotography #bugs #camouflage > > > > @[email protected]
Walking Lichen!
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/152929
> Here are the other two photos from the series on Pixelfed: > !image > !image > > cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/763216516514804651 > > > Walking Lichen! > > > > I was grilling some steak on my deck when I noticed this camouflaged lacewing larva. Check out this site for better photos and cool facts about it: http://jimmccormac.blogspot.com/2014/10/a-murderous-mobile-lichen.html?m=1 > > > > \#LichenSubscribe #Mosstodon #Macro #MacroPhotography #bugs #camouflage > > > > @[email protected]
Walking Lichen!
Here are the other two photos from the series on Pixelfed: !image !image
cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/763216516514804651
> Walking Lichen! > > I was grilling some steak on my deck when I noticed this camouflaged lacewing larva. Check out this site for better photos and cool facts about it: http://jimmccormac.blogspot.com/2014/10/a-murderous-mobile-lichen.html?m=1 > > \#LichenSubscribe #Mosstodon #Macro #MacroPhotography #bugs #camouflage > > @[email protected]
I did and the one feature she mentioned was that the tiles should be like stones. I guess me figuring it out is part of the gift.
What do I look for in a nice mahjong set?
My wife asked for a nice mahjong set for Christmas. What sort of features should I look for in a nice set? Where should or shouldn't I shop for one?
If you were born in Latin America or into a Latin American family then I'm pretty sure that makes you Latino even if that's not really your identity. You're also Moroccan-Mexican. You might also be white, but that's always a question of being white enough, which varies depending on the people around you. On many forms in the US you can identify as both white and Latin American because those are different questions.
Maybe it will be some consolation to remember that the Biden-Harris administration didn't do much to reverse the things done by the first Trump administration and kept on going with a bunch of them. Things didn't change much when he left and they probably won't change much now that he's coming back.
Okay, but what's the space version of the Boo Box?
Don't forget that this lady really got on the stage at the convention and shouted the lie that the Biden-Harris administration have been working tirelessly for a ceasefire in Gaza.
They did really badly this time, repeating mistakes from previous campaigns. I'm not saying they can't fix their problems, but it will be clear that they haven't if the same people are running the next campaign and they keep trying to court Republicans.
Right, but the premise of the question is that the Democrats are no longer viable at the Presidential level either.
I am personally not a fan of the Green Party, but as a point of fact they are more than just Jill Stein. My ballot had Green Party candidates running in three races.
Okay, but the party permitted Biden to campaign for reelection and then decided to run Kamala without a real primary.
I tend to agree, but the people I'm asking aren't ready to consider anything but electoralism.
What will it take for staunch Democrats to vote third party?
With the dust is settling from their defeat on Tuesday, it's becoming clearer that there was some incredible malpractice going on in the Democratic party. As shown in the tweet I linked, Biden delayed dropping out even though his team knew it was going to be a complete blowout for Trump. Then, we have Harris's campaign spending over a billion dollars and still losing all of the swing states she needed to win.
For all the Democrats who would never vote Republican and would have never voted third party, are you now considering voting third party in future elections? If not, what would it take?
Please relax. I don't claim to have special moral purity or whatever. Opposing genocide just seems like an obvious baseline. Besides, from the perspective of the individual voter (or eligible non-voter) there were no options of statistical possibility. The election was going to go the way it did regardless of what you or I decided to do with our single ballots. The voters who compromised on genocide got nothing except self-imposed damage to their minds and souls. The only way it would have gone differently is if the Democrats ran a better campaign with a different platform and probably with a different candidate.
Bake some cookies. Apart from that, maybe find some colorful wall art and rugs. How about painting the wall behind the sink a fun, warm color to break up all the white?
I like your kitchen very much, btw.
I'm not saying that in the US system, at the presidential level, the loss of one of the two main parties doesn't ensure the victory of the other. I'm saying that that doesn't matter to a regular individual who is eligible to vote. That person only gets one ballot and their choices are what is printed on the ballot as well as leaving some or all of it blank.
This one or the other correlative is actually the purview of the campaigns. They have the power to sway enough votes to matter by adjusting their messaging, strategy, and, for the incumbents, actual policy. Instead of looking at what they were up against and eschewing the status quo, the Democrats decided to make the following threat to voters: give us permission to keep exterminating Palestinians or the other guy might take away your various rights here at home. The continued massacre of Palestinians wasn't their only demand, but I'm just trying to stay on-topic. It's darkly humorous that the voters who made the choice to acquiesce to that threat ended up morally compromising on genocide for a candidate that apparently was going to lose anyway.
"I voted for the genocide lady in the hopes of rewarding her and her party with four more years in the White House and blocking anyone who hasn't had a material role in the Palestinian genocide ." That's what you sound like. You cannot morally justify voting for Harris unless you can justify her ongoing role in the genocide. No one else running for president came close to playing such a role and, of course, there's nothing immoral about abstaining.
Anyway, I'm just answering the OP. One does not have to vote on the basis of morality. People make immoral decisions all the time. It's just easily understandable why many people wouldn't cross that line.
To an individual voter in a large electorate the idea that a Harris loss would ensure a Trump victory isn't relevant except as an excuse to vote immorally for Harris, the genocide candidate. The only moral choices were to abstain or vote for an explicitly anti-genocide candidate.
Using binomial functions to estimate the relative value of individual presidential votes between states
Voters in swing states disillusioned with Kamala Harris over her support of Israel’s war on Gaza can swap 2-for-1 with safe blue states.
Does the description I wrote below describe a correct use of Excel's binomial functions?
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/149658
> Not completely sure I'm doing it right, but a 2:1 safe state for swing state swap seems like a bad deal. Here's my reasoning: > - In New Jersey, as an example of a safe state for Harris, Fivethirtyeight has Harris winning in 993 out of 1000 simulated elections. Assuming the same turnout as 2020 of 4,549,457 votes, there's a 0.500546 chance, on average, that a NJ voter will vote for Harris. I figured that out using the BINOM.DIST.RANGE function and the Goal Seek tool in Excel. > - In Michigan, with a turnout of 5,539,302 voters in 2020, Harris wins in only 605 out of 1000 simulations. Using the same tools above, if you randomly picked any Michigan voter, there's a 0.500059 chance that he or she is voting for Harris. > - Using the BINOMDIST function with the assumed turnouts and the chances we determined that voters in each of the above states would go for Harris, there's a 3.25986e-4 chance that Michigan is decided by a single vote. Likewise, there's a 2.47681e-5 chance for the same in NJ. Based on the probability that it could shift electoral college votes, a Michigan ballot is distinctly more powerful than an NJ one. > - If you could could reliably convince one more person to vote like you in NJ, your chances of affecting the NJ outcome only increase to 2.48222e-5. > - For an NJ voter to match their chances of affecting the Michigan outcome, they would have to command about 1,925 votes besides their own. In other words, there's an almost equal chance of a single vote Harris victory in MI as a 1,926 vote victory in NJ. > - Therefore, if a Michigan voter values their power, they should not trade their vote for anything less than 1,926 New Jersey votes. The rate should actually be greater to account for welching and Michigan having one more electoral vote than NJ. > > Am I missing something? > > cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22156613 > > > cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22156612 > > > > > Matt Sledge > > > November 4 2024, 1:56 p.m.#
A good deal? Swing-State Voters Disillusioned With Kamala Harris Can Swap for Two Non-Swing-State Votes
Voters in swing states disillusioned with Kamala Harris over her support of Israel’s war on Gaza can swap 2-for-1 with safe blue states.
Not completely sure I'm doing it right, but a 2:1 safe state for swing state swap seems like a bad deal. Here's my reasoning:
- In New Jersey, as an example of a safe state for Harris, Fivethirtyeight has Harris winning in 993 out of 1000 simulated elections. Assuming the same turnout as 2020 of 4,549,457 votes, there's a 0.500546 chance, on average, that a NJ voter will vote for Harris. I figured that out using the BINOM.DIST.RANGE function and the Goal Seek tool in Excel.
- In Michigan, with a turnout of 5,539,302 voters in 2020, Harris wins in only 605 out of 1000 simulations. Using the same tools above, if you randomly picked any Michigan voter, there's a 0.500059 chance that he or she is voting for Harris.
- Using the BINOMDIST function with the assumed turnouts and the chances we determined that voters in each of the above states would go for Harris, there's a 3.25986e-4 chance that Michigan is decided by a single vote. Likewise, there's a 2.47681e-5 chance for the same in NJ. Based on the probability that it could shift electoral college votes, a Michigan ballot is distinctly more powerful than an NJ one.
- If you could could reliably convince one more person to vote like you in NJ, your chances of affecting the NJ outcome only increase to 2.48222e-5.
- For an NJ voter to match their chances of affecting the Michigan outcome, they would have to command about 1,925 votes besides their own. In other words, there's an almost equal chance of a single vote Harris victory in MI as a 1,926 vote victory in NJ.
- Therefore, if a Michigan voter values their power, they should not trade their vote for anything less than 1,926 New Jersey votes. The rate should actually be greater to account for welching and Michigan having one more electoral vote than NJ.
Am I missing something?
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22156613
> cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22156612 > > > Matt Sledge > > November 4 2024, 1:56 p.m.#
Skyler Philippi, 24, of Columbia, Tennessee, was arrested by federal agents and charged with attempting to use a weapon of mass destruction and attempting to destroy an energy facility.
I do not have much sympathy for guys like this one, but I doubt that he would have gotten as far along in this plot without the FBI's undercover help.
A report by Brown University’s Watson Institute reveals that since the beginning of the war, the US has spent more than $22 billion on military aid to Israel - from weapons and equipment to the deployment of aircraft carriers. Israel receives more U.S. military aid than any other country and is uniq...
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/149349
> Here's a link to the paper referenced by the article. Not sure why it wasn't included with the article. Anyway, this chart stood out to me: > !image > > Don't believe or respect anyone who says the White House is working on a ceasefire deal. This administration has clearly been working on just the opposite. > > cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22130019 > > > A report by Brown University’s Watson Institute reveals that since the beginning of the war, the US has spent more than $22 billion on military aid to Israel - from weapons and equipment to the deployment of aircraft carriers. Israel receives more U.S. military aid than any other country and is uniquely able to use that funding to spend on domestic goods. > > > > The total amount of American aid since the start of the war is about NIS 85 billion ($22 billion) based on an average exchange rate by the Bank of Israel over the past year. Most has been delivered but about $5.2 billion will only arrive next year. According to official estimates from the Bank of Israel, the total cost of the war is estimated to be about NIS 250 billion ($65 billion), including around NIS 118 billion ($31 billion) for military costs including army operational costs, replenishment of military equipment, ammunition, and logistical support. Therefore, by a simple calculation, the U.S. has been funding about 70% of the war effort.
A report by Brown University’s Watson Institute reveals that since the beginning of the war, the US has spent more than $22 billion on military aid to Israel - from weapons and equipment to the deployment of aircraft carriers. Israel receives more U.S. military aid than any other country and is uniq...
Here's a link to the paper referenced by the article. Not sure why it wasn't included with the article. Anyway, this chart stood out to me: !image
Don't believe or respect anyone who says the White House is working on a ceasefire deal. This administration has clearly been working on just the opposite.
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22130019
> A report by Brown University’s Watson Institute reveals that since the beginning of the war, the US has spent more than $22 billion on military aid to Israel - from weapons and equipment to the deployment of aircraft carriers. Israel receives more U.S. military aid than any other country and is uniquely able to use that funding to spend on domestic goods. > > The total amount of American aid since the start of the war is about NIS 85 billion ($22 billion) based on an average exchange rate by the Bank of Israel over the past year. Most has been delivered but about $5.2 billion will only arrive next year. According to official estimates from the Bank of Israel, the total cost of the war is estimated to be about NIS 250 billion ($65 billion), including around NIS 118 billion ($31 billion) for military costs including army operational costs, replenishment of military equipment, ammunition, and logistical support. Therefore, by a simple calculation, the U.S. has been funding about 70% of the war effort.
#PintCheck
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/148973
> cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/758541431164274981 > > > \#PintCheck > > > > \#Smithwicks #beer > > > > @[email protected]
#PintCheck
cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/758541431164274981
> \#PintCheck > > \#Smithwicks #beer > > @[email protected]
Just sharing the spreadsheet I made to help with coaching youth soccer.
cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/758441003385510004
> I received a thank you card from one of the players I coached in soccer this season and it really warmed my heart. > > Apart from making my day, it also reminded me that I had wanted to share the spreadsheet I made to help plan substitutions and balance playing time. Here's the link: https://github.com/FatherMcGruder/A-Youth-Soccer-Game-Plan > > It's also my first time sharing something on GitHub. Hopefully, I didn't do anything wrong! > > \#Soccer #Coaching #spreadsheet #github > > @[email protected]
Stay vigilant, New Jersey!
cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/757697339536111031
> Stay vigilant, New Jersey! > > I had to stamp out some smouldering leaves I found on the sidewalk this afternoon. I hope it was just from a car and not some nincompoop tossing a cigarette butt. > > \#NewJersey #WildFire > > @[email protected]
Stay vigilant, New Jersey!
cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/757697339536111031
> Stay vigilant, New Jersey! > > I had to stamp out some smouldering leaves I found on the sidewalk this afternoon. I hope it was just from a car and not some nincompoop tossing a cigarette butt. > > \#NewJersey #WildFire > > @[email protected]
"Boner" is a good word for a reanimated skeleton or a decoration of such.
It's crazy how popular those twelve foot boners are.
Remember when the Hummer H1 was the biggest, most obnoxious passenger vehicle on the road?
cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/755907901353344482
> Remember when the Hummer H1 was the biggest, most obnoxious passenger vehicle on the road? > > This one is parked between two new Blazers, which are as wide and have distinctly taller hoods. > > \#FuckCars > > @[email protected]
#Shrinkflation
cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/755906400830131681
> \#Shrinkflation > > Brought my daughter to a trunk-or-treat and got this so so fun sized pack of peanut M&M's. More of a trick than a treat really. > > \#Halloween #candy #TrickOrTreat > > @[email protected]
Remember when the Hummer H1 was the biggest, most obnoxious passenger vehicle on the road?
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/145697
> cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/755907901353344482 > > > Remember when the Hummer H1 was the biggest, most obnoxious passenger vehicle on the road? > > > > This one is parked between two new Blazers, which are as wide and have distinctly taller hoods. > > > > \#FuckCars > > > > @[email protected]
Remember when the Hummer H1 was the biggest, most obnoxious passenger vehicle on the road?
cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/755907901353344482
> Remember when the Hummer H1 was the biggest, most obnoxious passenger vehicle on the road? > > This one is parked between two new Blazers, which are as wide and have distinctly taller hoods. > > \#FuckCars > > @[email protected]