Are you at a retirement center? I worked on that puzzle with my family while waiting for a table at the dining room.
As I already said, Moore's law died over 10 years ago. Kurzweil's accelerating returns predictions were based on it continuing. He didn't know about the silicon power wall that the industry was about to hit because they didn't know either. Progress has continued but it stopped being exponential growth.
CPU's used to double their performance every 18 months. Now it's 5-10% every 18 months. If performance scaling had continued from 1999 to 2019 like it had from 1979 to 1999, his list of predictions would have been mostly right.
That the list so clearly lays out how
What list? The article you linked simply quoted the 86% as a fact when that "fact" came from Kurzweil's self evaluation.
Terrance Howard thinks Terryology is correct too.
That author is simply republishing Kurzweil's self promotion essay titled "How my predictions are faring."
Here's a more complete and correct list showing that his predictions are correct 86% of the time.
That's the list that I referenced earlier where Kurzweil rated himself.
I certainly did. I clicked the archive link above and he's a jerk.
You claim having both the date and the actual prediction wrong is a technicality. With that criteria, a wrong prediction is impossible.
Yes, he did have some accurate predictions. From the Forbes article where the author went through them all and highlighted a few, Kurzweil was about 25% correct.
Getting the abilities and date wrong about a technological prediction isn't a technicality. It's simply a wrong prediction.
https://awful.systems/comment/3813653
Nice video. It may seem dry at first but it has great information if you stick with it.
Why do you think I am threatened by predictions he got right? Are you ok?
Pointing out mistakes isn't a threat. It's the scientific method
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Imo turbulence is "unsolved" in the same way the 3-Body problem is unsolved. It's chaotic.
Yet another "population decline is the end of the world" bull shit article. Population decline is not a problem. Historical population declines worse than the current ones like the Black Plague and WW2 have always resulted in a better world for everyone.
When the population goes back to sustainable levels it will go back up again. It's no different than any other ecology where animals outgrow their environment's carrying capacity and decline. After declining, they grow again until the limit is reached again.
When population goes back to 1950's levels, labor will be valued like it was in the 1950's, and the average person will once again have the wealth and leisure time to have a family.
Population decline is only a problem for the ruling class who live by skimming a little profit from all workers. If there are less workers, they will have to be paid more which means less excess capital for mega yachts.
I'm all for self-care.
Typical. I show your arguments to be a sham so your response is insults.
If he claimed to be a scifi author, his "predictions" would be fine. That's where imagination comes in. But he's not claiming to be a fiction writer.
He made specific predictions of what will happen by a certain date. He wasn't off by a couple of years. He was completely wrong. You can't pick out the part you like out, ignore the mistake, and claim a statement is true.
No he hasn't been correct on his predictions.
He self judged himself that he was mostly correct and then published that as if was a fact.
You can't claim VR indistinguishable from reality in 2009 and then call it a correct prediction because we got Meta 3 goggles with Halflife 2 level graphics in 2023.
You can't claim Petaflop CPUs in 2009 and then say, well if you add up every computer that Google owns, it's like a Petaflop CPU (yes, Kurzweil made that excuse).
That's like if I predict a colony on Mars by 2030 and then call it correct when a manned landing finally happens Mars in 2055 (but no colony). What's 50 years and 1 man instead of a colony? I said a man would be on Mars so I'm right. Ignore that I was 25 years wrong.
Once again reality copies xkcd.
Except Kurtzweil actually did make specific predictions and was proven correct over and over again.
You missed the part where the specific predictions you listed were wrong. Because the specific part is the date.
Anyone can say "human lifespan will get longer in the future" But Kurzweil said average human lifespan will be over 100 by 2009. VR will be visually indistinguishable from reality in 2009. Self driving cars in 2009. Most diseases will be eliminated by the 2020s, thanks to nanobots. Translating telephones allow two people across the globe to speak to each other even if they do not speak the same language in 2009.
He has been wrong about most everything because his dates were wrong. His dates were wrong because Moore's law ended shortly after he made his predictions.
Vague predictions about the future don't prove anything but imagination.
Considering the first computer to beat a human in chess was 1956 when Kurzweil was 8 years old, that's not much of a prediction.
"Kurzweil for some of his incorrect predictions for 2009, such as that the economy would continue to boom, that a U.S. company would have a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion, that a supercomputer would achieve 20 petaflops, that speech recognition would be in widespread use, and that cars would drive themselves using sensors installed in highways."
He predicted VR in 2009 would be indistinguishable from reality.
"Cpu processing speed explosion(Moore's law)"
Moore's law died around 2005.
This explains why all his predictions have been wrong.
Life extension(cryonics/neuralink)
Anyone can say that a particular technology will exist in the distant future. Kurzweil made specific claims that we would already have that now.
PCs would be able to answer questions wirelessly
When did he make that prediction? Because his famous book of predictions was from 1999 when we already had that ( Palm pilot with cell data add on).
I never claimed it was. But Java comes with its own baggage of Oracle shenanigans (they could start licensing drama with open source forks just like they did a few years ago) and java security patches means maintenance. All of which would be completely unnecessary if Ubiquity let you setup the AP with ssl.
The controller interface is amazing. But it, or a phone app should not be required to set up an AP.
That seems a problem of Blizzard's skill matching algorithm, not the game itself.
Deleted posts should create an auto reply to the creator.
I replied to a post in a thread (about how my 15 year old burned DVDs were going bad and what I was doing to remedy it). The thread is still there but my post is gone. It wasn't an argument. It was a reply to someone asking for data backup options.
Some auto generated explanation from Lemmy would be nice like : post deleted by owner. Or posted deleted by moderator.