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Donald Trump Suffers Triple Polling Blow in Battleground States
  • The polls in 2016 were largely on target. Clinton won the popular vote by roughly the predicted margin and the few key swing states that lost her the race had results that were largely within the margin of error. Lots of people took 2016 as an indication that polling is no longer good. That's the wrong lesson to learn from 2016; it just doesn't match the facts.

  • Donald Trump Suffers Triple Polling Blow in Battleground States
  • I bet these polls are within a couple points of the reality, as they pretty much always have been (even in the era of cell phones). They specifically weight the results based on the expected non-response of various groups. They account for the most obvious objection that anybody could raise about a modern poll (this one).

  • The Absurdity of the Dump-Biden Uprising
  • Ditching Biden is the only way to unite two important groups of Democrats: those with some grasp of reality, who recognize that Biden is far too old to run again, and those who still have their head in the sand about the issue, but will rally around anyone who isn't Trump.

    If we stick with Biden the election is lost. This will not be the last time Biden has a poor showing in public, revealing just how hard it is for him to speak and think at his advanced age. Every time it happens, more voters pay attention, and his poll numbers will sink more.

  • The justices of the supreme court ruled that Trump was immune and effectively above the law while being president. What is now stopping Biden from bringing a gun to the next debate?
  • All Biden has to do is claim that it's an official act, because Trump is a terrorist, a threat to the Constitution, or some other questionable legal pretext. The problem is that there's no remedy against such a claim. It could be litigated and go to SCOTUS again, who would have to decide whether it's an official act or not. But this ruling gives no definite rule on what does or does not count as an official act.

  • The President Can Now Assassinate You, Officially
  • The only remedy the current court's ruling really allows is impeachment. It essentially means that (absent a later ruling specifying exactly what counts as a President's "official acts,") the President can do literally anything he wants and never suffer any consequences. Don't agree that what he was doing was an official act? Impeach him or stfu. He's not going to jail for breaking any law, ever.

  • Rachel Maddow Warns That SCOTUS Trump Immunity Decision Is ‘a Death Squad Ruling’ | Video
  • In ordinary situations, you're presumed innocent until proven guilty. When you're the president, according to SCOTUS, it's presumed that the law doesn't even apply to you because of immunity. And proving that it applies to you requires proving that what you did was or was not a nebulously defined "official act."

    This ruling will make it virtually impossible to convict a former president of anything.