I don't get that thinking. There's contemporary examples and plenty of historical examples that not having a (well funded) army increases your chances of being in a war.
Because they're naïve idealists. The kind of people who think we should get rid of our nuclear weapons, completely misunderstanding the reason we have them in the first place.
Speculation is pretty much irrelevant. What the USA is doing with semiconductors is proof that China is about to take Taiwan. What North Korea is doing in Ukraine is evidence of what is about to happen in South Korea. WW3 is inevitable within 10 years. Israel is getting ahead of their vulnerabilities to fortify against their vulnerable flanks once Türkiye flips sides to take Cypress and several Greek islands. Millions now alive will not see 2040, perhaps billions. The subsentient human animal is about to emerge again because we fail at fundamental reasoning skills and the application of proven game theory.