This made me curious, and while I could have done the long-form math, I’m about to go to bed, so I asked a popular LLM:
To estimate the number of diamonds one could mine in vanilla Minecraft for 40 hours per week over a year, we need to consider a few factors:
Diamonds per hour: This varies based on mining efficiency, methods used (e.g., branch mining, strip mining), and luck.
Hours per week: 40 hours.
Weeks per year: 52 weeks.
Estimation of Diamonds per Hour
A reasonable average estimate, assuming effective branch mining techniques and using the Fortune III enchantment, is approximately 10 diamonds per hour. This estimate can vary significantly depending on mining strategies and in-game conditions, but it's a good baseline for our calculation.
Calculation
Hours per week: 40
Weeks per year: 52
Total hours per year: 40 x 52 = 2080
Diamonds per hour: 10 (average estimate)
Now, multiplying the total hours by the average number of diamonds mined per hour:
Total diamonds = 2080 x 10 = 20,800
Conclusion
Mining efficiently in vanilla Minecraft for 40 hours per week over a year, one could mine approximately 20,800 diamonds.
20,800 x $1.50 = $31,250
This yield would never match the returns of the $100,000 up front.
Ok, here's what you do. You dig up ~20 diamonds to start. Create a new world, open up a server and pay for a bunch of fortnite buck giftcards in exchange for set rates of diamond nodes people scout out for you. Only log in on the weekends, mine it up, and pay the children in their v-bucks while you get your real money. Rinse and repeat.
I'd go with the former. The latter is literally just a job. An extremely repetitive and pointless job. And from what I can tell from spawn probabilities after considering the time you'd need to spend playing the game enough to keep mining, we're only talking 3 or 4 diamond ore blocks per hour max so like 100k annually as a full time job. You could do it as a part time side gig but by the time you hit the 100k from choice 1 you'd be chasing the compound interest.
Edit: oh it says $1.5 not $15. Make that hell no then
I found a video where a player mines for 10 hours, using fortune, and slightly outdated techniques, on an older version of Minecraft. They got 535 diamonds. Assuming fortune III gives 2.2x, that's 24 per hour. With the modern technique, you get 30% more exposed surface per block mined, but because most pockets of diamond have multiple chances to be exposed, this only really nets 20% more per time spent (roughly).
Also, my understanding is that the latest version spawns diamonds nearly twice as much. That's roughly $75 per hour of tedious activity, with only very slight possibility for improvement.
If you make anywhere near $75 per hour, it's probably not worth as much as the cash up front, because continuing in your line of work can net pretty solid gains. If you don't, probably spend a few hours with an efficiency V diamond pickaxe, and sanity check my numbers before deciding. Use the dive+crouch movement to dig 1 block high tunnels, and change your graphics settings so you can work in the dark. If it works out, I guess take the diamond mining job, and figure out what you can do to stave off carpal tunnel.