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This is just based on my personal experience, so please take it with a grain of salt.
Rather than gaining ground from the wider population, I see the recent rise in Linux usage as coming from a pool of "interested users" who have in one way or the other, had some prior exposure and thus interest in Linux. These people have already been interested in making the jump, but have been held back in one way or the other.
This shouldn't be taken as discounting the recent advances amongst Linux distributions, however. Personally, the reason why I've made the jump is two-fold: dissatisfaction with Windows, and the advances in Linux itself that have made the jump far less intimidating than ever before. Not being a gamer, however, advances in Proton was only seen as a bonus, though a very welcome one.
Only one other person in my current friend group daily-drive Linux, and like me, they already have had experience with it beforehand. There are some other people I know of who have used Linux, but still, they all have had prior experience from school or work. For everyone else I know of, if they've even heard of Linux, they think of it as "for advanced users" and as one contact put it "way above my pay grade". Unfortunately, in so far as personal experience goes, I don't have confidence Linux will be shedding that image anytime soon.
As for the Steam Deck, I am guessing it'd be similar (with a lot of caveats) to how people see Android. It'd be seen as a separate thing, and not occupy the same mental space as "desktop Linux". For one, it being a hand-held system will reinforce that difference, and people aren't as willing to tinker about with their handhelds as people are with their desktop systems. Steam Deck's OS might as well be BSD or even Temple OS as far as the ordinary user is concerned. I am hoping I am wrong here, however, as interoperability might make a difference here: if people can install and use their desktop programs to their Steam Decks in as much the same ease as installing an Android app in their phones, then perhaps the choice of OS here will make an impression on the users and not just the tinkerers.
Despite saying all that, however, I still think Linux is undergoing a renaissance. There's quite a lot of improvements going on even as we speak. Usability, in a very general sense, like being able to daily-drive Linux without being hampered by a lot of issues, is way better than it was when I first used a Linux machine in a school computer laboratory close to twenty years ago. Advances like this is starting to pull people who are curious, interested, and already leaning towards making the jump—and if this trend continues, will lead more people into using Linux, leading to more people contributing towards advances, and so on.
I jumped all in least December just to get away from Windows. I went Arch because I like a challenge and I thought it would fast track learning how to Linux. I work IT so I'm skilled with Windows and software in general. Once I got it setup, which took a while, I haven't had too many issues, or at least not many more than I had with Windows. Most of them have been related to hibernation, which I just disabled, and Wayland with Nvidia. It struggles remembering positions when I disable and re-enable monitors, since I use the same station for work. Other than that, it runs so much better than better, faster, and more efficient than Windows.
If you want to be a power user, the sky is the limit to what you can do, or go with a stable, user friendlier distro like Ubuntu or Mint, where the out of box experience is fairly intuitive. If Linux shipped stock on laptops, most people would assume Windows got different and be none the wiser. Not having native MS Office apps is also going to be a deal breaker for a lot of people.
I've switched to Linux as my daily driver sometime late 2019, and initially went with Manjaro (with XFCE, because I was using an ancient laptop back then) after it was recommended to me. The installation and set-up process was pretty quick and painless.
When I got my current desktop, I stayed with Manjaro. However, I got some problems with my NVIDIA video card's drivers. Proprietary support for it was dropped shortly after I got my system. Nouveau was decent. I can use my system at the very least, but gaming was a lot iffy. I didn't mind since I don't really do gaming, however. Since then, I've moved on to Arch, btw. Also since then, I've got an AMD card. Neither of them gave me much problems. A lot of my problems with Arch deal with the changes I've made to my configuration.
This is basically my Linux experience: when it works, which is 90% of the time, it's excellent. When I do have some problems, 90% of the time (9% overall), I can get by with a few internet searches. That remaining 10% of the time (so, 1% overall), I feel that I'm just too smooth-brained to resolve it, and even attempting to resolve it seems to be a foolish errand.
While lot of help is out there online, I don't appreciate the elitist tone of some of the more Arch-specific fora—they're helpful, but I'll never want to put myself to the position of asking those people for help, not with how newbs are treated. That is basically why I said earlier that I have no confidence that Linux will soon be able to shed its "for advanced users" image. Newbs to Linux don't have the knowledge to "properly ask questions" required by a lot of those online fora. IMO, they only resort to asking questions online when they're knee-deep in shit and are desperate for an answer. Being faced with an "elitist RTFM attitude" when one's already desperate for help doesn't alleviate that "Linux is too hard for me" image.
So, yeah, there's that.
90% of the time, Linux works swimmingly fine. 9% of the time, some problems might arise, but an online search (Arch Wiki is very helpful in this regard) and digging around some fora would resolve it. 1% of the time is where you'd find yourself wondering if you're smart enough for Linux. Unfortunately, it only takes a handful of (second-hand) bad interactions (thread closed with no answers, being told to RTFM, being told that the query is too vague without any helpful nudge towards a refinement of the query, etc.) to sour a user's impression of Linux as a whole.
I must admit that newbs not knowing how to ask questions isn't a problem exclusive to Linux alone. However, Windows and even Mac have the luxury of larger user numbers, and more importantly, paid staff to address user queries. With Linux, as a rule, the ones answering user questions are but other users volunteering their time and effort to answer questions. It's understandable that facing the same malformed question again and again is infuriating. However, I think it takes time and effort to be rude. IMO, it's just better to walk away from a possible unpleasant interaction. Of course, this wouldn't help the user at all, but I'd rather see a thread with no replies than someone telling me to shut up and read the fucking manual. Perhaps there'd be someone more helpful who'd step in before the thread inevitably gets locked due to inactivity.
I don't want to be negative about Linux, but if the "year of the Linux desktop" is to happen, this is one crucial thing that we (and I count myself in being a Linux user myself) must address. Every Linux user is, whether we like it or not, an ambassador, and how we deal with newbs/noobs asking questions will shape their impression of not just us, but Linux as a whole. I think there are a lot of people who are still on the fence, not because of Linux's capabilities, but because of a pre-concieved notion of what a Linux user must be: tech-savvy and above all, willing to devote the time to learning about their machine and OS. A lot of people aren't like that. Moreover, I think there are some people using Linux (even Arch, btw) who aren't like that, but ... yeah.
At any rate, I agree with you that a lot more people will be able to get by with a pre-installed Linux system. I think Linux is ready for being a mainstream daily driver.
Oh, yeah, I don't think not having native MS Office apps isn't that much of a deal-breaker. I personally use Libre Office, and despite some hiccups (their documentation do have a lot of problems IMO), it's got a decent amount of feature-parity with MS Office. For almost all of what I want to use an office suite, Libre Office would suffice. For the exceptions, I can usually find a workaround.
Overall, I'm happy with my Linux system—to the point I barely even touch Windows anymore (my SO installed Win10 on a separate SSD for me so that I can dual-boot), but I've got no reason to log on Windows. I might have had some problems (mostly of my own making), but with that small exception of times that made me wonder if I'm smart enough for Linux (or yeah, basically Arch), I'm more than content a huge majority of the time.
I'm sorry for the rambling wall of text, and I hope I've put my message across clearly.
Cheers to that. Being welcoming and forgiving with new users or just ones who don't know yet how to state their problem better, is a must. Assholes, like those elitists you spoke of, are not only unique to the Linux bubble, but are a sickness spread through all kinds of volunteer-based software related streams. I mean, just take a look at stackoverflow or forums and github pages of some open-source projects.
I can understand if someone is annoyed by insufficiently detailed problem threads, if they see that very often, but don't take that out on the user, because that would be the best way to deter people from using that project. And also because it's super unhelpful and inconsiderate.
That doesn't mean serving someone everything on a silver plate and not expecting anything from the user. It's okay to expect more involvement of the user to solve their own problem. However, do it in a nice way. Some mere hints, even if someone is not at the capacity to completely help, can go a long way.As you nicely put it, every user and voluntary contributor is an ambassador of the project.
Indeed, the phenomena of people being assholes to newbs isn't limited to Linux. Heck, I even witnessed this in a lot more places other than you've mentioned (like language learning). There is just this fact that people don't start out with enough knowledge to get the help they need. We need to be aware of this fact.
What makes this really problematic in Linux circles is how Linux is "a minority of a minority." Being a computer nerd is relatively rare enough, and being a computer nerd who is into Linux is even more rare. This makes the knowledge of the mores and culture of Linux circles even more scarce.
If you ask me, one good way to alleviate this is to "adopt a noob". That is, someone helps a new Linux user along, not only helping them in the installation, configuration, and maintenance of their system, but also how to interact online with other Linux users, and more importantly, how to get and use the debug data one would need to resolve their problems on their own, or ask for more expert help if necessary—or even to make a bug report or feature request if all else fails. All of this in the hopes that this new Linux user grow into someone who can pay things forward. That way, not only can users get the help they need, but also give the contributors the information they need to improve things (assuming more people make good bug reports and feature requests).
But if we're going by Linux user stereotypes...
Seriously though, I've seen this happen in real life, having been a member of a Linux users group in university. That group didn't go as far as teach members how to retrieve and use system debug data though, let alone how to ask for help online, but simply being part of a group of people who help each other with the inevitable challenges of using a Linux computer system is oftentimes enough to encourage someone to keep at it.
TBH, if it weren't for that group, I might have stayed a Windows user, with my Linux experience being negatively colored by schoolwork and struggling with
vi😅
A number of years ago, I put 2 and 2 together and realized that while most of the time stuff “just works” in Linus (especially with modern versions), some hardware manufacturers have absolute ass Linux support. Predominantly, this occurs with Realtek components.
If at all possible, swap any NICs (wired, wireless, copper, optical, m.2, PCIE - doesn’t matter, it’s just that Realtek linux drivers tend to suck, and the hardware is often just not as good or efficient at the IC level) to Intel models - anything that meets your bandwidth requirements should do, and you can find them used all over the place, or salvage them from old hardware (cheap eBay 1L thin clients are a good place to pull these from, since you get a tiny computer AND a wireless NIC that you otherwise probably wouldn’t even use).
Also, sleep/hibernate is a thing that often gets wonky on a lot of Linux systems for a whole host of reasons, so simply shutting the thing down is often a better call if we’re talking about a laptop.
You nailed it. Too often when I search for an answer to an issue, someone comes in and links to the arch wiki. The wiki is great and full of information, but it doesn't have answers for specific cases. Sometimes I just need someone to tell me which parameter I need, or to tell me my formatting is fucked up or something. I'm not a Linux expert and trying to understand what configs do what and all of the options needed all at the same time is a lot. Forums are a place to ask questions and discuss solutions, but my experiences at least with Arch have not been that.
I also use libre when I need it, but I think Office apps not being around, warranted or not, will be a disqualifier for some people. The web apps work well, but for a power user, it might not be the ideal experience.
I just had to go through an absolutely catastrophic rewrite of a bunch of official documentation that needed to be done in Word (with sharepoint stuff) and let me tell you: holy fuck their collaborative editing stuff is fucking atrocious. We lost work on that fucking doc SO MANY TIMES. Particularly, the formatting (which is important, as it’s an official Work Instruction that the FDA might ask to look at at some point) got completely fucked at least a dozen times, and we had to go through and reapply everything… only for someone to come through with a minor change (and we got tired of asking people to stop making edits, changes, or comments - with or without revision tracking (which did not seem to be actually tracking revisions, because at no point were we able to successfully roll back any changes to a known good state) because nobody fucking listens to anything and “it’s only a minor change”) and wrecks everything again. I’ve talked to various people about how flaky and sketchy our whole MSO setup evidently is, and the response was “yeah, our hosted Sharepoint instance is super fucked, but it’s not a priority to fix right now”. I don’t know why this is an acceptable state for things to be in.
We are still trying to finalize the doc.
It’s been over a month.
I’m a software engineer. I deal with complex and nuanced systems on a daily basis as my job. I avoid, and will continue to avoid, MS Office like the plague.
I just switched from the sole IT guy at small/med business, about 50 employees, to a much larger one. I didn't experience the issues you have with collaboration but it's probably mostly the lack of use in my environment, meaning less chances for things to fuck up.
Spot on analysis.