A changing British electorate is propelling Labour towards victory
A changing British electorate is propelling Labour towards victory
Our data shows that the party is forging a remarkably broad electoral coalition
Beyond the paywall: https://archive.is/Yf8bx#selection-2039.35-2047.566
Really interesting arcticle breaking down which groups have moved and where, and providing a bit of depth to the discussion around changing demographics.
An interesting take-away is the fact that the electorate is much "swingier" than it ever has been in the past, with a far greater number of people willing to consider switching their vote compared to historic elections. That makes things a lot more volatile than previously, and explains some of the break-neck changes we've seen in recent years (Labour gains in 2017, Tory majority in 2019, potential Labour landslide in 2024).
The numbers quoted indicate much more of a sea change has occurred than I would have expected.
in the 1960s around an eighth of British voters switched their choice between elections. By the 1980s it was a fifth. At the last election Professor Edward Fieldhouse, a political scientist at the University of Manchester, and his colleagues concluded that most of the electorate were swing voters. Politicians see it on the doorstep. “In 1997 around 40% of voters were up for grabs but today it is probably around 70%,” says Jonathan Reynolds, Labour’s shadow business secretary and an MP in the north-west.
Maybe there's hope for PR within the next 20 years.
Yeah this is a very promising trend. It's the opposite of what seems to be happening in the US, which I was afraid we would be condemned to as well.
A swingier electorate can only be good news. It suggests that people are becoming more assertive
This is also why Labour's messaging is so hyper-cautious. When you have a coalition that is big and diverse, almost anything you say annoys some part of it. And that's before you try and win over the increasingly marginal people not already planning to vote for you.
Labour should just run on a rejoining the EU platform.
Really wedge the Tories on it and get a mandate for the next election to do exactly that.