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the reddit blackout is for like two days i expect that 90% of them will stick to the two days and business as usual afterwards. their bottom line is to continue running mods of their communities, even if they acknowledge that was is going on with reddit is bad. they shouldnt have announced a scheduled, limited blackout.
i expect some fringe communities to come here and stay but it will always be business as usual on reddit
therefore Lemmy needs to have a reason for people to stick around, communities offering something that isnt otherwise available, even just a refreshing change of community culture
Honestly it'll probably be closer to 99.999% of users will stick around Reddit. The largest Lemmy instance is smaller than the smallest subreddit I follow and I suspect that's probably the case for most people.
Here's what will happen... Reddit blackout starts, people come to Lemmy, 8 out of 10 are confused by the way things work and bail instantly. 2 out of 10 might stick around, try to sign up, but everyone hammers the top 3-4 instances and they have a bad first impression. A few days later everyone is back at Reddit and Lemmy is right back where it was a month ago.
I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt I will be.
I think that there will be people who remain on Lemmy permanently. This group will remain small, and insignificant. But hopefully there will be enough people to prop the instances up with content. At which point Lemmy will begin to grow slowly; this slow growth imo is the most important. But yeah alot of people will go back to Reddit and forget all about Lemmy. And that's ok.
Small
Insignificant
I see you've been talking to my ex
this is the most redditish comment I've seen so far.
remains to be seen if that's a good thing or not, but I did chuckle over the familiar joke
I was about to say the exact same thing! I checked and sure enough that commenter joined in the last few hours.
I've purged my account.. and passed the Rubicon. I'm on Lemmy now or just reading news sites.
You're exaggerating, I can definitely see how Twitter users changed the general atmosphere of the Fediverse, at least on the instances that I have used in the past. As for Reddit, I think it will be something similar to that, not everyone is going to migrate but Lemmy is going to be significantly bigger, better and THE place to go if you want to ditch Reddit. Also, it's not like having a big portion here of social media audience is going to do a lot of good. I have serious doubts about people being able to give value to the community if they can't even figure out how to register on an instance other than the main one
Yeah Reddit's core users are pretty technical. At least the ones who joined before the big popularity boom in the last 5 years. The old school redditors will probably end up on lemmy.
lemmy feels more like reddit once did than reddit does now.
Definitely.
You're talking about ~70% of reddit and you're probably right. Let's see. If lemmy gets an app with a better UI, it's going to be that way for sure. An embeddes image and video viewer is missing, for example
As a reddit refugee the image and video viewer has been the only speedbump for me. That is other than not being hooked up to a firehose of content, but i feel that will come in time.
Regardig videos it doesn't really matter cause 90% of the time you have to open the video source with the browser or another app anyway. But re. images, since lemmy can view them in the post, why it doesnt just allow to put them full screen? I should look at the code
It has been fixed in the last build
yep. it's about quality, not quantity - we'll reach critical mass easily enough, and that's all that matters for the short term.
You still need a minimum of people for things to work. And a lot of subreddit equivalent are still completely empty.
of course. but Lemmy really does have potential - it's a more accessible platform than Mastodon and reddit users are more aligned with the strategy of decentralizing via the fediverse. this fits.
we gotta start somewhere.
I personally don't understand wanting to go back... reddit is so unpleasant as it is. All that made it tolerable was 3rd party. I'd rather go back to imgur than reddit.