Nate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.
Nate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.
As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president’s favor.
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Got a text the other day to demand my support for Biden by completing a poll via some suspicious shortened link. Might’ve been legit, more likely a phishing attempt. The wording of it just made me think of the “Trade offer” meme.
Didn’t respond. If this is how pollsters operate they’re gonna be out of business within a decade (should be already) or just continue to get skewed results from braindead fools who click on suspicious links and also vote for blatantly unfit, deranged and dangerous candidates.
I've gotten two texts from two different numbers claiming I'm not registered to vote. Which is weird, because I voted in a primary a couple months back. So I checked my state's voter registration and I'm still there, still getting a mail-in ballot like I asked.
I did a bit of forensics on the links but they just redirect to a GCE instance that returns a 500 error, and the domain registration is anonymized so I can't get any info there. But I'm worried a lot of people are clicking a link that might take them off the voting rolls.
Exactly so. They were always more performative than predictive (remember all those things polls got wrong? No? Funny, that), but in 2024 they’re absolutely reaching and pretending like everything's normal. Trust them, bro.
They get very accurate polling numbers from the "Dumb enough to click on unsolicited sketchy links" demographic.