I've been watching the WFLA live feed, which is a St. Pete TV station. They're saying that the storm is now expected to be centered around Sarasota, but Tampa is still inside the cone and it is looking like it might go straight through Sarasota. It is expected to be a cat 3 by then and it will make landfall around 2 am Thursday.
This whole area of the Florida coast is pretty densely packed, so pretty much anywhere it hits will likely be catastrophic.
A Sarasota impact is preferred since it forces the storm sirge further south. An impact north of the bay means that all the storm surge gets funneled straight into Tampa Bay and the area of higher population density
They don't source the map properly, so it's hard to say what time that map was taken from, but I guess we'll have to see. Unless it goes way off course, no matter where it makes landfall, it's going to be bad.