I he had promoted mask wearing and distancing, sold MAGA masks, called it a "war on Corona" and pushed the "American-made" vaccine, it would have been a landslide.
If not for COVID, the US would've entered a recession anyway but it might have been properly attributed to Trump. He was already badgering the Fed to lower interest rates in 2019, before the disease was even discovered, because of his disastrous tax handout for the wealthy and trade war with China.