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eleitl @lemmy.ml
Posts 351
Comments 494
We've moved to https://lemm.ee/c/collapse -- please update your subscription
  • We are not making anyone move. I and the rest of the mods but wabooti who is MIA for 8 months have already left. It's a courtesy notice to the community. Whether wabooti will continue is up to him. I will just stay here long enough for the discussion, if any.

    You can of course make your own collapse community (with blackjack and hookers) but perhaps pick an instance where the admins are not overshoot deniers. It seems though you don't quite understand the significance of that "slap on the wrist".

  • We've moved to https://lemm.ee/c/collapse -- please update your subscription

    Because of admin interference with the content https://lemmy.ml/modlog/16033 and disciplinary actions we obviously can't stay here.

    We've set up shop on http://lemm.ee/c/collapse [email protected] so please update your subscription if you intend to continue to follow this community.

    At some point this community will be mothballed, unless [email protected] wants to continue taking care of it.

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    www.artberman.com A Renewable Energy Transition Violates The Maximum Power Principle | Art Berman

    We all want solutions to the world's many crises but do we understand the underlying problems? Everything in nature, including human society, relies on energy for production, consumption, recycling, and sustainability. Therefore, to understand things, we must first examine how energy is turned into ...

    A Renewable Energy Transition Violates The Maximum Power Principle | Art Berman
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    surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com #278: Of facts and gambits

    THE REALITY OF EXTEND-AND-PRETEND The great unspoken fact of the 1930s was that the world was drifting to war, a trend that nobody knew how to stop. The great unspoken fact of the 2020s is that the…

    #278: Of facts and gambits
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    Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5 °C climate future using historical analogs

    Significance

    Technological innovation is central to sustainable development, but representing novel technologies in systems models is difficult due to limited data on their past performance. We propose a method to model the feasibility space for novel technologies that combines empirical data on historical analogs and early adoption with a global integrated assessment model. Applying this method to direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), we find that the feasibility space is large, with DACCS contributing meaningfully to net-zero goals if it grows like some analogs and failing to do so with others. The results can be used to identify technology and policy features that may be important in enabling rapid adoption to avert the worst effects of climate change.

    Abstract

    Limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 °C will rely, in part, on technologies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. However, many carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are in the early stages of development, and there is limited data to inform predictions of their future adoption. Here, we present an approach to model adoption of early-stage technologies such as CDR and apply it to direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). Our approach combines empirical data on historical technology analogs and early adoption indicators to model a range of feasible growth pathways. We use these pathways as inputs to an integrated assessment model (the Global Change Analysis Model, GCAM) and evaluate their effects under an emissions policy to limit end-of-century temperature change to 1.5 °C. Adoption varies widely across analogs, which share different strategic similarities with DACCS. If DACCS growth mirrors high-growth analogs (e.g., solar photovoltaics), it can reach up to 4.9 GtCO2 removal by midcentury, compared to as low as 0.2 GtCO2 for low-growth analogs (e.g., natural gas pipelines). For these slower growing analogs, unabated fossil fuel generation in 2050 is reduced by 44% compared to high-growth analogs, with implications for energy investments and stranded assets. Residual emissions at the end of the century are also substantially lower (by up to 43% and 34% in transportation and industry) under lower DACCS scenarios. The large variation in growth rates observed for different analogs can also point to policy takeaways for enabling DACCS.

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    Microbial interactions with microplastics: Insights into the plastic carbon cycle in the ocean

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    Arizona accuses Amazon of being a monopoly and deceiving consumers with “dark patterns”
  • Ok, if you don't use their web site you won't see the UX dark patterns. Trust us, they there and fit with the overall garbagefication theme. Annoys the living shit out of me. At least no more Prime Video UI and ad trainwreck.

  • Comments on Global Warming Acceleration, Sulfur Emissions, Observations

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    Arizona accuses Amazon of being a monopoly and deceiving consumers with “dark patterns”
  • If you haven't noticed, you've been not paying attention. I canceled Prime a while ago and they try very hard to get you back. And they try to sneak on you billed expedited shipping when over minimum gratis shipping quota. Dark patterns galore.

    It would be a major pain for me to boycott them completely so I don't, yet.

  • Single mode fiber cable: which SFP module?
  • Nobody is using MMF these days even for local runs. As to sfp, check https://fs.com and pick a matching pair that is cheapest. These days it makes sense to use 10G or 25G rather than 1G. Some people run 100G for their homelab, but even used it's pricy and noisy.

  • Centennial Total Solar Irradiance Variation (2022)

    www.mdpi.com Centennial Total Solar Irradiance Variation

    Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) quantifies the solar energy received by the Earth and therefore is of direct relevance for a possible solar influence on climate change on Earth. We analyse the TSI space measurements from 1991 to 2021, and we derive a regression model that reproduces the measured daily ...

    Centennial Total Solar Irradiance Variation

    Abstract

    Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) quantifies the solar energy received by the Earth and therefore is of direct relevance for a possible solar influence on climate change on Earth. We analyse the TSI space measurements from 1991 to 2021, and we derive a regression model that reproduces the measured daily TSI variations with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.17 W/m2. The daily TSI regression model uses the MgII core to wing ratio as a facular brightening proxy and the Photometric Sunspot Index (PSI) as a measure of sunspot darkening. We reconstruct the annual mean TSI backwards to 1700 based on the Sunspot Number (SN), calibrated on the space measurements with an RMSE of 0.086 W/m2. The analysis of the 11 year running mean TSI reconstruction confirms the existence of a 105 year Gleissberg cycle. The TSI level of the current grand minimum is only about 0.15 W/m2 higher than the TSI level of the grand minimum in the beginning of the 18th century.

    Keywords: total solar irradiance; sunspot number

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    ips-dc.org REPORT: Greenwashing the Skies: How the Private Jet Lobby Uses “Sustainable Aviation Fuels” as a Marketing Ploy

    We find that so-called “sustainable” aviation fuels are largely a false solution.

    REPORT: Greenwashing the Skies: How the Private Jet Lobby Uses “Sustainable Aviation Fuels” as a Marketing Ploy
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    www.nature.com 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years - Nature

    Including an exceptionally warm Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer1,2, 2023 has been reported as the hottest year on record3-5. Contextualizing recent anthropogenic warming against past natural variability is nontrivial, however, because the sparse 19th century meteorological records tend to be too war...

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    thereader.mitpress.mit.edu The Collapse Is Coming. Will Humanity Adapt?

    An evolutionary biologist and a science fiction writer walk into a bar... and mull over survival.

    The Collapse Is Coming. Will Humanity Adapt?
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    thehonestsorcerer.substack.com Musings on the Nature of Technology

    Recently I have been on a four-day hiking trip, completing another 80 km (~50 mile) stretch of the 1171 km National Blue Trail running across my tiny country. This gave me plenty of time to tune into and ponder on the many podcasts I downloaded previously, but never had the time to listen to.

    Musings on the Nature of Technology
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    Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming - Nature Geoscience (2019)

    www.nature.com Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming - Nature Geoscience

    Stratocumulus cloud decks—which cool the Earth’s surface by shading it from sunlight, and are prevalent in the subtropics—break up into scattered clouds when CO2 levels rise above 1,200 ppm in large-eddy simulations that explicitly resolve cloud dynamics.

    Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming - Nature Geoscience

    Abstract

    Stratocumulus clouds cover 20% of the low-latitude oceans and are especially prevalent in the subtropics. They cool the Earth by shading large portions of its surface from sunlight. However, as their dynamical scales are too small to be resolvable in global climate models, predictions of their response to greenhouse warming have remained uncertain. Here we report how stratocumulus decks respond to greenhouse warming in large-eddy simulations that explicitly resolve cloud dynamics in a representative subtropical region. In the simulations, stratocumulus decks become unstable and break up into scattered clouds when CO2 levels rise above 1,200 ppm. In addition to the warming from rising CO2 levels, this instability triggers a surface warming of about 8 K globally and 10 K in the subtropics. Once the stratocumulus decks have broken up, they only re-form once CO2 concentrations drop substantially below the level at which the instability first occurred. Climate transitions that arise from this instability may have contributed importantly to hothouse climates and abrupt climate changes in the geological past. Such transitions to a much warmer climate may also occur in the future if CO2 levels continue to rise.

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    lfpress.com Dyer: Unprecedented warming could be ocean feedback

    The average global temperature for each of the past eleven months has been the hottest the world has experienced in that month.

    Dyer: Unprecedented warming could be ocean feedback
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    Atmospheric constraints on changing Arctic CH4 emissions

    Abstract and Figures

    Rapid warming in the Arctic has the potential to release vast reservoirs of carbon into the atmosphere as methane (CH4) resulting in a strong positive climate feedback. This raises the concern that, after a period of near-zero growth in atmospheric CH4 burden from 1999 to 2006, the increase since then may be in part related to increased Arctic emissions. Measurements of CH4 in background air samples provide useful, direct information to determine if Arctic CH4 emissions are increasing. One sensitive first-order indicator for large emission change is the Interpolar Difference, that is the difference in surface atmospheric annual means between polar northern and southern zones (53°–90°), which has varied interannually, but did not increase from 1992 to 2019. The Interpolar Difference has increased moderately during 2020–2022 when the global CH4 burden increased significantly, but not yet to its peak values in the late-1980s. For quantitative assessment of changing Arctic CH4 emissions, the atmospheric measurements must be combined with an atmospheric tracer transport model. Based on multiple studies including some using CH4 isotopes, it is clear that most of the increase in global atmospheric CH4 burden is driven by increased emissions from microbial sources in the tropics, and that Arctic emissions have not increased significantly since the beginning of our measurement record in 1983 through 2022.

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    The surging demand for data is guzzling Virginia’s water
  • IBM does 60 deg C watercooling which can be not a lot of thermal delta in nonarctic environments. It's a lot of km of infrastructure to vent directly if you want to dissipate a nuclear reactor's worth of power in a single site.

  • Americans Are Racking Up 'Phantom Debt' That Wall Street Can't Track
  • Global Financial Crisis 2 is definitely a fast component in the overall collapse process. Unaccounted consumer debt is a useful facet of a diagnostic. We don't know where exactly the spark will originate that will blow up GFC2. It could as well start there, though it's not very probable.

  • The surging demand for data is guzzling Virginia’s water

    grist.org The surging demand for data is guzzling Virginia's water Our digital lives are sucking up Virginia's water

    The state is home to the data center capital of the world. Can it handle AI's thirst?

    The surging demand for data is guzzling Virginia's water Our digital lives are sucking up Virginia's water
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    AMD's gaming graphics business looks like it's in terminal decline
  • They write

    "Of course, AMD is trying to get into the the AI training and inferencing game itself with the Instinct MI300 chip. And that, perhaps, is the main if modest cause for hope. If AMD can gain some traction in that huge market, it will not only be making lots of money, it will be in a position to do a similar thing to Nvidia and push some of that technology across into its gaming GPUs."

    which strikes me as incorrect. AMD MI is pretty widespread in HPC. With margins lower in the consumer market it makes sense to focus on HPC.

  • Paleocene/Eocene carbon feedbacks triggered by volcanic activity - Nature Communications (2021)

    www.nature.com Paleocene/Eocene carbon feedbacks triggered by volcanic activity - Nature Communications

    The Paleocene–Eocene boundary coincided with runaway global warming possibly analogous to future climate change, but the sources of greenhouse gasses have remained unresolved. Here, the authors reveal volcanism triggered initial warming, and subsequent carbon was released after crossing a tipping po...

    Paleocene/Eocene carbon feedbacks triggered by volcanic activity - Nature Communications

    Abstract

    The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a period of geologically-rapid carbon release and global warming ~56 million years ago. Although modelling, outcrop and proxy records suggest volcanic carbon release occurred, it has not yet been possible to identify the PETM trigger, or if multiple reservoirs of carbon were involved. Here we report elevated levels of mercury relative to organic carbon—a proxy for volcanism—directly preceding and within the early PETM from two North Sea sedimentary cores, signifying pulsed volcanism from the North Atlantic Igneous Province likely provided the trigger and subsequently sustained elevated CO2. However, the PETM onset coincides with a mercury low, suggesting at least one other carbon reservoir released significant greenhouse gases in response to initial warming. Our results support the existence of ‘tipping points’ in the Earth system, which can trigger release of additional carbon reservoirs and drive Earth’s climate into a hotter state.

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    The Oil and Energy Macro | Art Berman
  • I think we are already at the catabolic collapse stage where the elites are cannibalizing the periphery before the heartland. On the other hand the US has been also being stripped bare in patches for a while. So it is a simultaneous progressive process.

  • www.nature.com Flexible quasi-2D perovskite solar cells with high specific power and improved stability for energy-autonomous drones - Nature Energy

    Demonstration of high performance, upscaling and integration of ultra-lightweight perovskite solar cells are still rare. Hailegnaw et al. develop 2D perovskite solar cells based on methylbenzyl ammonium iodide with improved specific power and stability, showing scalability and integration in drones.

    Flexible quasi-2D perovskite solar cells with high specific power and improved stability for energy-autonomous drones - Nature Energy

    Abstract

    Perovskite solar cells are a promising technology for emerging photovoltaic applications that require mechanical compliance and high specific power. However, the devices suffer from poor operational stability. Here we develop lightweight, thin (<2.5 μm), flexible and transparent-conductive-oxide-free quasi-two-dimensional perovskite solar cells by incorporating alpha-methylbenzyl ammonium iodide into the photoactive perovskite layer. We fabricate the devices directly on an ultrathin polymer foil coated with an alumina barrier layer to ensure environmental and mechanical stability without compromising weight and flexibility. We demonstrate a champion specific power of 44 W g−1 (average: 41 W g−1), an open-circuit voltage of 1.15 V and a champion efficiency of 20.1% (average: 18.1%). To show scalability, we fabricate a photovoltaic module consisting of 24 interconnected 1 cm2 solar cells and demonstrate energy-autonomous operation of a hybrid solar-powered quadcopter, while constituting only 1/400 of the drone’s weight. Our performance and stability demonstration of ultra-lightweight perovskite solar cells highlight their potential as portable and cost-effective sustainable energy harvesting devices.

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