2024 Republican Primary Calendar + Current Polling
Labor Day is now over and we move into the full political calendar.
I've put together a listing of the Republican Primary calendar, with dates, delegates and current polling so you can see everything in one place.
As we move out of the Primaries and into the General, I'll set up similar charts for the Presidential race and the Senate races. I'm not sure I personally have the juice to track 435 House races. :)
I'm seeing competing results on the number of delegates, so some states are more accurate than others. As I learn more, I will update the post.
There are a total of 2,467 Republican Delegates up for grabs, 2363 Pledged and 104 Unpledged. Unpledged delegates are bolded below.
1234 delegates (easy to remember!) are needed to win the nomination. Pledged delegates are obligated to support the candidate nominated by their Primary or Caucus. Unpledged delegates can support whoever they would like.
2 states (Wyoming and Pennsylvania) have both Pledged and Unpledged delegates, they are divided with a / mark.
Poll Data comes from fivethirtyeight.com, I've selected the poll that is both the most recent AND has the most complete slate of candidates. It didn't seem fair to compare polls that only had Trump / Desantis vs. a poll with 9 or 10 candidates.
Some of these polls are SUPER old though, from before when Desantis announced, take them with a pound of salt. Will update regularly.
One interesting takeaway - Beyond Trump and Desantis, Mike Pence is the most popular 3rd choice, being listed 11 times and Niki Haley is just behind at 8 times.
If you are familiar with my You Are Here posts for Trump trial dates, those are NOT included here for the simple reasons that a) I didn't want the added clutter, and b) with the exception of the E. Jean Carrol damages ruling on 1/15, there's no way the trials will be over in a day. They will roll on for months.
I wanted to put this together because I see far, far, too many headlines that start with "In a national poll..."
We don't have national elections. Everything is determined state by state. Anytime you see something lead with "In a national poll..." you can likely safely disregard it.
Ahead in Alabama, but that poll is from January so I wouldn't count on it, and there's another recent poll which has Ramaswany in 2nd and Desantis in 3rd.