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The Needle: Live 2024 Presidential Election Forecast

www.nytimes.com Live Presidential Forecast

Follow our real-time estimates to see who’s ahead in the race between Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump.

Live Presidential Forecast

The New York Times predicts a Trump victory. The say the probability of a Trump victory is 90%.

Edit: Probability has dropped to 89% now, if that makes you feel better.

Edit: Now it’s 93%.

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