U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that while Ukraine has recaptured half the territory that Russia initially seized in its invasion, Kyiv faced "a very hard fight" to win back more.
I guess if you include the territory that was very briefly held when Russia was making a push into Kyev, that's true, but the lines in the East have held pretty steady since the early days of the war.
Short of bringing US-style air superiority to play there, I can't see that they'll gain much in the near term.
I think the play needs to be a stalemate/slow advance until Putin dies. His successor will either accelerate or withdraw imo. Can’t bleed resources like that forever and remain in power, Putin is grandfathered in but the new guy won’t be. Unfortunately Putin could die tomorrow or in ten years. Hopefully it’s sooner than later.
Ukraine definitely has political stability and morale as good advantages. They're also continually getting additional military support as time goes on.
The hardest part of the counteroffensive is the first part, they're pushing into the most heavily defended and fortified territory held by Russia. It will obviously be slow going, until eventually they break through and progress will happen more rapidly after that.
That was never going to happen. The lines have to strongly defended. But it is no assurance of defeat. It only increases the expense and time to recover. And once Ukrainians have some air force capabilities their combined arms offensive capabilities will be much greater.
F16's won't give Ukraine much of an advantage until sufficient numbers of pilots are a trained. There are two weapons that could immediately change the battlefield landscape. GLSDB's and ATACM's are long range precision bombs that would allow Ukraine to target Russian supply lines and ammunition stores far behind the front lines, including into Crimea. They both have backup inertial guidance systems in order to mitigate GPS jamming.. which is a big problem for their current guided munitions.
The problem with F-16's is that when they're inevitably shot down, the videos will be all over the net and it will look awful from a spend perspective.