If Polling Error Matches 2016 and 2020, Trump Is Ahead In 2024
If Polling Error Matches 2016 and 2020, Trump Is Ahead In 2024
Three caution points for Democrats...
- Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
- Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
- Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May
This is your regular reminder that the only poll that matters is on November 5th
also early voting is a thing in most states. So take the whole week and vote when it's convenient for you. That' means Saturday as well.
Then why did you post this shit if these polls don’t matter? Be consistent.
Some folks are motivated by good news and momentum
Some folks are motivated by fear and uncertainty
Just covering all the bases.
OP is right folks. If not for yourself vote for the women in your life. Help protect their right to govern their own bodies
Let's add to the list, almost four years of operatives infiltrating their way into the election certification process. Not to get too tinfoil hatty, but the addiction denial strategy almost worked last time, and while the same team that orchestrated it no longer occupied the White house, state officials open to the scheme likely won't make the same mistakes this time.
It's a different election now with Harris taking the Dem nomination, but 2020 was decided by about 40k votes spread across a few key states. The same polarization that makes polling almost impossible to do accurately also means people's opinions are equally hard to change. Don't try. Instead, focus your efforts on mobilizing voters to turn out. Organize and make a plan to get yourself to the polls and to bring a friend. Check vote.gov and make sure you're still registered and make sure the reasonable people in your life have too! Uncle ivermectin isn't changing his mind about the trans panic, but there's going to be a significant portion of the population that just doesn't have time to vote between working the jobs to stay afloat. Get them a mail in ballot!
I've checked my registration about 25 times this month after learning I had mysteriously dropped from the rolls in a swing state. Don't let some jackass take your opportunity to vote away. It may be our last change to finally stop hearing about every single stupid thing that comes out of the mouths of the worst people in government. Winning is the only way to fix what's broken in our system.
If
And if I read these tea leaves right, and interpret the look of those bird intestines...
How about the caution point of POLLS ARE USELESS?
And FYI Trump is waaaaay less popular now. My neighborhood is a maga stronghold. Not a single Trump flag by any house this year, but plenty of Kamala (there were no Biden signs here last election).
Maybe spend your time doing something that isn’t as useless as posting about polls
They're not totally useless, they're just useless as a prediction mechanism. You can still use them to examine change over time.
In other words, polls can never tell you who is likely to win, they're terrible at that. But by looking at changes in polling over time, you can see how attitudes change over time, which can be useful in certain contexts.
I’m in a battleground state and haven’t seen a single Harris (or Biden) sign. Just more and more Trump signs going up as we get closer to the election.
Don’t get complacent.
“Here’s some doomer poll data, but I put in a comment that the polls don’t matter” is a heck of a contradiction.
Real Clear Politics - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)
Information for Real Clear Politics:
MBFC: Right-Center - Credibility: Medium - Factual Reporting: Mostly Factual - United States of America
Wikipedia about this sourceSearch topics on Ground.News
Ooh, this is the first time I've seen a source reported as having "Medium" credibility by MBFC. Usually it's "High" or "Very High." Funny that the first time I see this is for a source that's reported to have a right wing bias. Kinda telling, that.EDIT: Well, I'm a big smelly idiot. Read the response to this comment. I should always read the linked article before making remarks like this.
For what it’s worth this is just Real Clear Politics summarizing a CNN video
Here is the summary on CNN from the bot:
MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: Mostly Factual - United States of America
Wikipedia about this source