Dumb. All because of a bad night that the media turned into a storm. Real world performance metrics were actually quite good for Joe. The Republican candidate says stuff on par with a semi-comatose baboon every time a microphone is in front of him. Supporters of this are oblivious to how much seething sexism and racism lies just under the surface in the US. This was a big part of how we got into this mess in the first place and why estimates for Hillary's success were so far off. It will be an incredible win if she pulls this off, but it's just not going to happen.
It doesn't sound impossible. It makes perfect sense, except look what happened to Hillary. I work in a role where I'm exposed to rural Americans and if you talk to them it's incredible how the subtle prejudices start to come out.
Also, polls this early are notoriously off base.