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Nate Silver's 2024 election model is out. Currently assigning Trump a 65% chance.

www.natesilver.net The presidential election isn't a toss-up

As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president’s favor.

The presidential election isn't a toss-up
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  • This exact poll had me very worried before last night’s debate.

    Now, I am concerned it’ll get even worse.